I think starmer will win but it'll be a lot closer and his majority a lot smaller than it should be. I'm sure the Tories will have some success mobilising the immigration issue in traditional red wall areas just as they did with brexit. After yesterday's fairly mean budget I think there will be a cynical 'give away' one raising tax thresholds etc before the GE to effectively bribe the electorate, and if they do get inflation down to under 3% it may almost feel like economic good times.
Finally, labour in 97 held about 50 seats in Scotland - they currently hold 1. I can't see them achieving that sort of swing against the SNP up there.