General Election - 4th July 2024

[waspish]

Fcuk me just looked when the latest these scum can have the next election!

The last general election took place on 12 December 2019. The maximum term of a UK parliament is five years from the day on which it first met.

Given that the current Parliament first met on Tuesday 17 December 2019, it will automatically dissolve on Tuesday 17 December 2024, unless it has been dissolved sooner by the King.

Polling day would then be expected to take place 25 days later, and should be held no later than Tuesday 24 January 2025. Since 1935 elections have typically been held on a Thursday, although this is not a hard-and-fast rule.

 

[threespires]

There's another option

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Vote For Insanity

www.loonyparty.com

But that link says 'Vote For Insanity', I'd have thought people might want something different next time round?

 

[lazerblue]

There's another option

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party

Vote For Insanity

www.loonyparty.com

Sir T Fied, spat me brew out, brilliant!

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I think starmer will win but it'll be a lot closer and his majority a lot smaller than it should be. I'm sure the Tories will have some success mobilising the immigration issue in traditional red wall areas just as they did with brexit. After yesterday's fairly mean budget I think there will be a cynical 'give away' one raising tax thresholds etc before the GE to effectively bribe the electorate, and if they do get inflation down to under 3% it may almost feel like economic good times.
Finally, labour in 97 held about 50 seats in Scotland - they currently hold 1. I can't see them achieving that sort of swing against the SNP up there.

I’m not convinced the Tories actually want to win (or think they can). Hunt put almost all of his ’spending‘, save the pension bung to the very wealthy, into 2025, never mind 2024. What they currently seem to be doing, and I’ve never seen it in many years of observing politics, is setting traps everywhere for the next government. They have an absolutely terrible bunch of MP’s as well, so they’ll cull many of them, find a new leader and regroup for 2030.
If only Starmer had the balls to reform the electoral system, you’d have seen a very different budget yesterday. Electoral reform will shut the Tories out forever and, given their relative lack of support compared to the rest, would be a brilliant thing to do. He won’t, because he’s firmly part of the establishment that continues to suggest we have something approaching a democracy….

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I’m not convinced the Tories actually want to win (or think they can). Hunt put almost all of his ’spending‘, save the pension bung to the very wealthy, into 2025, never mind 2024. What they currently seem to be doing, and I’ve never seen it in many years of observing politics, is setting traps everywhere for the next government. They have an absolutely terrible bunch of MP’s as well, so they’ll cull many of them, find a new leader and regroup for 2030.
If only Starmer had the balls to reform the electoral system, you’d have seen a very different budget yesterday. Electoral reform will shut the Tories out forever and, given their relative lack of support compared to the rest, would be a brilliant thing to do. He won’t, because he’s firmly part of the establishment that continues to suggest we have something approaching a democracy….

Agree with all of that. I think the Tories at this point are thinking damage limitation and trying to make the labour majority smaller rather than winning.

 

[Corky]

Finally, labour in 97 held about 50 seats in Scotland - they currently hold 1. I can't see them achieving that sort of swing against the SNP up there.

When Labour have been elected they didn't need any Scottish seats since the early 1974 election.

 

[bluenova]

I’m not convinced the Tories actually want to win (or think they can). Hunt put almost all of his ’spending‘, save the pension bung to the very wealthy, into 2025, never mind 2024. What they currently seem to be doing, and I’ve never seen it in many years of observing politics, is setting traps everywhere for the next government. They have an absolutely terrible bunch of MP’s as well, so they’ll cull many of them, find a new leader and regroup for 2030.
If only Starmer had the balls to reform the electoral system, you’d have seen a very different budget yesterday. Electoral reform will shut the Tories out forever and, given their relative lack of support compared to the rest, would be a brilliant thing to do. He won’t, because he’s firmly part of the establishment that continues to suggest we have something approaching a democracy….

Recent elections suggest that's not the case.

We had a coalition with the LDs in 2010, and they'd have done it again in 2015. In 2010, remember that the LDs + Lab could have got a majority with just one of the smaller parties, but the Tories were seen as the "winners".

In 2017, the LDs ruled out coalitions, but said they wouldn't work with Corbyn, but refused to say they wouldn't prop up the Tories.

In 2015 the Tory+UKIP+Unionist vote was over 50%, and this "non-progressive" vote has been in the high 40s at most elections recently.

For Labour to have led a coalition in the last couple of elections, they'd have had to get the LDs, SNP, Greens and PC and still would have a wafer thin majority. It's unlikely they'd have been able to get a formal coalition (impossible with Corbyn in charge as so many had said they wouldn't support him), and a confidence and supply would be almost impossible if everyone had to be on board for almost every vote.

 

[bluenova]

I think starmer will win but it'll be a lot closer and his majority a lot smaller than it should be. I'm sure the Tories will have some success mobilising the immigration issue in traditional red wall areas just as they did with brexit. After yesterday's fairly mean budget I think there will be a cynical 'give away' one raising tax thresholds etc before the GE to effectively bribe the electorate, and if they do get inflation down to under 3% it may almost feel like economic good times.
Finally, labour in 97 held about 50 seats in Scotland - they currently hold 1. I can't see them achieving that sort of swing against the SNP up there.

Most polling companies have said that Labour need around 13% lead to get a majority of one, so they'll be doing well to get that. Given that a lot of the current lead is made up of 2019 Tories saying they don't know how they'll vote, then any kind of majority is tricky.

The more positive pollsters are suggesting Labour could get away with being 8% ahead, and there is the big unknown of tactical voting. While I know many on here don't approve of Starmer no longer courting the left of the party, he had made Labour acceptable to a lot more LD voters, and that means we may see the kind of tactical voting that Blair had, which could wipe out the Tories.

With Scotland, as others have pointed out, Labour Govt's having really needed those votes, but the latest polling, and current turmoil in the SNP, suggests that a limited comeback is possible.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Recent elections suggest that's not the case.

We had a coalition with the LDs in 2010, and they'd have done it again in 2015. In 2010, remember that the LDs + Lab could have got a majority with just one of the smaller parties, but the Tories were seen as the "winners".

In 2017, the LDs ruled out coalitions, but said they wouldn't work with Corbyn, but refused to say they wouldn't prop up the Tories.

In 2015 the Tory+UKIP+Unionist vote was over 50%, and this "non-progressive" vote has been in the high 40s at most elections recently.

For Labour to have led a coalition in the last couple of elections, they'd have had to get the LDs, SNP, Greens and PC and still would have a wafer thin majority. It's unlikely they'd have been able to get a formal coalition (impossible with Corbyn in charge as so many had said they wouldn't support him), and a confidence and supply would be almost impossible if everyone had to be on board for almost every vote.

That’s all true but only because of our ridiculous FPTP voting system. A true coalition, with a more equal share of the power base is a completely unknown entity in this country.
Before the 2019 election, which was odd for a variety of well known reasons, almost 200 seats haven’t changed sides since WWII (1 in 10 haven’t moved since the end of WWI and there was no Labour Party then)!
In fact, if you counted equivalent predecessor seats some haven’t changed hands since the 1800’s.
54 Tory seats haven’t moved for well over a 100 years. East Devon has been a Tory seat since 1835…..
It means that almost 14 MILLION people are, effectively, in one part fiefdoms, with no opportunity to ‘vote them out if they’re no good‘, which we are conned into thinking is democracy. It’s not…

 

[TinFoilHat]

I think starmer will win but it'll be a lot closer and his majority a lot smaller than it should be. I'm sure the Tories will have some success mobilising the immigration issue in traditional red wall areas just as they did with brexit. After yesterday's fairly mean budget I think there will be a cynical 'give away' one raising tax thresholds etc before the GE to effectively bribe the electorate, and if they do get inflation down to under 3% it may almost feel like economic good times.
Finally, labour in 97 held about 50 seats in Scotland - they currently hold 1. I can't see them achieving that sort of swing against the SNP up there.

He'll be banking on whoever their next leader is fuck it up for SNP.

He's arrogant enough not to realise the Scots won't forgive Labour for supporting the B word.

Hung parliament again and the Yellow Tories going back to like the faithful battered housewife for a couple of shit cabinet positions.

I’m not convinced the Tories actually want to win (or think they can). Hunt put almost all of his ’spending‘, save the pension bung to the very wealthy, into 2025, never mind 2024. What they currently seem to be doing, and I’ve never seen it in many years of observing politics, is setting traps everywhere for the next government. They have an absolutely terrible bunch of MP’s as well, so they’ll cull many of them, find a new leader and regroup for 2030.
If only Starmer had the balls to reform the electoral system, you’d have seen a very different budget yesterday. Electoral reform will shut the Tories out forever and, given their relative lack of support compared to the rest, would be a brilliant thing to do. He won’t, because he’s firmly part of the establishment that continues to suggest we have something approaching a democracy….

I suspect they know another big economic crisis is heading out way and they want out for labour to be seen as the ones facilitating it.