Ok based on the following formula, this has given the winner 13 times in the last 18 years. This year it has come up with these horses.
If I've made a mistake, let me know and I'll edit the list:
Knock out any runner older than 11 or younger than 9 (88% of last 17
winners were aged 9-11yo)
Knock out any runner that has run in the last 16 days or had a break
of more than 56 days (100%)
Knock out any runner rated less than 136 (100%)
Knock out any runner carrying more than 11-06 (100%)
Knock out any runner that ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out (100%)
Knock out any runner with fewer than 3 starts this Season (100%)
Knock out any runner that has won more than 2 chase races this Season (100%)
Knock out any GB Bred runners (94%)
Knock out any runner that finished outside the top 8 last time out (88%)
Rocky Creek 10/1
First Lieutenant 20/1
Night in Milan 25/1
Al Co 28/1
Mon Parrain 50/1
Rebel Rebellion 50/1
--------------------------
Portrait King 80/1
Super Duty 100/1
Rubi Light 100/1
Gas Line Boy (100/1) is bang on the 56 days without a run.
Perhaps the ones above the dotted line may be the ones to focus on.
Good luck all.