How many trophies will we win?

[Marvin]

betfred just went 6/1, just in case anyone fancies it

A foolish bet. Work it out. You may disagree slightly but you'll end with about a 3 in a 100 hundred chance.

League: 0.6
FA Cup: 0.4
Champions League Quarters: 0.6
Champions League Semi: 0.50
CL Final: 0.4 (probably Barcelona)

All the above possibilities have to happen. Each game, except CL final will probably see City favourites and hence the indidivual odds of each leg working out are good, but they all have to happen, so multiplying out all the decimals you get around 0.03.

 

[Mancity1980]

Short answer: No.

Long Answer: No.

I think things have changed over the years. I can remember rooting for English teams (not the rags ever, the dippers when I was very young, early 1980s) in Europe. I loved it when little Norwich beat Munich away in the 90s (I think) but these days there is just so much hatred for others (not that I don’t enjoy ripping other teams and their fans!)

 

[dronefromsector7G]

A foolish bet. Work it out. You may disagree slightly but you'll end with about a 3 in a 100 hundred chance.

League: 0.6
FA Cup: 0.4
Champions League Quarters: 0.6
Champions League Semi: 0.50
CL Final: 0.4 (probably Barcelona)

All the above possibilities have to happen. Each game, except CL final will probably see City favourites and hence the indidivual odds of each leg working out are good, but they all have to happen, so multiplying out all the decimals you get around 0.03.

Nah. If we’re favourites for the two FA cup games, winning the league and getting through the two CL ties prior to the final then our overall odds of doing all three are still probably below 5/1.
Edit - 5/1 on wrapping up the FA cup and league plus reaching the CL final.

 

[Mr Partridge]

, IMAGINE THE END OF SEASON DVD HAHAHA

It will still be shit.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

If we do it I’ll run down Market Street with my tiny tackle out

 

[Mancity1980]

A foolish bet. Work it out. You may disagree slightly but you'll end with about a 3 in a 100 hundred chance.

League: 0.6
FA Cup: 0.4
Champions League Quarters: 0.6
Champions League Semi: 0.50
CL Final: 0.4 (probably Barcelona)

All the above possibilities have to happen. Each game, except CL final will probably see City favourites and hence the indidivual odds of each leg working out are good, but they all have to happen, so multiplying out all the decimals you get around 0.03.

Sorry mate, I am no expert on betting odds but using your data are the odds not 0.6X0.4X0.4 = 0.096 or approx. 10 to 1?

 

[Marvin]

Sorry mate, I am no expert on betting odds but using your data are the odds not 0.6X0.4X0.4 = 0.096 or approx. 10 to 1?

I broke it into 5 bits and gave odds on each. When you multiply them all out you get tiny, insignificant chance of City winning everything. If you feel that the overall chance of winning CL is 40% then you will be correct but I have it at around 12%.

If you are saying 60% chance of winning League, 40% chance of winning FA Cup and CL is 40% then your maths is good.

We differe because I split the CL into 3 bits. You've got CL odds at 40%, whereas I have them at 0.6 x 0.5 x 0.4 which is 12%. That's where we're different.

No one is right or wrong here. It's just a footballing call on likelihood of outcomes. A domestic treble is significant but unlikely, a quadruple almost impossible. I hope to be proven wrong.

 

[stonerblue]

Decided last week that this is on. Checked a bookies and they're offering 6/1. Shite.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Lock the thread. The OP has just killed any chance if it actually happening. :-) :-) :-)

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Sorry mate, I am no expert on betting odds but using your data are the odds not 0.6X0.4X0.4 = 0.096 or approx. 10 to 1?

Not using his estimations of our chances, no. He rates us at 40% chance to beat (in this case) Barcelona in the final. But we still need to get there. 60% chance of beating spurs and 50% chance of beating, let’s say Juventus, gives us a 12% chance of winning the champions league from this point. It all depends on how you rate our odds in each game. Personally, I’d rank it at 0.75 x 0.55 x 0.45, or a 18.5% chance of winning the whole thing.