How many trophies will we win?

Marvin said:
I broke it into 5 bits and gave odds on each. When you multiply them all out you get tiny, insignificant chance of City winning everything. If you feel that the overall chance of winning CL is 40% then you will be correct but I have it at around 12%.

If you are saying 60% chance of winning League, 40% chance of winning FA Cup and CL is 40% then your maths is good.

We differe because I split the CL into 3 bits. You've got CL odds at 40%, whereas I have them at 0.6 x 0.5 x 0.4 which is 12%. That's where we're different.

No one is right or wrong here. It's just a footballing call on likelihood of outcomes. A domestic treble is significant but unlikely, a quadruple almost impossible. I hope to be proven wrong.
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Oh I see, I didn’t realise the odds were your estimates. Personally I think you have unestimated our chances.
 
I'll type this slowly for the hard of hearing; "Community Shield". It hasn't been the "Charity Shield" since 2002.

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I would say fa cup 80 percent chance - league 50 percent chance and champions league 35 percent chance.

So not using a calculator and multiplying all 3 about a 13 percent chance. 100 / 13 - about 8-1.

But one game at a time.
 
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