How many trophies will we win?

Marvin said:
I broke it into 5 bits and gave odds on each. When you multiply them all out you get tiny, insignificant chance of City winning everything. If you feel that the overall chance of winning CL is 40% then you will be correct but I have it at around 12%.

If you are saying 60% chance of winning League, 40% chance of winning FA Cup and CL is 40% then your maths is good.

We differe because I split the CL into 3 bits. You've got CL odds at 40%, whereas I have them at 0.6 x 0.5 x 0.4 which is 12%. That's where we're different.

No one is right or wrong here. It's just a footballing call on likelihood of outcomes. A domestic treble is significant but unlikely, a quadruple almost impossible. I hope to be proven wrong.
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Oh I see, I didn’t realise the odds were your estimates. Personally I think you have unestimated our chances.
 
I'll type this slowly for the hard of hearing; "Community Shield". It hasn't been the "Charity Shield" since 2002.

tonysoprano3.jpg
 
Mate of mine put a tenner on in August at 125/1
Shit himself at Swansea last week..
 
I would say fa cup 80 percent chance - league 50 percent chance and champions league 35 percent chance.

So not using a calculator and multiplying all 3 about a 13 percent chance. 100 / 13 - about 8-1.

But one game at a time.
 
I would love it to happen but no.

April fixtures will screw us over. If we come through unscathed we deserve it all. Fuck all credit will be given mind.
 
I think all this quad talk is gonna end up with us thinking we had a disappointing season when we will have done really well
I think we need to win fa cup from here
Champions league is tough
Premier league I would really love to win but so many fixtures
I just feel other fans are talking up the quad just so they can take piss if/when we lose
Fuck em
 
worsleyweb said:
I would say fa cup 80 percent chance - league 50 percent chance and champions league 35 percent chance.

So not using a calculator and multiplying all 3 about a 13 percent chance. 100 / 13 - about 8-1.

But one game at a time.
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Just taking the most ridiculous of your suggestions there.

There are 3 ties to win the Champions League. Cube root of 35% is 70%. I can just about accept that you might think City have a 70% chance of beating Spurs, but a 70% chance of winning a semi-final, and 70% chance in the final where it could be Barcelona?

City are as likely as Barcelona to win the Champions League. There are eight sides in it. None of them have chances of more than about 20% of winning it. I'd say City and Barcelona have the best chance but nowhere near 35%. Multiply City's FA Cup and Premier League chances by our CL hopes decimate our overall chance of a quadruple.
 
Marvin said:
Just taking the most ridiculous of your suggestions there.

There are 3 ties to win the Champions League. Cube root of 35% is 70%. I can just about accept that you might think City have a 70% chance of beating Spurs, but a 70% chance of winning a semi-final, and 70% chance in the final where it could be Barcelona?

City are as likely as Barcelona to win the Champions League. There are eight sides in it. None of them have chances of more than about 20% of winning it. I'd say City and Barcelona have the best chance but nowhere near 35%. Multiply City's FA Cup and Premier League chances by our CL hopes decimate our overall chance of a quadruple.
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Bookies think my ridiculous odds are less ridiculous than yours.
 
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