HS2 - Cancel it now

remember arthur mann said:
@jimharri
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Lovebitesandeveryfing said:
HS1 was apparently well on time, and within budget. I can't help wondering the out-of-control budget on HS2 has a lot to do with inflated compensation on compulsory purchases. I wonder what the criteria are for controlling that and how it's negotiated. Because can the costing on materials and workforce alone be that far out of whack?
To be honest, I've got no strong opinion on either way, not being resident in the UK, and I'm sure that there's a lot that I don't understand about the complexities of this dossier. I'm just curious about the debate within the UK, and what the groundswell of support for/opposition to this project is.
FWIW, by way of (inevitably limited) comparison: the extension of the TGV line down from Lyon to Marseille cost 5.6 billion euros (the SNFC in its communiqués says 3.8, but that's a spin, which doesn't take account of the full cost of constructing the new stations, the addition of the new rolling stock, and a number of other factors, apparently). The distance is 315 kms, give or take a few (the distance from London to Birmingham is 190 kms, more or less). Nobody, I believe, would now say that that was a wasted project. But France is a much bigger country than England, in surface area (even adding Scotland, Wales and N.I. doesn't bring the UK close) and that obviously made it easier to get done (although there was of course local resistance),and it's simply much emptier. I'm constantly struck by that whenever I drive in the UK. There are people everywhere on the roads, 24/7. That said, there were some stunning bridges and tunnels to get built, because of the terrain, so there were considerable engineering problems to deal with. In my experience, the trains are constantly full or close to, especially in summer, where half of northern Europe heads to southern Europe for the sun. And not only in cars and planes.
Insofar as I can judge, the general feeling in France over the past 40 years or so is that the TGV network has been a resounding success. Paris-Lyon was the first, 1981. Everybody knew that if it wasn't going to be trains, then it was going to be cars. And that meant new motorways (which have, in some cases, been built anyway), and all that that implies. People now want to be able to move around, all the time.
Personally, I love taking them, but then I just like travelling by trains. I've also taken them in Spain and I think they're great.
However, one clear effect of the TGV Méditerranée construction, joining Marseille and Montpellier to Paris (and indeed beyond, to Lille, Amsterdam and London) by relatively swift and easy means, was to bump up house prices very significantly in both southern cities. I noticed it immediately, and it put property out of my range, just before I could buy. Suddenly, it became relatively easy for Parisians to buy a little flat/house in the sun and pop down for weekends. Don't suppose, somehow, that that will be a factor for Londoners as far as Manchester is concerned (!). Still less, Birmingham. But be sure of it, HS2, if it ever arrives, will affect property values, because suddenly commuting from Birmingham on a daily basis will become easily envisageable (some people already do it, I'm told), and even from Manchester, although that would be a stretch.
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In some parts of France there is no rail network apart from the TGV. Brittany for example has TVG around the “edge” but absolutely nothing else.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
In some parts of France there is no rail network apart from the TGV. Brittany for example has TVG around the “edge” but absolutely nothing else.
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That's absolutely true, and of course the ordinary rail network has been somewhat neglected in favour of the high speed one. Although for the last ten years the TERs (regional trains) have been being renewed and the carriages are now often more comfortable than the TGVs (high speed long distance trains). But don't forget that the rail network in France was never anything like as dense as it was in Britain, and especially England, from the 19th century onwards. Before the Beeching cuts the coverage of the rail network was easily the densest in the world, and the branch lines went into the most weird and wonderful places. Even after Beeching it was still highly respectable, although the tracks and signalling were somewhat neglected through the sixties and seventies..
 
Lovebitesandeveryfing said:
That's absolutely true, and of course the ordinary rail network has been somewhat neglected in favour of the high speed one. Although for the last ten years the TERs (regional trains) have been being renewed and the carriages are now often more comfortable than the TGVs (high speed long distance trains). But don't forget that the rail network in France was never anything like as dense as it was in Britain, and especially England, from the 19th century onwards. Before the Beeching cuts the coverage of the rail network was easily the densest in the world, and the branch lines went into the most weird and wonderful places. Even after Beeching it was still highly respectable, although the tracks and signalling were somewhat neglected through the sixties and seventies..
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France suffered its own “Beeching” axe.
All over Brittany there used to be a spider web network of regional lines. There are scores of old stations dotted everywhere. If they had survived it would have now been an amazing tourist network.
Instead it’s a desert. If you have no car you are fucked. Buses are so rare we play spot the bus competitions when we are there.
5 points if you spot one. 10 if it’s actually moving!
 
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And because of the enquiry later this year, the truth about costs is starting to come out and it'll be at least five years behind schedule

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the current scheme requires a total budget - including contingency - in the range of £72 to £78 billion, again in 2015 prices.

Adjusting by construction cost inflation, the range set out in Allan Cook’s report is equivalent to £81 to £88 billion in 2019 prices, against a budget equivalent to £62.4 billion.

 
I have said before that with the money spent on HS2 you could refurbish every piece of track and replace every train and then we would have an up to date system that was comfortable and run on time.
 
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