HS1 was apparently well on time, and within budget. I can't help wondering the out-of-control budget on HS2 has a lot to do with inflated compensation on compulsory purchases. I wonder what the criteria are for controlling that and how it's negotiated. Because can the costing on materials and workforce alone be that far out of whack?
To be honest, I've got no strong opinion on either way, not being resident in the UK, and I'm sure that there's a lot that I don't understand about the complexities of this dossier. I'm just curious about the debate within the UK, and what the groundswell of support for/opposition to this project is.
FWIW, by way of (inevitably limited) comparison: the extension of the TGV line down from Lyon to Marseille cost 5.6 billion euros (the SNFC in its communiqués says 3.8, but that's a spin, which doesn't take account of the full cost of constructing the new stations, the addition of the new rolling stock, and a number of other factors, apparently). The distance is 315 kms, give or take a few (the distance from London to Birmingham is 190 kms, more or less). Nobody, I believe, would now say that that was a wasted project. But France is a much bigger country than England, in surface area (even adding Scotland, Wales and N.I. doesn't bring the UK close) and that obviously made it easier to get done (although there was of course local resistance),and it's simply much emptier. I'm constantly struck by that whenever I drive in the UK. There are people everywhere on the roads, 24/7. That said, there were some stunning bridges and tunnels to get built, because of the terrain, so there were considerable engineering problems to deal with. In my experience, the trains are constantly full or close to, especially in summer, where half of northern Europe heads to southern Europe for the sun. And not only in cars and planes.
Insofar as I can judge, the general feeling in France over the past 40 years or so is that the TGV network has been a resounding success. Paris-Lyon was the first, 1981. Everybody knew that if it wasn't going to be trains, then it was going to be cars. And that meant new motorways (which have, in some cases, been built anyway), and all that that implies. People now want to be able to move around, all the time.
Personally, I love taking them, but then I just like travelling by trains. I've also taken them in Spain and I think they're great.
However, one clear effect of the TGV Méditerranée construction, joining Marseille and Montpellier to Paris (and indeed beyond, to Lille, Amsterdam and London) by relatively swift and easy means, was to bump up house prices very significantly in both southern cities. I noticed it immediately, and it put property out of my range, just before I could buy. Suddenly, it became relatively easy for Parisians to buy a little flat/house in the sun and pop down for weekends. Don't suppose, somehow, that that will be a factor for Londoners as far as Manchester is concerned (!). Still less, Birmingham. But be sure of it, HS2, if it ever arrives, will affect property values, because suddenly commuting from Birmingham on a daily basis will become easily envisageable (some people already do it, I'm told), and even from Manchester, although that would be a stretch.
