Inflation - when is this going to end?

[BerkshireBlue]

I actually understand the “situation,” but that’s not what the question was.

Thats bollocks for the vast majority of people, but I’ll go with it for you for your argument…

IF 30% of households have MARGINAL £0 to spend, that sounds BAD, but it is meaningless to the fact that the things that they DO have to spend their money on already are going UP! Why? For the reasons I cited, which means the £0 households have choices to make. Go without the iPhone, car, holiday, night out, takeaway OR pay their electricity bill! I get it! Been poor.

Raising rates is a blunt object and does what it says on the box. The problem is not the supply-demand equation that creates the inflation and requires the rise in interest rates, but the underlying societal issues that must be addressed as these changes take place. I watch Turkey with interest, as they take an opposite tack, albeit from a starting point that already has double digit interest rates!

The societal issue of high energy costs at a time of multi-billion pound profits in the energy sector is especially galling, but not a problem that is going to be solved by the MACROeconomic issues of a global energy market.

It is incontrovertible that the global energy market is driven by supply and demand, both at the pump and through the meter (because electrical/gas energy has to be “made” somehow), even if Britain’s micro issues require a local response.

The marginal dollar/pound is ALWAYS where the supply-demand imbalance has the greatest effect, and can often drive personal consumption choices. Your point appears to be in a situation where there is NO CHOICE, inflation causes are irrelevant. I would hypothesize that they have a much larger relevance because of their lack of choice.

There seems to be some cross confusion on the macro-micro effects and causes of the pain, but the macro drivers are what LEAD to the micro problems for many, especially those without marginal purchasing power or the ability to choose. You believe 30% of Britain is currently experiencing the negative effects of the lack of both (marginal purchasing power & choice), which may well be true, but that “fact” (I have not checked it) is literally being driven by the “textbook” description I gave you and it’s after effects in the macro environment.

I hope that wasn’t too obtuse, but I think it is an important discussion, especially for millions of families who may not be in the position to exercise their free market will.

absolute drivel and doesn't answer any of my questions

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Theres plenty of energy, just insufficient in a useable form. Regardless of the current megalomaniac in Russia, energy demand is on an upwards trend worldwide, whilst the need to reduce our dependency on hydrocarbons increases. This inevitably leads to an increase in cost in the short term (whilst infrastructure is built) which is currently compounded by the West’s response to Putins aggression.
I’m sure out in the colonies, at the moment, all is wonderful whilst they pump millions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere and employ their vast oil reserves. But the party isn’t gonna last forever, turmoil in Europe will hit the US economy hard, likewise fail to reduce CO2 emissions and virtually all of the eastern seaboard will be underwater.

While your agenda clearly comes through, there’s not much to disagree with.

The problem, if you’ll pardon the pun, is that tankers take a long time to turnaround, even if you have a willing Captain at the wheel. A less than willing Captain makes it even harder to accomplish, especially when many of the passengers don’t care where they are going on imploring him NOT to turn!

Quandary.

As for the colonies, as you derogatorily put it, there is enough pain to go around. Lest you have missed it, we are only waiting on the plague of locusts to round out the current apocalyptic climate events, and that’s before the hurricane season gets warmed up. I’d expect a few Gulf Coast hurricanes to only further exacerbate oil prices, even if they don’t come onshore and put a refinery or two out of commission and further drive up gasoline prices.

I’ve bought two hybrid vehicles in the last year (Toyota RAV4 Hybrid & Honda Accord Hybrid Sport) for my kids, and have two electric cars (Tesla Model Y & VW ID4) on order for me and my wife, respectively, in addition to already driving a Chevy Volt (Opel Ampera), which illustrates how I feel about oil.

In addition, I’m currently evaluating the cost of a solar system in the house, with the desire being 100%, but our future longevity in this home being the only stumbling block. Ideally, a solar powered home, with storage for use by the cars, is our endgame, but it might have to wait until we move in a few years due to the time to recoup our costs, even with the current 30% tax rebate on installation costs.

So, that’s where I am on energy, climate control, and the future.

As you have probably figured out, I’m not the Captain of this particular ship, but I’m one of the passengers begging a willing Captain to turn the ship around, as opposed to the millions in the US pushing the Captain to not only stay on this course, but push up the throttles!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

absolute drivel and doesn't answer any of my questions

Still searching for the question mark in your post, so I’ll have to leave you to worry about the 30% of UK households with £0 and what inflation is and is not.

Good luck, we are all counting on you!

 

[BerkshireBlue]

Still searching for the question mark in your post, so I’ll have to leave you to worry about the 30% of UK households with £0 and what inflation is and is not.

Good luck, we are all counting on you!

There's two in there ffs

 

[BerkshireBlue]

While your agenda clearly comes through, there’s not much to disagree with.

The problem, if you’ll pardon the pun, is that tankers take a long time to turnaround, even if you have a willing Captain at the wheel. A less than willing Captain makes it even harder to accomplish, especially when many of the passengers don’t care where they are going on imploring him NOT to turn!

Quandary.

As for the colonies, as you derogatorily put it, there is enough pain to go around. Lest you have missed it, we are only waiting on the plague of locusts to round out the current apocalyptic climate events, and that’s before the hurricane season gets warmed up. I’d expect a few Gulf Coast hurricanes to only further exacerbate oil prices, even if they don’t come onshore and put a refinery or two out of commission and further drive up gasoline prices.

I’ve bought two hybrid vehicles in the last year (Toyota RAV4 Hybrid & Honda Accord Hybrid Sport) for my kids, and have two electric cars (Tesla Model Y & VW ID4) on order for me and my wife, respectively, in addition to already driving a Chevy Volt (Opel Ampera), which illustrates how I feel about oil.

In addition, I’m currently evaluating the cost of a solar system in the house, with the desire being 100%, but our future longevity in this home being the only stumbling block. Ideally, a solar powered home, with storage for use by the cars, is our endgame, but it might have to wait until we move in a few years due to the time to recoup our costs, even with the current 30% tax rebate on installation costs.

So, that’s where I am on energy, climate control, and the future.

As you have probably figured out, I’m not the Captain of this particular ship, but I’m one of the passengers begging a willing Captain to turn the ship around, as opposed to the millions in the US pushing the Captain to not only stay on this course, but push up the throttles!

And this demonstrates far removed you are from knowing anything about the UK markets. I'm not having a go but you don't have a clue what's going on in the streets here

 

[paulchapo]

What I do find perplexing is people are still spending money, going to pubs/restaurants spending a fortune, going on holidays that are not cheap and still using there cars, the roads are worse than ever.

I am not advocating people not enjoying themselves, far from it but some people are just not cutting back seemingly?
My change is cut my use of a car and work more from home and no holidays.
Are people just using credit cards?

Well paid jobs probably. You'll also have people who it hasn't quite registered yet, or they are thinking fuck it I'm having a final fling

 

[Kompany Car]

While your agenda clearly comes through, there’s not much to disagree with.

The problem, if you’ll pardon the pun, is that tankers take a long time to turnaround, even if you have a willing Captain at the wheel. A less than willing Captain makes it even harder to accomplish, especially when many of the passengers don’t care where they are going on imploring him NOT to turn!

Quandary.

As for the colonies, as you derogatorily put it, there is enough pain to go around. Lest you have missed it, we are only waiting on the plague of locusts to round out the current apocalyptic climate events, and that’s before the hurricane season gets warmed up. I’d expect a few Gulf Coast hurricanes to only further exacerbate oil prices, even if they don’t come onshore and put a refinery or two out of commission and further drive up gasoline prices.

I’ve bought two hybrid vehicles in the last year (Toyota RAV4 Hybrid & Honda Accord Hybrid Sport) for my kids, and have two electric cars (Tesla Model Y & VW ID4) on order for me and my wife, respectively, in addition to already driving a Chevy Volt (Opel Ampera), which illustrates how I feel about oil.

In addition, I’m currently evaluating the cost of a solar system in the house, with the desire being 100%, but our future longevity in this home being the only stumbling block. Ideally, a solar powered home, with storage for use by the cars, is our endgame, but it might have to wait until we move in a few years due to the time to recoup our costs, even with the current 30% tax rebate on installation costs.

So, that’s where I am on energy, climate control, and the future.

As you have probably figured out, I’m not the Captain of this particular ship, but I’m one of the passengers begging a willing Captain to turn the ship around, as opposed to the millions in the US pushing the Captain to not only stay on this course, but push up the throttles!

Quick question (well maybe not so quick).

The 2008 financial crisis resulted in trillions being pumped into economies, subsequently the response to Covid was similar. However during Covid, GDP fell substantially across the developed world. I’m by no means an economist but hasn’t that resulted in the velocity of money within the economy to go out of kilter. Money pumped in, with constrained spending (e.g no new cars, no leisure activities etc) resulting in money being saved. Then coming out of Covid, a splurge of spending in the last 12 months against a backdrop of low interest rate providing even more cheap money.

My background is in Applied Physics but that sounds like a very unstable system with no damping to me.

I’m sure there must be some mathematical modelling applied which looks at the stability of the economy. But to me as a relative layman, the monetary policy since the 2008 crisis seems mad, almost setting up a perfect cycle of boom and bust for years to come.

 

[Kompany Car]

Well paid jobs probably. You'll also have people who it hasn't quite registered yet, or they are thinking fuck it I'm having a final fling

It’s really showing the disparity and inequality between the top 10% and everyone else, and I say that as someone who is probably well within the top 5% from an earnings point of view.
Whilst I sound like a Turkey voting for Christmas, a further tapered increase in tax on high earners (say 80k and above) might help readdress the balance or at least make those with the widest shoulders bear more of the cost. Increasing capital gains tax would also be a step in the right direction.

 

[paulchapo]

It’s really showing the disparity and inequality between the top 10% and everyone else, and I say that as someone who is probably well within the top 5% from an earnings point of view.
Whilst I sound like a Turkey voting for Christmas, a further tapered increase in tax on high earners (say 80k and above) might help readdress the balance or at least make those with the widest shoulders bear more of the cost. Increasing capital gains tax would also be a step in the right direction.

I know. There are lots of high earners who an extra couple of pence in the pound tax wouldn't really impact them. Also if energy companies are making billions in profit they can't justify a price hike never mind one so large. I don't care what agreement was in place nobody saw this coming so it needs to change. The wealth disparity is a scandal in this country. When you have a rich company like Amazon offering low paid workers 35p an hour pay rise you know it's fucked. We all saw in the pandemic who are vital to the running of this country and its not rich CEO's.

 

[pride in battle]

I actually understand the “situation,” but that’s not what the question was.

Thats bollocks for the vast majority of people, but I’ll go with it for you for your argument…

IF 30% of households have MARGINAL £0 to spend, that sounds BAD, but it is meaningless to the fact that the things that they DO have to spend their money on already are going UP! Why? For the reasons I cited, which means the £0 households have choices to make. Go without the iPhone, car, holiday, night out, takeaway OR pay their electricity bill! I get it! Been poor.

Raising rates is a blunt object and does what it says on the box. The problem is not the supply-demand equation that creates the inflation and requires the rise in interest rates, but the underlying societal issues that must be addressed as these changes take place. I watch Turkey with interest, as they take an opposite tack, albeit from a starting point that already has double digit interest rates!

The societal issue of high energy costs at a time of multi-billion pound profits in the energy sector is especially galling, but not a problem that is going to be solved by the MACROeconomic issues of a global energy market.

It is incontrovertible that the global energy market is driven by supply and demand, both at the pump and through the meter (because electrical/gas energy has to be “made” somehow), even if Britain’s micro issues require a local response.

The marginal dollar/pound is ALWAYS where the supply-demand imbalance has the greatest effect, and can often drive personal consumption choices. Your point appears to be in a situation where there is NO CHOICE, inflation causes are irrelevant. I would hypothesize that they have a much larger relevance because of their lack of choice.

There seems to be some cross confusion on the macro-micro effects and causes of the pain, but the macro drivers are what LEAD to the micro problems for many, especially those without marginal purchasing power or the ability to choose. You believe 30% of Britain is currently experiencing the negative effects of the lack of both (marginal purchasing power & choice), which may well be true, but that “fact” (I have not checked it) is literally being driven by the “textbook” description I gave you and it’s after effects in the macro environment.

I hope that wasn’t too obtuse, but I think it is an important discussion, especially for millions of families who may not be in the position to exercise their free market will.

Utter bullshit, the cost of living rises are exhorbarant, the bank of England are putting the nail in the coffin of millions of people with the rate rise, not just the man on the street but the thousands of business who survive by people spending money...they don't have it so they don't spend, job losses, businesses going bust its an absolute shit show.