It's a question of seeing the glass half full or half empty, I suppose.
I'd love you to be right but unfortunately I don't think you are. Maybe if we can wallop Madrid tomorrow night and be in a position to game manage the second leg... but nah, I can't see that happening.
It's far more likely that those games are going to take a heavy mental and physical toll.
I don't expect Arsenal to drop any more points either. Of course, that could still mean we go into the last game already crowned champions, so you're right in saying we do have more wriggle room than I implied earlier. I can't shake the feeling that we'll be using that life v Everton though. As bad as they are, they always up their game against us.
We're talking serious pressure in the pants time afterwards, should that happen.
Like I said, the next three games will tell a tale. All would change utterly, if we came through them with a greater degree of comfort than I am predicting.
Def dream looks like Everton could get 6 today just before we play them at theirs...very toughCan’t agree with this at all and think it’s quite a poor analysis of the situation.
You say there’s little margin for error but we’ve only got 4 games left and can afford to even lose one of them. We can even draw 2 and still win it. If Arsenal draw just one match then we can even lose 2 of the 4 games. We’re in a absolute dream situation and one that looked impossible just a few weeks back.
Chelsea and Everton are two of the poorest sides in the league on form, and having won 10 league games in a row, we should have nothing to fear even if they’re near the Real Madrid games. We won our games around the Bayern fixtures after all.
If we get through the CL tie and those two games against struggling teams then we’ve got a completely clean run with us even being able to drop points in one of the last two games. Having it go down to the wire also keeps us ready for the final(s) since we’ll be in high gear right up until we need to be.
Like I say, a dream scenario.
Def dream looks like Everton could get 6 today just before we play them at theirs...very tough
I noticed you used simple probability in your calculations, however if you use Bayesian inference, the probability of achieving the treble increases to 66.68%.Hope we go full strength vs Everton. PL is our bread and butter and currently most likely to win, most calculations seem to suggest we have a 90% chance.
I think CL anything can happen and we probably have around a 50% chance of winning it, when you factor in both semi and final.
FA cup probably 75% chance.
Combined, 90% x 50% x 75% = 34%
So for me, a treble is still firmly in the unlikely category and I wouldn't want to risk the PL with rotation etc.
I know however the club will be firmly in the all-out-CL camp, but I won't start dreaming about a treble until we get past Madrid.
We can hope. But..its all about timing. Everton could / should be on a high, Brighton maybe wounded animal by time we play em, who knows but even this scenario makes me think treble is possible but not probableGuess that means Brighton will be the easy game then ;)
It's all about opinions - and yes, mine is the negative viewpoint. I make no apology for that. The treble is a very rare achievement for a reason.Think you’re just being a bit miserable and negative to be honest. Not saying we’ll win the treble but it won’t be for the reasons you think. We’re in better shape and form than we have been all a season. If you’re worrying about Arsenal’s results right now then you’re probably just a bit fragile.
I noticed you used simple probability in your calculations, however if you use Bayesian inference, the probability of achieving the treble increases to 66.68%.
It's all about opinions - and yes, mine is the negative viewpoint. I make no apology for that. The treble is a very rare achievement for a reason.
You're the one who brought Arsenal into the conversation. If you think my disagreeing to your wishful thinking ("if Arsenal drop points...") in some way reflects upon me in a negative way, I respectfully suggest you check your own ego.
There's no need to get hissy and personal because a stranger on the Internet doesn't agree with your flip-flopping opinion - (you've gone from it being a "dream scenario" to "not saying we'll win the treble").
The bottom line is we both want the same result but we disagree about its feasibility. I hope you're right and am wrong. I genuinely do.
Enjoy the rest of your evening.