He will be the next PM so I hope you're right. I've seen nothing to suggest that anything will change though, unfortunately.
I guess in the absence of any clear evidence one way or the other, to some extent we all deploy our own disposition to arrive at the conclusions we seek, and I guess my generally optimistic and hopeful outlook means I am looking to Starmer to be more radical than he is letting on because it’s what the country desperately needs.
My rationale for that (fwiw) is founded on his current ostensible attitude to the EU, contrasted with his previous stance. He has gone from being a staunch Remainer (and thereby stridently pro EU) to being pretty much agnostic on the EU, avoiding talking about it other than to (correctly) say that rejoining isn’t an option, and given the utter disaster that Brexit has been suggests to me that, haunted by the 13 years in opposition and the mistakes the Labour Party has made in alienating the centre ground, and much of its traditional core vote, both of which undoubtedly contributed to that period out of power, he will say anything, or alternatively avoid saying anything, that is going to materially damage his prospects of winning the next GE.
I think he has looked at the ‘honesty’ of the approach under Corbyn and realised how easily it is manipulated by the press in the minds of many of the voters in key marginals who will determine the outcome of the next election. He realises that a Labour Party that is seen to leave the centre ground is unelectable in post-industrial Britain.
This approach will have been reinforced by the fact that the Tories are imploding and mismanaging the country to the extent they are. I think he realises it’s now very much his election to lose and has made a conscious decision to avoid that outcome, even if it means prostituting himself. if you’ve seen the film, then I guess it’s like the part in Rocky 2 just before the fifteenth round where Apollo Creed’s trainer implores with his boxer to stay away from his opponent, because he’s ahead on points and engaging in combat with him in the final round risks denying the victory that is at his fingertips, which Creed of course ignores to his cost. Starmer simply needs to be as anodyne as possible (which I suggest will come naturally) and a healthy majority is his. I’d probably do the same if I was in his shoes tbh.
It’s a truly sad indictment on the state of our nation, and its iniquitous and anachronistic electoral system that he has to embark on this approach, but the power of middle class swing voters in key marginals is overwhelming in assuming the levers of power in this country, and the power of our utter disgrace of a press to influence elections is well-documented. He needs to play the game.
With the (regrettably, personally) reduced state of the Lib Dems, for Starmer not to get a large majority from here would require an act of self harm from the Labour Party and he knows this, which is why he is avoiding saying anything to precipitate that.
I am hopeful (although not overwhelmingly so) that once he has that working majority that he will revert to his political instincts and move materially (although it will be nowhere near enough for some) to the left, as this is what the country desperately needs.
Unfettered capitalism needs bringing robustly to heel, as it has started to materially damage the fabric of this country like never before. As a centrist, I fully recognise that, and my gut feeling tells me Starmer (another centrist) does too.
Time will tell, of course, assuming he doesn’t fuck it up!
