Labour / Tory Party meltdown Referendum fallout

gordondaviesmoustache said:
Those whose votes have migrated from Labour to UKIP were primarily socially right-wing and illiberal, so I don't reckon a socially centrist and liberal political party was ever going to appeal to those voters - and nor would it ever seek to, imo. In terms of voting numbers, it would be that putative new party's most significant achilles heel: its inability to connect with the socially conservative working class, who are significant in number, and who previously (somewhat habitually) voted Labour, but that isn't sufficient reason to embrace the ineffectual and spineless defeatism that your post suggests.
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There might be people whose main concern was the impact of immigration on jobs/driving wages down. Owen Smith, whilst firmly on the left of the party, has also acknowledged there is a "progressive" argument against full freedom of movement.
 
urban genie said:
He's not as unelectable as the polls suggest, in fact the day of thr ref labour were 34-33 ahead of the cons. This 8 point dip is down to the idiots in the coup turning people off.

From day 1 the media including more left of centre ones have bashed him along with his own party, maybe if he had been backed from the start, the soft left ideas he is trying to get across would resonate with a lot, Miliband had similar from the press but not as vitriol.

The PLP are so scared to be sofr left wing after 20 years of being bullied by the right of the party, that they have allowed hard left to get back in. If the centre leftist had backed corbyn from the begining and ignored twats like hunt, and bradshaw, then the party could have repaired itself and maybe jezza would have stepped aside.

All the PLP have to do is look across the chamber and take note, the tories were fueding a week ago, one side won out and they all fall back into line despite their differences, why? because for them power comes before personal beliefs and until labour stop being so stubborn on all branches of the party about whats right they will lose elections.
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Milliband was consistently polling around 42/43% at this stage 5 years ago. Corbyn is around 8-10% down on his predecessor, who lost.
 
geoff clipp said:
There might be people whose main concern was the impact of immigration on jobs/driving wages down. Owen Smith, whilst firmly on the left of the party, has also acknowledged there is a "progressive" argument against full freedom of movement.
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It's currently a pretty narrow constituency you're referring to though, although one that could very well increase in the medium term.
 
urban genie said:
but had the largest inclease in the vite share overall in england, it can be looked at in many ways depending on how you want it to be viewed, the coup lot say his poor showing un the refendum was the catylist yet 63% of labour voters voted remain and the youth vote was up, the 2 requirements they set him pre brexit was met I went to the remain rally he held in manchester, Lucy powel and other mancunian MP's never turned up so to say he didn't do enough is bollocks, every narrative set has been on his detractors terms and he is still here, I have no idea if he could win a GE, but he has from the start been undermined in putting why he should to the country, mainly by his own MP's, they are the one who will lose labour seats more.
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The local election results were generally regarded as disappointing but not disastrous. The projected national share of the Labour vote went up from 29% to 31% but the LibDems did better, going from 12 to 15%. That's nowhere near enough to get them elected in 2020 and an opposition party would normally be expected to increase its share anyway, regardless of who was leader. Plus the evidence seems to be that they've gained share in areas where they're already strong anyway.

In the equivalent election in the same seats in 2012 they gained hundreds of seats, and that was with another generally lacklustre leader against a party where the leader after a general election. This time they lost seats, albeit only a few. The Tories pushed them into third place in Scotland, which shows the difference a sparky leader like Ruth Davidson can make to a party.

While it's nonsense to use the word 'unelectable' for the leader of a major party, to take power Labour will have to make significant gains in Scotland (where it's actually losing ground) and in key marginals in England. And there's no sign of them doing that.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
It's currently a pretty narrow constituency you're referring to though, although one that could very well increase in the medium term.
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I agree. TBH, I can't see past Corbyn winning in any case. I'm pretty conflicted about the whole thing at the moment. My own politics are more to the left of the party and I agree with a lot of what Corbyn stands. It's a good thing that he's engaged a lot of new people but unfortunately I don't feel he's engaged enough of everyone else. I don't think he's a bad guy but I don't think he's a great leader I also think he makes some poor decisions. I'd like to see him replaced but the people I think would stand a decent chance of winning an election don't seem willing to put themselves forward in the current climate. Out of the three on offer I'd probably take Owen Smith but I feel pretty lukewarm about all of them.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
While it's nonsense to use the word 'unelectable' for the leader of a major party, to take power Labour will have to make significant gains in Scotland (where it's actually losing ground) and in key marginals in England. And there's no sign of them doing that.
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If you can't make inroads into marginals then it's anything but nonsense to use the term 'unelectable'. Corbyn has no meaningful appeal in those seats.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
The local election results were generally regarded as disappointing but not disastrous. The projected national share of the Labour vote went up from 29% to 31% but the LibDems did better, going from 12 to 15%. That's nowhere near enough to get them elected in 2020 and an opposition party would normally be expected to increase its share anyway, regardless of who was leader. Plus the evidence seems to be that they've gained share in areas where they're already strong anyway.

In the equivalent election in the same seats in 2012 they gained hundreds of seats, and that was with another generally lacklustre leader against a party where the leader after a general election. This time they lost seats, albeit only a few. The Tories pushed them into third place in Scotland, which shows the difference a sparky leader like Ruth Davidson can make to a party.

While it's nonsense to use the word 'unelectable' for the leader of a major party, to take power Labour will have to make significant gains in Scotland (where it's actually losing ground) and in key marginals in England. And there's no sign of them doing that.
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Scotland is gone and probably for good, as for England my point is that Corbyn doesn't look like he has gained ground in middle england, but under the circumstances of his leaderahip (hostile PLP and press even the left leaning ones) he has faired ok, not great but ok, some people just imagine that if he was aloud to put his case to the country with the full plp support and some less of the media hysteria he may actually supprise some on what can be achieved. I am not saying he will win, but he looks as likely as any of the other numpties in Labour at the momment jockying for power.

I has said all along I would have like 3 years of Corbyn to set out a better vision for Labour(and if honest stiffle the power of thr progress sect of the party) and then the likes of Clive Lewis or possibly Dan Jarvis to lead the party into a GE.
 
No chance of it happening but there has never been a better case for PR. The referendum and its fallout have shown great swathes of the population who were or are are feeling disaffected and disenfranchised.

On the right: 3.8 million UKIP votes at the GE but only one seat.
On the left: a choice between traditional policies under an unelectable leader or another dose of the metropolitan elite.
Minority interest parties such as the Greens? No fcukin chance.

By my reckoning, this leaves a few million people whose votes count for nothing under the first-past-the-post system. Quite a few of them are younger voters. Does anyone think they are suddenly going to go quiet?

Turkeys don't vote for Xmas but I foresee this fractious moment in UK politics becoming more than just a blip. It's a wake-up call for everyone.
 
urban genie said:
Scotland is gone and probably for good, as for England my point is that Corbyn doesn't look like he has gained ground in middle england, but under the circumstances of his leaderahip (hostile PLP and press even the left leaning ones) he has faired ok, not great but ok, some people just imagine that if he was aloud to put his case to the country with the full plp support and some less of the media hysteria he may actually supprise some on what can be achieved. I am not saying he will win, but he looks as likely as any of the other numpties in Labour at the momment jockying for power.

I has said all along I would have like 3 years of Corbyn to set out a better vision for Labour(and if honest stiffle the power of thr progress sect of the party) and then the likes of Clive Lewis or possibly Dan Jarvis to lead the party into a GE.
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That's exactly what I had been hoping for too. I think the likelihood of another GE within a year though has thrown that into chaos and caused the mess we're in now.
 
BoyBlue_1985 said:
More chance of me marrying next doors cat than May calling an Election before brexit is completed
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Yeah I don't believe she has much will to call one herself but the people I have a couple of friends who work within parliament and Labour and their opinion is there's a feeling aorund westminster that something could happen in the next 12 months. Also, it's not that far fetched to believe it would appeal to the tories as they'd most likely get another 5 years and any arguments about May's mandate would be put to bed completely.
 
Dame Anna Neagle not disappointing on the Grief, Weeping, and Victim ticket so far.
 
urban genie said:
Scotland is gone and probably for good, as for England my point is that Corbyn doesn't look like he has gained ground in middle england, but under the circumstances of his leaderahip (hostile PLP and press even the left leaning ones) he has faired ok, not great but ok, some people just imagine that if he was aloud to put his case to the country with the full plp support and some less of the media hysteria he may actually supprise some on what can be achieved. I am not saying he will win, but he looks as likely as any of the other numpties in Labour at the momment jockying for power.

I has said all along I would have like 3 years of Corbyn to set out a better vision for Labour(and if honest stiffle the power of thr progress sect of the party) and then the likes of Clive Lewis or possibly Dan Jarvis to lead the party into a GE.
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If Scotland is gone, there's virtually no possibility of a Labour government. The problem we have now in this country is that Thatcher moved politics so far to the right that Heath's Tory government was probably more left wing than Blair's Labour government. I dont have any problem with someone setting out a genuine alternative to the years of austerity, which have stifled growth and increased inequality. I'd welcome it in fact but the problem appears to be that Corbyn's making a case for that more to the Labour party membership rather than the country.

And what you've suggested is a virtual admission that Corbyn himself isn't a vote winner.
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
If Scotland is gone, there's virtually no possibility of a Labour government. The problem we have now in this country is that Thatcher moved politics so far to the right that Heath's Tory government was probably more left wing than Blair's Labour government. I dont have any problem with someone setting out a genuine alternative to the years of austerity, which have stifled growth and increased inequality. I'd welcome it in fact but the problem appears to be that Corbyn's making a case for that more to the Labour party membership rather than the country.

And what you've suggested is a virtual admission that Corbyn himself isn't a vote winner.
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No one in labour is a vote winner at the minute and that's the fault of the PLP, what I am saying is corbyn could have been a possible vote winner, (and still could be, but I am highly sceptical) but the last 9 months of bullshit from the likes of the guardian and PLP along with wankers like McTernan have pushed the country to the idea that he cannot win an election, though the right wingers on here will scoff the best analogy is with us and empty seats, the rags and rag media have pushed that line for a couple of seasons now to the point that most other fans now use it as a point of fact about our attendances, the same could be said about corbyns unelectability, if the press say it enough times over nearly a year the idea sticks in the public mindset. This I why I believe corbyn still needs to be able to reset the party for a couple of years and if that happens I could see that he would stand aside for someone they cannot do the job have done on him leading up to and election, if Corbyn is still in charge then so be it I wouldn't be worried that much.

Also he has engaged social media and the public a lot more than he is given credit for and not just Labour members, again most of this is ignored so the impression is he isn't giving out any message, look at the daily politics or other political shows, when discussing labour they wheel out tristam hunt, Powel, Jess phillips, Chris lesley etc all opposed to Corbyn and not prepared to put his message forward, why? because it makes good tv. only corbyn aupporter we get is abbot ffs.

Also on Scotland Blair won a GE where if scotland was as it is now it up there wouldn't have mattered, he still would have won, so it is possible though again I find it highly unlikely
 
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