TL;dr is at the bottom.
I’m one of the least knowledgeable people in regards to the finer details of the game on this website so I’m not able to spot the types of deficiencies that you’re able to. I’m a total novice and I couldn’t be happier about that. Didn’t even know the rules until I was 25 (2010/2011). It’s really nice for me to be able to enjoy a sport from an amateur perspective. When you play sports year round from 5-17 it really takes the joy out of it in a way. The joy and curiosity to learn kind of fades away. It’s nice to have a sport that I’m passionate about again.
I do have a background in analytics, played sports at high level and I also had a solid 8 year run in high stakes professional poker so the mindset as far as what to look for in teams / players is there for me. The point I’m making here is that my optimism wasn’t whimsical, it was clear and calculated. I don’t get hyped up and overconfident but when I do I trust it completely (had the same feeling with Jesus btw, 100% confidence which a bold proclamation for me).
Yes, I absolutely would be as excited if the score was 0-0. I’ve been buzzing about the season because I knew something special was coming. Totally confident of it. I promise you that I’m not the optimist you think I am and I’m extremely level headed and a bit cynical actually. I’m just very realistic when it comes to expectation. Play a million hands of poker and you’ll learn all about proper expectation! There’s a post I made to
@Zin 'messiah' Zimmer 6 games prior where I said I’d need with 13/15 points and at least a tie V Chelsea to remain as confident as I was. We ended up being even better than I anticipated after that! This buzz does not expand to CL btw. I’ve had an idea of how this process was going to work out and for me 4th/8th (Coin flip game) is accurate for the progression. Probably a toss up tbh. I’ve never claimed we were world beaters, just that we’d win the league easily and that we were on track and following the process to get to the top. I think going with young phenoms and taking a slower route to the top is better than stacking up the players like Sanchez, Ozil, Mahrez, etc.
Yes, I definitely remember that conversation about chance conversion. You really need that killer finisher to get into the first tier with real/Barca I think. Man...Mbappe would have been perfect for what we’re building. Having said all of that I’m much more relaxed on that now. I would have taken Sanchez but I’m looking for a full on youth movement (my vision might take a bit longer than yours). Some of the reasons why I’m not AS bothered. 1) Natural goal scoring progression with Raz+Sane with age. 2) KDB won’t be as unlucky with the woodwork. 3) The squad knows the system better so things will be faster, easier, and more comfortable. 4) The full team press has been better than I anticipated. Less defense/more offense. Rattled opponents are fresh meat :) 5) Overlapping fullbacks means our wide players are more central and less predictable than last year. What’s that have to do with conversion rate? Well, the chances should comes ‘easier + in better situations’ which will improve the rate. The confidence with dominating will raise the rates as well.
Having said all that I agree with you in that we will be dropping points here and there because of poor finishing but I’m not worried about it costing us the league.
I’m super fucking pissed about Mendy because it forces us to dip into the transfer window in January. I have this idea stuck in my head that January signings are forced and far more likely to be third or fourth choice in the bigger picture.
I don’t think you’re overly critical at all. In fact I’m sure I’d share similar views if I knew as much as you did. You’re wrong about comparing last years team to this years team. Big data is the future. Baseball people figured that out years ago, basketball is doing it also. It’ll start being implemented more and more in football too. The point I’m making here is that they’ve learned how to quantity Wins Above Replacement in baseball which tells you how good a player is. Replacing the 14th player in the league with the ...say 3rd player directly transitions to a massive improvement. Works in other sports, why not here? I did some of my own comparisons and one of the reasons that I was so confident is because we made ridiculous gains in replacement. We went from massive liability to near the top in key positions! There's small margins between the top teams when you do what we did it's almost impossible for it not to transition.
Trust in your boy here. He knows what he’s talking about. I've got a hundred other reasons why I was so confident but this post is long enough. I'm also a little buzzed up after the matches so that optimism comes out a little bit more after the games btw. It's nice being right :P
Tl;dr. Idiotic Ramblings about my background and why I was so confident about this season. Nonsense really with nothing to do with Leroy. :)