We are all guessing here.
Not to dwell on this too long (although better than pages and pages of fish puns), what i have read is that even missing training can be seen as a breach of contract, and as such waive the loyalty bonus.
Now i get that from messi's side, he sees himself as no longer a barca player, and not breaching a contract he is no longer obliged by. And that is the stance i take and support in this too, as that is how i want to intepret the reported clause in his contract.
But from barca's side, they see him as a player who has asked to leave and gone on strike, as such losing his bonus. Which Could well be wrong.
It still makes the claim of the tweet fall flat on its arse, whichever way you look at it, that if barca made him stay they would be another €70m down next year. Which i guess was my point, it is speculation gone rogue.