SebastianBlue
President, International Julian Alvarez Fan Club
- Joined
- 25 Jul 2009
- Messages
- 56,110
This point we completely agree on. In fact, I wrote an entire long form article on this — I’ll post below away from the pay wall for anyone interested.
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What Messi’s Big Move Means for Inter Miami, the MLS, and American Soccer
Having officially joined Major League Soccer (MLS) outfit Inter Miami CF on 15 July to much fanfare and excitement, Lionel Messi watched his new team lose 3–0 away to one of MLS’ new franchises, St. Louis City SC, later that same day.
Inter Miami, also a new MLS franchise, founded and owned by David Beckham, currently sit bottom of both the Eastern Conference and the combined ‘Shield’ league table, collecting just 18 (27%) of 66 available points thus far. The Pink Flamingos have won only 5 of the 22 league games they have played, with 12 more games remaining in the regular season, scoring just 22 goals, and conceding 36 (tied for the second worst goal difference in the MLS).
These are not ideal conditions for a global football phenom, accustomed to being surrounded by some of the best players on the planet, to join a new team in a new league on a new continent. The situation is nothing new, however. Many phenoms like Beckham, Zlatan Ibrahimovic (LA Galaxy), Thierry Henry (RBNY), or Frank Lampard (NYCFC) joined teams struggling to perform in years past. Beckham joined a team that had largely dominated the MLS since it’s founding in 1996, but had been underperforming in the years immediately preceding his arrival. Henry came to Red Bull New York directly after a last place finish in 2009 that saw a new first team manager and sporting director, as well as wholesale changes to playing staff. Frank Lampard was a marquee signing for the then brand new New York City FC franchise in July 2014, only to immediately be sent to their English Premier League parent club Manchester City on a six month “loan”, with it later being revealed he had never actually signed for the MLS outfit, but rather had only made a non-binding “commitment” to eventually join the club. That six month stint turned in to a full year stay, much to the chagrin of NYCFC supporters, who would not see him play for their side until August 2015. The global football cultural force that is Zlatan Ibrahimovic – often referred to as only ‘Zlatan’, especially by the Swede himself – could also make a case that he faced a similar challenge, having joined LA Galaxy in 2018, on the back of them finishing dead last in the league the previous season.
Tangled In The Net
The irony of the situation will not be lost on David Beckham. The legendary footballer and OG influencer’s move to a floundering LA Galaxy in 2007 necessitated the creation of the ‘designated player’ rule – a means for MLS teams to sign a limited number of players on compensation packages well above the league’s strict salary cap (in the case of Beckham at the time, substantially above). That rule, which has evolved and expanded since it’s inception – and the clause in his contract that allowed him to purchase rights to an expansion MLS franchise for a cut-rate price of just $25 million (the going rate for a franchise is currently around $500 million according to Sportico) – enabled Beckham to bring arguably the best footballer in the world to Florida’s eroding shores.
“Floundering”, leaving aside the bad pun, would be a generous description of Inter Miami on the pitch this season. And none of the aforementioned players, including Beckham, joined up with their club half way through what had been a woeful season, with little time to turn things around, but shouldering immense expectations that they will miraculously right the ship before the MLS Cup playoffs. It will be interesting to see if Messi can actually single-handedly drag Inter Miami out of the riptide they’ve drifted in, to drown the metaphor.
I personally have my doubts. He is widely considered to be one of greatest (if not the greatest) players in football history for a reason, but he’s not a magician or an alchemist. Nor is he an apex predator these days; the shark has lost quite a few of his teeth. And his immense playing powers are waning, as is his athleticism and general fitness, at the same time he enters a competition in which the only quality on par with the top European leagues, where he has plied his trade up until now, is the elite physicality of most of its players (as sport science and human conditioning advancements have largely come from the US in recent decades, they filter to sport at all levels earlier than elsewhere in the world).
Times, They Are A Changin’
The one thing American players – often considered generally inferior to European or South American footballers – have never had an issue with when playing in Europe is general fitness and physicality. In fact, up until recently, they were actually often rated more highly in that regard compared to their European counterparts. When it comes to pure athleticism Americans are up there with the best in the world (many, especially Americans, would argue the best). What usually holds them back in the top leagues like Spain’s La Liga, Germany’s Bundesliga, and England’s Premier League is their lack of technical skill and general footballing intelligence compared to their European, South American, and African counterparts. Those attributes come with astute talent selection, comprehensive youth development, and real opportunity to regularly play at a top level. The saying “the strongest steel is forged in the hottest fires” is very much applicable in the world of football; you are not likely to become the best if you are not constantly training with and playing against the best. Nor will you rise to the top if you have inferior coaching or, in the case of the US, a very different player base rooted in a middle-to-upper class controlled ‘pay-to-play’ system.
That general deficiency with US-developed players will very likely dissipate over time, though, as football (soccer) becomes a much more popular (read: lucrative) sport in the US and more American players move abroad earlier in their career. The phrase “follow the money” applies here. As the money continues to flow in, and the path to being able to make a similar salary to other big sports in America is paved (either at home or abroad), more young people will stick with football in their teenage years. The US actually has one of the highest rates and nominal totals of children under 12 playing football in the world in any given year, those young players just tend to leave football for other sports by the time they enter their late teen years, as those other careers are more financially viable. That extended development path will broaden and deepen the talent pool, in turn strengthening competition for playing time and top level recruitment. With that expansion will also come more (and better) coaches and training staff, as there will be more interest (and with it more money) in developing youth talent.
And the US has a massive pool of naturally athletic kids compared to most other nations. According to the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA), over 4 million children between the ages of 6–12 regularly play football in the US. For comparison Argentina, the most recent winner of the World Cup and a country that has produced some of the best footballers in history, including Messi, has approximately 10 million kids under the age of 14, per the United Nations Population Fund; not all of those children play football. Spain (one of my home nations), who won the World Cup in 2010 and the prestigious European Championship three times, whilst developing some of the most coveted youth talent in the world, has just 6 million kids under the age of 14. This is not a maths problem, it is a culture and economic problem. It is only a matter of time before a truly elite American footballer arises, as demographics change, interest in other American sports wane, and the backlash against the ‘pay-to-play’ model of youth football intensifies (or the model is circumvented entirely; looking at you, US Soccer Federation).
All of these developments will continue the positive feedback loop currently happening in America. As financial incentives change, football will continue to grow. It is the basic economic engine currently running through the gears. The US is currently in 3rd gear, but could be in 4th by the end of the decade. Top gear could be reached by the end of the next, depending largely on external cultural, political, and economic factors. In many ways, Messi going to MLS is more for the purpose of increasing exposure and general interest in the MLS – and football more broadly – in the US and beyond, than him actually doing much of note on the football pitch. And I think that is a worthy enough legacy.
Too Fast, Too Spurious
Returning our focus to Messi’s potential impact on Inter Miami’s fortunes, I think the outlined strengths in the American game will make things more difficult for him than he is accustomed to from his previous stints with FC Barcelona (Barça; Spain) and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG; France). I believe he is going to find it challenging to control games as he has in the past. He was already struggling to do that with PSG, his most recent club, who wins one of Europe’s ‘top five’ leagues practically every year. Many fans and French football pundits even attribute their underwhelming domestic (French Ligue 1) and European (UEFA Champions League, the pinnacle of club football) campaigns this season to the “burden of carrying Messi”.
Of course, it may be different if his new team has other great players that he could pass to, like he had at Barça. Or other world class talent that would occupy a defender or two to create space for him to play more freely (à la the likes of Son Heung-Min for Harry Kane, Kevin de Bruyne for Erling Haaland, Pedri for Robert Lewandowski, Vinicius Jr for Karim Benzema, Jamal Musiala for Eric Choupo-Mouting, or Iniesta and Xavi for Messi back in the before times). They don’t have anyone like that at time of writing, but the may soon. And they could change his fortunes. Regardless, Messi will be the main man — he’ll need to control, create, and score.
Another mitigating factor may be the deference players and league administrators may show to Messi. MLS has a long history of making special accommodations for their biggest stars—including the Inter Miami owner himself—and Messi is the biggest of the biggest. The league has invested heavily in bringing him to America and will do everything in their power to maximise the return on that investment. The cynical among us might even say the Leagues Cup—an inaugural competition organised and managed by MLS and nominally Liga MX, featuring every team from each league, being played across the US—could be used as the scenic track for the Messi Hype Train. Only time will tell what sort of favouritism he may receive once the regular MLS season resumes, but I think it is safe to say it is likely he will receive at least some protection from the league. And it seems they are already trying to create a family environ for him to live and work in Miami.
A Cautionary Tale
I understand Beckham and co are trying to sign a number of other legends to join Messi in the 305, but they are all ex-Barça teammates (Busquets, Iniesta, Alba) past their prime, whose athleticism are failing rapidly, as well. It wouldn’t be as much a problem if their entire team was comprised of aging former prime Barça players, as the athleticism and physicality of opposition teams wouldn’t mean much given they would rarely be able to get the ball off Inter Miami. You cannot score if you do not have the ball. But Beckham (and the MLS) can’t make that happen, so at best it will be 4 former greats, legs going, not necessarily completely committed to the cause, amongst otherwise the worst team in the MLS (by nearly every measure, not just points).
In many ways it harkens back to Queens Park Rangers (QPR) from 2011–2013, then playing in the Premier League, who employed a very high risk player acquisition strategy: bring in a large number of aging but relatively cheap, formerly well-regarded players, on fat contracts, and hope that pure class could overcome declining fitness and physicality, in a league adopting stronger training regimes and attracting increasingly younger, higher quality talent from around the world. Unfortunately for QPR, that strategy failed spectacularly. They narrowly avoided relegation to the second division of English football (EFL Championship) on the final day of the 2011–2012 season, despite losing 3–2 to Manchester City in what many considered the greatest last day in Premier League history, due to their relegation rivals losing elsewhere on the day. Manchester City scored two goals in stoppage time, with a 25 year-old Argentinian by the name of Sergio Aguero (a very close friend of Messi; in fact, Messi is godfather to Aguero’s son Benjamin) dramatically scoring the winner in the last minute of the game to give Manchester City the Premier League title over their archrivals Manchester United that season.
That scare was not enough to dissuade QPR from their questionable transfer strategy — they brought in even more veterans past their prime for the following season, this time on even higher wages, sacked their manager (Neil Warnock), then sacked the new one (Mark Hughes) just 12 games in to the new season, after they won only 1 game in that run. They went on to win only 3 more games the rest of the campaign, drawing 13 and losing 21, finishing bottom of the Premier League table with the joint-worst goal difference in the division, and were knocked out in early rounds of both English domestic cup competitions. QPR were relegated to the Championship, now saddled with an enormous wage bill and players they could not sell (for profit or charity). They did manage to gain promotion back up to the Premier League in 2013–2014, only to be relegated back down to the Championship the following season. They are now a second division side, struggling to avoid relegation down to the third division of English football (confusingly named EFL League One), having finished 20th of 24 teams in the 2022–2023 season.
I am not sure, even with an (aging) greatest player in the world, it will end that differently for Inter Miami. Well, aside from one generous mercy for them (and Beckham): the MLS does not have promotion/relegation. When you consider Messi is 36, and so likely has only one or two years left of being able to play professionally, and that the quality of the MLS as only improved over the last decade, it is difficult to see him being dominant in this Inter Miami team. I believe that holds true even if Beckham and co manage to attract the likes of Busquets, Iniesta, and Alba to play with their old teammate. It is true that Messi will likely get special protection from the league, both from mandated deferential officiating and from rival players being frightened of inadvertently injuring him, with the insane backlash that comes with doing so front of their minds. But I am not sure that will be enough for him to have the sort of impact Beckham and co will need this season, given the starting position.
One wonders, from a sporting and reputation perspective, if it would have been better for Messi to retire this summer, rather than go to the MLS (or the Saudi Pro League, which was the separate megabucks offer he received, as they look to prize away the best talent from Europe for their new sporting project after LIV Golf was a seeming success). That said, I don’t think Don Garber, the commissioner of the MLS (and likely one of the main drivers and supporters of bringing Messi to Inter Miami), will be one those wondering. He will be absolutely overjoyed they were able to get the deal over the line, as Messi represents a truly unique opportunity to catapult the leagues brand, putting it front and center in markets that were previously uninterested in or completely unaware of the existence of the MLS. Beckham was a massive boost to exposure when he came, as the former Manchester United and Real Madrid man was arguably the most recognisable sporting personality on the planet. Thierry Henry brought more legitimacy than notoriety, despite being the much better player. Zlatan Ibrahimovic made a famously instant impact, bringing renewed interest from Europe and undoubtedly put butts in seats everywhere LA Galaxy went.
But Lionel Messi is on a level all to himself. He is considered by many to be (rightly or wrongly) – by some distance – the best player in the history of the game. The term “phenom” is used unsparingly these days, perhaps even by this writer. But it more than applies to Messi, ever since (and perhaps before) his debut for Barça in October 2004, at just 17 years and 3 months old. He immediately became a bona fide phenomenon. And, until recently, his levels never dropped. He continually shocked, amazed, and delighted everyone that watched him play (save Real Madrid supporters, of course). Messi is not just a footballer — to many, he is football. For footy fans around the world, he represents everything they love about the sport, everything that is good about sport itself. His at-once precise, graceful, and bombastic style brought many young people to football over the past two decades. His every move and utterance, on and off the pitch, have been eagerly followed (and scrutinised). He transcends football – some would argue even sport – to a level of global celebrity rarely reached in human history. Messi himself will be very happy with the money, adoration, and extended career offered in America; he likely won’t be troubled by any of my concerns about possible degradation of reputation.
Conclusion
Messi is in rarified air. And he’s sharing his jewel-encrusted, ultra-limited edition, ten times purified tank to Miami, the US, and – most importantly – the MLS so they can get close, take a few whiffs, and feel the contact high. Don Garber will rival David Beckham for the happiest man in the Northern Hemisphere right now. This was a coup for his league, long fourth or fifth fiddle to American football, basketball, baseball, and hockey. In the 24 hours after Messi’s signing was announced, Inter Miami went from 1 million followers on Instagram to over 5 million; they currently have 9.5 million followers. The transfer was announced a little under two days ago at time of writing. For comparison, the most followed American sports team on Instagram, the Golden State Warriors (NBA) has 31 million followers. Messi represents nearly instant expansion of exposure to fanbases around the world. Apple, which recently aggressively acquired live and replay streaming rights for MLS matches for the Apple TV+ platform, will be hoping he plays in to his 40s.
Ultimately, I think Messi will do far more for Inter Miami, the MLS, and American ‘soccer’ off the pitch than on it. He will help grow the sport within the US and the league brand, likely far more than any marketing campaign MLS have mustered in their relatively brief existence.
And Don Garber will be smiling all the way to the bank, regardless of what happens with Inter Miami over the next few seasons.
