Liverpool Thread 2014/15

[Rösler von Stretfordbömber]

Yes, PB and that earlier poster are bang-on as to the FSG and their "Moneyball" approach.

The idea behind that approach is not bad. Actually worked very well in Baseball and was adopted by more or less every club. As far as player acquisition, you use analytics to find inefficiencies in the market and capitalise on them. Unfortunately for the dipper cult, Baseball and Football are apples and oranges as far as this sort of thing goes. In Baseball you have 162 games each season of more or less one on one matchups between players. So then a large and statistically-significant base for unearthing gems via the calculator.

There is just no real comparable way to measure the performance of a footballer. And also there are far fewer data points from which to draw conclusions.

The real Moneyball in football is played by the Portugese clubs. And I don't mean that as a knock on Txiki at all. They just find young players and sell them a few years later for enormous sums. Wouldn't fit with the dipper delusions of grandeur to do that, of course. So you have some numpty with an MIT degree sitting in an office in Boston, poring over Andy Carroll's "successful receptions of passes in the opposing end" number and getting the chequebook out behind him having a decent showing over 50 instances in one season or some such.

I may be remembering this incorrectly, but I do believe they justified the Carroll purchase exactly this way. Some stat they had come up with and the next thing you know it was 35 mil for that greasy-haired piece of plywood.

 

[superseiyan]

A thing that kept popping up was "now he'll be nothing more than another SWP/Pennant/Rodwell".

I don't get this line of reasoning. He's either good or he isn't. Cream rises to the top. Just because he wouldn't knock Silva out of the starting lineup doesn't mean that he can't contribute.

The reverse is equally disingenuous--rival fans calling him an SWP while also being excited at the prospect of signing him for a big fee.

Anyway, scathing words from LFC friendly Tony Barrett in the Times:

Tony Barrett: Vulnerable Liverpool are mediocre - and they know it

Not since buying Liverpool in October 2010 has Fenway Sports Group (FSG) endured such a chastening 72 hours. On Saturday, supporters at Anfield reacted with derision to the suggestion that the club are heading in the right direction. Then yesterday there was a vicious double whammy as Michel Platini confirmed that the Financial Fair Play rules which attracted John W. Henry to purchase the club are to be relaxed and Raheem Sterling’s camp made it known that the winger wishes to leave.

Liverpool are vulnerable right now. They are mediocre and everyone knows it. The reality is that those at the top end of the football industry have known it for some time, hence senior scouts from Manchester City and Chelsea becoming Anfield regulars this season in the knowledge that Liverpool’s best players are there for the taking in a way that they haven’t been for half a century.

For all the opprobrium – some of it just, some of it not – that will inevitably be showered on Sterling and his representative, Aidy Ward, following yesterday’s events, the reality is that it is Liverpool’s weakness that allows players and agents to act in the way that they are. One of the club’s first and most important responsibilities is to make it a place that players find difficult to leave and it would be absurd to claim that is the case.
With no Champions League football to offer, only one trophy (the League Cup) won in the past nine seasons, just three title challenges since 1991, a transfer policy that prioritises the future over the present and an inability to compete for top players, Liverpool are failing to keep their end of the bargain in terms of how a big club are supposed to behave. Expectations have been lowered, almost dumbed down, and if the supporters can recognise that so too can the players.

Thus far, the strongest argument that Liverpool have been able to muster in their attempts to convince Sterling to remain at the club is that it is the best place for his development at this stage of his career; not that if he remains at Anfield he can fulfil his ambitions, that success is around the corner or that they will pay him as much as others are willing to. It is an argument rooted in weakness and lacking in conviction. It could also be argued that it is flawed given that Sterling, a creative player, has spent the past 12 months playing in a team without a forward. It is all well and good playing regular first-team football but doing so in a dysfunctional team that stymies your best qualities is hardly developmental.

The reality is that Liverpool’s problems – their failure to finish in the top four, their struggle to hold on to their best players, the lack of supporters’ faith in the club’s direction and the pressure that is building on the Anfield hierarchy – are symptoms of the same cause: a flawed transfer strategy that it is causing untold damage. Signing potential rather than proven talent is undermining everything that Liverpool are supposed to stand for. It has reached the stage where one of their better young players is not prepared to hang around to see if their inferior young players will improve.
For all the accusations that Sterling is going the wrong way about forcing a move (and many of these are wholly legitimate), Liverpool are at the mercy of the ambition of others because they are either unwilling or unable to match their rivals’ ambition. That situation is only likely to become more severe now that FFP is about to be watered down. As Henry himself conceded recently, without FFP it becomes “very difficult” for Liverpool to compete. The established football food chain, ordered according to owners’ wealth, leaves them exposed. Rival clubs, avaricious agents and even their own supporters know this only too well.

FSG’s model is failing. Whether that is because it is fundamentally flawed or poorly executed is a moot point but what is not in question is that Liverpool’s entire football operation is in need of urgent evaluation. Until the things that are going wrong are put right, then Raheem Sterling won’t be the last to believe the grass is greener elsewhere, he’ll just be one of a number in an ever lengthening line who view Liverpool Football Club as a stepping stone rather than a final destination.

 

[sir baconface]

Hmm, Sterling.

Well you accepted Tevez back, and the Rags accepted Rooney back TWICE.

He has 2 years on contract. We don't HAVE TO sell. It'd be very weak of the club to sell him. *especially* to an EPL team.

Of course you don't, mate.

But you will.

 

[squirtyflower]

Barrett has very much hit the nail on the head hasn't he?

 

[Damocles]

Yes, PB and that earlier poster are bang-on as to the FSG and their "Moneyball" approach.

The idea behind that approach is not bad. Actually worked very well in Baseball and was adopted by more or less every club. As far as player acquisition, you use analytics to find inefficiencies in the market and capitalise on them. Unfortunately for the dipper cult, Baseball and Football are apples and oranges as far as this sort of thing goes. In Baseball you have 162 games each season of more or less one on one matchups between players. So then a large and statistically-significant base for unearthing gems via the calculator.

There is just no real comparable way to measure the performance of a footballer. And also there are far fewer data points from which to draw conclusions.

The real Moneyball in football is played by the Portugese clubs. And I don't mean that as a knock on Txiki at all. They just find young players and sell them a few years later for enormous sums. Wouldn't fit with the dipper delusions of grandeur to do that, of course. So you have some numpty with an MIT degree sitting in an office in Boston, poring over Andy Carroll's "successful receptions of passes in the opposing end" number and getting the chequebook out behind him having a decent showing over 50 instances in one season or some such.

I may be remembering this incorrectly, but I do believe they justified the Carroll purchase exactly this way. Some stat they had come up with and the next thing you know it was 35 mil for that greasy-haired piece of plywood.

Excellent post, spot on on all points

 

[Newman Noggs]

Post-FFP, I should have thought they'll be a decent investment opportunity. It may be the saving of them because they're only going one way at the moment. Wouldn't surprise me if they've joined the Milan clubs in lobbying to have the rules relaxed.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

As a Spurs fan pointed out on the radio this morning, the time to question his loyalty was when he left QPR for£600k to join Liverpool.

Exactly. The kid whom they made the highest paid teenager in English football, now wants to be the highest paid 20year old in English football - and they are in shock?

spot on.

And big brenda can shut his big hypocritical mouth too: when loserpool came for him at swansea offering a pay rise and a bigger club to match his ego, i didn,t see brenda say no, i am happy at swansea and i dont want a pay rise.

the hypocrisy shown by managers in particular in transfer negotiations makes me sick.Look at Moyes- takes the club captain and player of the year Lescott from Wolves...a step up and a pay rise..then has a real go when City come calling, drip feeding the media with tales of the players disloyalty and making out City are some force for evil....

Then when utd come calling for wee david, he drops everton like a stone , for a step up and a pay rise..just like Lescott did.

Why folk have it in for Sterling i do not know- why should he be " loyal" to a club who took him from qpr reserves...if l;iverpool over stretch themselves on this new stand being built with no chumps league football..they would be looking around for players to to sell to raise funds....sterling , would be out weather he liked it or not....think City and Swp a few years ago..

And for any lurking liverpool fans, dont think your time at the top is guaranteed...look at leeds utd, look at sheff wed with their 50,000 capacity ground and their spectacular fall from grace..it can happen..it could well be said that liverpools fall from 2nd position to a probable 5th/6th is already a spectacular fall from grace, only the deluded would not see the alarming signs of a team in free-fall...Sterling has every right to think of himself..his current manager and many many others before him have done exactly the same , but appear to have very short memories.

hypocritical bastards.

It's also a bit rich to refuse to give a payrise to a player that reflects his status in your squad, and then try and claim that he's worth £50m when another club wants to buy him. If they claim he's worth £50m, then they should be offering no less than about £200k a week.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Henry hates this news precisely because FSG has no intention of investing in Liverpool.

It surely must have dawned on him by now that the Irish gnome isn't going to take them anywhere and all he can see is the gap widening further. All he's interested in is making a profit and that could be threatened if other owners are allowed to invest and they have to follow suit.

 

[stony]

Henry hates this news precisely because FSG has no intention of investing in Liverpool.

It surely must have dawned on him by now that the Irish gnome isn't going to take them anywhere and all he can see is the gap widening further. All he's interested in is making a profit and that could be threatened if other owners are allowed to invest and they have to follow suit.

I genuinely hope they go bankrupt. They got away with it last time when the RBS, Broughton, Purslow and Ayre stitched up Hicks and Gillette. I'd love to know the details of the out of court settlement.

 

[VOOMER]

Yes, PB and that earlier poster are bang-on as to the FSG and their "Moneyball" approach.

The idea behind that approach is not bad. Actually worked very well in Baseball and was adopted by more or less every club. As far as player acquisition, you use analytics to find inefficiencies in the market and capitalise on them. Unfortunately for the dipper cult, Baseball and Football are apples and oranges as far as this sort of thing goes. In Baseball you have 162 games each season of more or less one on one matchups between players. So then a large and statistically-significant base for unearthing gems via the calculator.

There is just no real comparable way to measure the performance of a footballer. And also there are far fewer data points from which to draw conclusions.

The real Moneyball in football is played by the Portugese clubs. And I don't mean that as a knock on Txiki at all. They just find young players and sell them a few years later for enormous sums. Wouldn't fit with the dipper delusions of grandeur to do that, of course. So you have some numpty with an MIT degree sitting in an office in Boston, poring over Andy Carroll's "successful receptions of passes in the opposing end" number and getting the chequebook out behind him having a decent showing over 50 instances in one season or some such.

I may be remembering this incorrectly, but I do believe they justified the Carroll purchase exactly this way. Some stat they had come up with and the next thing you know it was 35 mil for that greasy-haired piece of plywood.

Exactly, its a scouting system for lazy, lazy tight fisted owners. As you rightly point out, there are so few variables in most baseball positions, that it was never going to work in a game which requires so many attributes to play at the top level. Henry seriously thought it would work and was already counting the money, now he also having to watch it.