Had a few requests to try and do a pre and post match analysis of league games, and with it being christmas and me not wanting to do the work I perhaps should be doing here's my take on the Liverpool game.
Liverpool's preferred recent setup has been 4-3-3, with a front 3 of Suarez, Coutinho and Sterling backed up with a 3 of Henderson, Allen and Lucas. This has been the preferred shape since the injuries to Gerrard and Sturridge. At Hull they lined up more 4-2-3-1 with Henderson more advanced and Gerrard holding. At Everton they played 4-3-3 but with Henderson as part of the front 3, whilst at Arsenal they played 3-4-1-2 and got soundly beaten. Without Gerrard and Sturridge I can see them sticking with 4-3-3. With the injury to Enrique I don't see them going to 3 at the back as that usually requires 2 advanced fullbacks and he hasn't favoured Cissokho which means Flanagan would have to play a wing back role. Nonetheless I will try and uncover the pro's and cons of both systems and work out how City can get at the Dippers.
The 4-3-3 has been successful at Spurs and Cardiff, and it seems Rodgers has stumbled onto it due to injuries. Spurs lined up 4-2-3-1 against them, but didn't really have the players to pressa Liverpool hard and thus Liverpool took control of possession in that game. Sandro went off early which was a blow but Spurs pass completion for the first half was just 76%, Liverpool will press hard and then look to keep it, however they do this on an inconsistent basis, with their pass percentage rating at Spurs going from 83% to 68% in the first half, averaging out at 77%. Liverpool's pass completion rate did not jump back up until Paulinho's read, where it surged up to 94%, showing that the red card in effect killed the game. Liverpool kept the ball much better at Hull, and had 55% possession, however they lost out in aerial duels, tackles and in percentage of successful attempts at taking players on. Liverpool do like to cross the ball into the box, they don't often find a team mate but they whip it in about 15-20 times a game. They also link to run at opponents, which is unsurprising when they have the likes of Suarez, Coutinho who are skillful players.
A telling point about Liverpool's play is that they like to play from the back, in a not too dissimilar fashion to us. The percentage of their possession in the central area of their defensive third can range from 12% up to 20%, and over a period of 4 away games(Hull, Spurs, Everton & Arsenal) & the home game v Cardiff, it seems the worse the result for them the more ball they have in that area, it's up at 20% for the games at Everton, Hull and Arsenal whereas Cardiff it was just 12%. This shows that you need to stop them getting the ball out of defence. Like most teams their possession tends to go through the centre of the park, however they tend to use the flanks slightly less than us in advanced areas, those that does vary game to game. They tend to have a similar amount of possession in their central third of the pitch as they do in the central area of their defensive third, and again, in games where they struggle this is higher, as against Cardiff their highest central area for possession was their attacking third, but in the other games it was their midfield or defensive third, this includes Spurs, which suggests that in that game Spurs tried to hem them in but when Liverpool broke through they were deadly. This is reflected in the fact that of their 21 attempts, 10 were on target and of those 10, 5 went in. It was a similar story v Everton, they had just 11 attempts on goal, 5 were on target and 3 went in, so their goals to shots on target is pretty clinical. We need to restrict them to shots from outside the area as they were very profligate against Cardiff, blasting 20 off target or blocked, many from outside the area. In summary to stand much chance we have to keep Suarez out of the box.
To see why their possession stats are the way they are you have to look at how their players move. Johnson at RB sticks to his flank and runs back and forth up to the attacking third, but rarely up to the penalty area. The only games he really got that far forward were Cardiff at home and Everton, perhaps suggesting he has more license at home, at Everton he had Henderson in front of him who did track back, compared to Sterling who is less keen to do that. If they play the lineup they did on Saturday then I don't see Johnson venturing too far forward because he might not get cover, Sterling however compensates because he will run down the right and look to get into the box and play in Suarez, which is partly why Liverpool have been so effective in recent weeks as they've had another outlet at getting Suarez the ball in the box, however the front 3 of Liverpool do drift, come inside and swap a bit as well so it's the movement between the 3 and it highlights why their play becomes so central the further they go up the pitch.
On the opposite side Coutinho likes to roam and he needs to be picked up and stopped playing, he likes to drift across the pitch and deeper. With Flanagan behind him he has a similar fullback setup to Johnson on the opposite flank, and like Sterling likes to drift and interchange and move around that final third into central areas. Their midfield 3 relies on discipline, against Cardiff and Spurs their midfield stuck to areas of the pitch they were obviously designated and it paid off for them, against Hull these areas were less defined and they suffered a defeat, so I think discipline and work rate will be their modus operandi. Lucas in particular will just look to sweep up, deny us space and stop Silva and Nasri playing, so here's what I think we need to do to get the upper hand.
Going on the basis that Liverpool will stick with a working and winning formula of 4-3-3 we have to acknowledge that their front 3 will look to go more from out to in and come in centrally. We need to work the high line well to stop Suarez getting ball in and around the penalty area. They don't look to overlap often but it's a possibility with Johnson in particular. Their midfield will look to be disciplined and I think they'll look to try and poach a 1 goal win, they'll battle hard.
Their key weaknesses are in their defensive capabilities, Skrtel is error prone, Flanagan inexperienced and Johnson attack minded. I would play a 4-2-3-1 with Navas, and if Zabaleta is not fit, Milner at RB. The reasoning being that Navas can have a go at Flanagan and push Liverpool back, creating a bit more space in the final 3rd centrally, Milner can overlap and box to box, but also track inside with Coutinho and Navas can cover RB, which means that we can turn into a brief 3 man midfield in defense. The discipline of the Liverpool 3 will just have be overcome by our best players playing well so Silva, Nasri and Yaya will need to start, and with Skrtel and Johnson's frailties Negredo should play because of his power, strength and because he's left footed he can go down that channel more comfortably. I would think up against Sterling that Clichy may be the better option at LB because of his pace against Sterling, I think Kolarov could become exposed.
So after all that I'd go with:
--------------------------------Hart------------------------
Milner-----Kompany(c)---Demichelis----Clichy
---------------------Yaya------------Fern------------------
Navas------------------Nasri------------Silva---------
----------------------------Negredo----------------------------
Have to win the midfield and get at their defense round the back of Flanagan and between Skrtel and Johnson if they play. We have to push Liverpool high and be really well drilled in our line to stop their front 3 getting through, as they will battle and run hard and Henderson will look to dart in a box to box role. The plus point is they don't have a lot of creativity from deep, so if we can stifle them high up the pitch it will force Coutinho deeper and help limit them, however we all know Suarez is just a moment away from scoring.
I think it'll be a tough game because they'll be disciplined and work really hard, I think we should win maybe 3-1, it would take us really being on top form and right setup to thrash them and if we're not on it then Suarez will punish us.
