Tolmie's opinion is more likely to be closer to the empirical fact since he is more informed than the rest of us here (on transfers). Therefore, we have opinions, but his is more of an educated guess (on transfers). Can we agree on that? Nothing is a "fact" because this isn't an academic study where one needs to provide empirical evidence etc. Everything is possible in that sense, but I am yet to see anything indicating we are in for Caicedo. There is a (small) chance we are in for Caicedo, though. I give you that. I just think it's less than 1%. I don't have any references/bibliography to back any of this up ;).