Prestwich_Blue
Well-Known Member
You could argue that it's 1 over 2 to the power of 11, so a very small percentage, but that ignores the fact that each draw is completely separate from the previous one.The odds stretch way beyond 50-50 when you take in the rags' domestic cup home draw accumulator of 11 consecutive home draws in the domestic cups. (Not counting last season's two legged League Cup semi final when they had the advantage of playing the away leg first). The last time they were drawn away was against Leicester in the FA Cup 6th round in March 2021. Maybe someone with a better grasp of statistics than me can work out what the odds of being drawn at home 11 consecutive times are.
Over an infinitesimal period then you'd theoretically expect a 50/50 split between home and away draws but over a short period then one home draw, or a run of them, doesn't really influence the odds on the next one being a home draw.