west didsblue
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 2 Oct 2011
- Messages
- 31,935
I was going to set some historical context but PB has already done a better job than I could so I’ll just comment on what I think of the current situation and what should but probably won’t happen.
I think both sides are stuck with weak unimaginative leadership. Israel is in a position of strength and is probably stronger than it’s ever been and I believe it could, if the government had the will, take the initiative and make some concessions to restart the peace process. Unfortunately Netanyahu is happy to maintain the status quo because the Palestinians are probably in a weaker position than for a long time as a lot of their allies have turned their backs on them because of their support for a particular side in the Syria conflict. I believe that this is a short sighted view by Netanyahu because although he may be getting away with it for now, in the long term I am convinced that Israel will be worse off. The land swap suggestion where Israel hands over some land in exchange for the land containing the largest settlements close to the green line has been suggested before and failed because the Israeli Arabs living in that area (known as the triangle) overwhelmingly rejected being transferred to a future Palestinian state. That’s not to say it shouldn’t be tried again. The best two opportunities for a long term solution was when Rabin was in power and again ten years later when Sharon was PM. Both were strong leaders that had the ability to make concessions that would be grudgingly accepted by the extremists. Netanyahu’s core support is those extremists so he won’t even consider it.
I strongly believe that a two state solution is the only thing that could work in the long term. There are too many people on the extremes on both sides to make a one state solution viable.
Trump certainly doesn’t help. By unilaterally moving the embassy and offering unconditional support to Netanyahu makes it even less likely that concessions will be made. Netanyahu has worked out, like many world leaders, that a bit of flattery gets you what you want with Trump.
The Palestinians don’t help themselves either. Following the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Hamas has done everything it can to keep the conflict going. If it had made more of an effort to make Gaza a decent place to live rather than expending its efforts in digging tunnels and firing rockets, there wouldn’t be the justification for Israel and Egypt to maintain the blockade. Contrary to the widespread view that Gaza is an overcrowded open air prison, the population density of Gaza City doesn’t even make it into the world top 50 and it is less densely populated than say Paris or Inner London.
So to sum up, for a long term just solution, Israel needs to make the first move and both sides need to make concessions. The best opportunity was rejected by the Palestinian side in 1999 when Barak was PM. If Israel were prepared to offer something like that deal again that may now be acceptable to the Palestinians due to their position being weaker than it was then. That offer won’t happen while Netanyahu is PM.