Newcastle United (A) - Sat 13th Jan, 17:30 | PL | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction


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Another game, another hopefully entertaining occasion, another hopeful triumph for the sky blues. We're on with another Premier league game during Saturday away to Newcastle. Seeing at least 3-0 to the good in this encounter. What's more another significant step towards our 10th ever league title awaits. C'mon now City!!
 
I was looking at some referee stats for various PL referee's, over all their matches in charge of leading PL clubs, over all seasons, with significant differences between officials.

At City Pep has an average win % of 72%.

However for Chris Kavanagh, (the Newcastle ref this weekend), we have a win percentage of only 56%, (9 matches), Liverpool have a remarkable 81%, (16 matches), Chelsea also have a very high 75%, (12 matches), Spurs have 69%, (13 matches), Utd, 54% (12 matches) and Arsenal, 50%, (18 matches).
Considering our considerable success over many seasons this win % seems remarkably low!


With Michael Oliver, (a referee that I thought doesn't particularly seem to like us?), We have figures more like you would expect: City 77%, (44 matches), Liverpool 47%, (53 matches), Chelsea 48%, (42 matches), Utd 41%, (41 matches), Spurs 56%, (41 matches) and Arsenal 56%, (43 matches).


With Anthony Taylor, a referee City fans pretty universally regard as hating us and favouring Utd, City have a similar, very low, win % stats to Kavanagh 55%, (33 matches), whereas not surprisingly Utd have the highest win % of the top clubs 58%, (40 matches), Liverpool 56%, (33 matches), Chelsea, 46%, (37 matches), Spurs 56%, (41 matches) and Arsenal 56%, (43 matches).


I had known about Anthony Taylor's obvious bias, Pep clearly knows it, and Taylor finds it hard not to smile when he gives decisions against us, like sending off Rodri!

However Kavanagh's stats, seem potentially concerning and as distorted as Taylor?!

Ref stats are inherently very biased, certain refs take charge of certain levels of game, therefore you can have really high or mediocre % win rates because your opposition is always of a banded standard (e.g. we have a 100% win rate with Lee Mason, cos he refs dross). Add to that the ref isn't always in charge of game changing decisions these days - VAR is stepping in (those combinations should be taken into account) - plus not all refs have reffed us while we've got better and better under various managers, then you've got a recipe for a pretty meaningless stat unless you can get right into the details.

While Kavanagh has reffed us 9 times ever (all with Pep in charge), he has reffed us 8 times in the league, and we've never lost - 5 wins and 3 draws. The draws were L'pool at home (this season), United away (about 3 years ago) and Newcastle away (!) (about 4 years ago), quite tough games.

You could begin to make a case that we should have beaten Liverpool, that's a VAR issue noted above, but at Newcastle away in 2019 we were sloppy and lethargic. The fact he did the Newcastle defeat in the League Cup away earlier this season is interesting!! - again you could argue we crumbled in the 2nd half in that one too.

if we play properly and with the control we're finding again, the ref should be immaterial. It's the counters we allow, with a finisher like Isak, that we really need to keep an eye on.
 
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I personally think Erling was being saved for this game to be honest. There was no need for him to play against Huddersfield and that extra week and training sessions etc should have him starting on Saturday
A fit and firing Erling, fingers crossed.
 
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