Honestly, I believe City will win. I think Newcastle offensive system still is subpar, but their defensive game is really good. So I think they will eventually concede against us and will not have the offensive power to try a better result.
My biggest worry is about Haaland goalscoring. He needs goals to feel more relaxed and adapted. He also said a big reason why he came to City was how many touches/opportunities the system creates. He almost didn't touch the ball last match.
So I hope he can score against Newcastle. The sooner he is relaxed and confident in the system, the better.