It would leave them on 11 points at the halfway stage of the season so would be near certain to go down.
Or if you looked at it sensibly, 6 points from Howe's first 8 games including 5 of the hardest teams in the league.
He needs about 30 points from the remaining 27 games. They'll stay up based on games vs. Norwich, Watford, Southampton, Brentford, not City, Liverpool and United.