Interesting take. I am the opposite. Going into CAS I was very apprehensive because I had the feeling that there was a groundswell of opinion that regardless of the rights and wrongs of what we'd done, we needed to be banned simply because of the Football Leaks revelations. Everything was 'fresh' in that moment and the time lapse between UEFA's announcement and the CAS case was months.
Things are hugely different this time round and the major difference is time. We're looking at a process that is going to take upwards of 18 months, so by the time we're at something approaching a decision from the panel, we'll be well into 2025 if not 2026. Glazers will be gone. FSG will be gone. The landscape in the league will be totally different. The power dynamics also totally different.
You also have to look at the charges themselves. Whilst UEFA pointedly accused City of inflating sponsorships, which in many respects COULD have been argued just with the Football Leaks documents, PL charges are of false accounting. FL even on their face, can only 'prove' things from the relevant years of the leaked documents. The PL is relying on a discovery process where City will hand over documents which I presume they think will make us more guilty. That's naive beyond some belief. The PL have to prove false accounting all by themselves. The discovery process won't help them IMO.
I've seen the commentary around a potential whistleblower, and it feels remarkably far fetched to me. A whistleblower, at best can testify to what they saw, or were asked to do. But that is one person. On the other side City will be able to wheel out dozens of people, and dozens of documents and filings which attest to the veracity of their accounts. It is an enormous ask of any 'independent panel' to start accusing high ranking board members and executives all of lying based on the word of what would surely be a disgruntled employee. But in any case, I think it is unlikely that a whistleblower even exists, because if they'd had one, this wouldn't have taken 4 years to get here, and it would be all over the media that the league had a whistleblower.
Finally, there is the actual reasoning for why we've been charged now and in the manner that we have. My personal opinion is that the charges are the punishment. The idea here is simply to inflict maximum reputational damage onto the club. I reckon after 4 years they've realised "we'll never be able to prove this case, but if we bin it we'll forever be panned for not trying" so they've gone with the big long charge sheet knowing that it is now the panel's job to find us innocent but the smears will stick in the meantime.
The politicking at play is on another level to anything we've seen since Abu Dhabi came in.