Like most of us that sit glued to Bluemoon all day when we should be working, I feel incredibly well informed when discussing the charges with friends who support the red tops due to the outstanding posts we get on here from our learned legal and financial experts. To be fair to them, my friends are all decent intelligent people, but even they haven't got the first clue about any of this beyond the stupid propoganda. We worry about people listening to the likes of Delaney, Harris etc but the reality with my friends is that they do not even know who these "journalists" are. They are far more likely to trust the BBC and just as worryingly Talksport.
What I find most interesting is that nobody I speak to has ever thought about this from a business perspective and it is in that area that I feel most confident, notwithstanding the brilliant accounting and legal analysis we get on here. The thing is, almost everybody fails to understand just who Khaldoun and Mansour are. The red tops would have us believe that they are a couple of arab charlatans out to dress up their reputation and regime, a couple of mucky operators that need to be removed. But nothing could be further from the truth. Khaldoun regularly talked about "creating value" in his Chairman interviews and just on a simple level that is what they do. The Mubadala fund that he runs currently has over $300Bn under management across many technology sectors and has been heavily invested in the UK for a long time. The concept is not taking fistfuls of cash and chucking it at the wall in the hope that something sticks with a "who cares there's plenty more where that came from" attitude as the red top fans would have us believe. It's about investing in quality to build value and that is something that they are very very good at. Mubadala is invested all over the world in major technology, life sciences etc businesses, the vast majority of which have no roots in the middle east at all. Their link is the desire to work with world class investors to bring real value to help build companies that can compete at the top level.
I recently challenged a few of my friends with the City investment. Including purchase price and net investment into City, at a rough estimate the owners have spent circa £1Bn or at least something of that magnitude. They divested a bunch of stock to SilverLake, who are no mugs (media never mention them) which in the process reduced the capital tied up. That deal valued City at c$5Bn, so the good Sheikh's supposed sportswashing exercise has so far made him about $4Bn. When this case is cleared, that value may well be considerably higher. That is how you build value. If it's sportswashing as the raging element of the journalistic world suggest (that's you Migs), then they are not very good at it!!!
Incidentally as an aside, the Glazers are about $4-5Bn up as well and FSG etc similarly well placed.
All of these Premier League investments are about making money and it's been a very profitable medium with some great multiples and until City came along to ruin their party, owning a team in the established elite of the Premier League was a very safe investment in an otherwise volatile sports market. So when faced with a threat to that safe investment situation, what is the go to approach of American business. They look to influence the rule makers to legislate in their favour and they litigate to maintain barriers to entry and competition. Litigation is part of the American way of life and especially of doing business and protecting your pitch. Winning such litigation isn't actually that important, but often just tying would be competitors up in knots with ever changing attacks is enough to slow down their advance and to either convince them that it's just too difficult and sell up, or in the technology world often force them into a merger/sale etc. By making life difficult and showing the ever increasing height of regulatory hurdles that a would be competitor needs to jump in order to just compete, they also deter others from joining the party. In the land of the free, big business is anything but simple. Once you have a leadership position and influence at a regulatory level, it's about building the defences to cement your position at the trough.
Does any of this start to ring bells?
As so we return to looking at Khaldoun and Mansour, with their blue chip investor reputation for building value and establishing companies as genuine world class operations. Reputation is vital to their operations and whilst City is a small investment for them really, it is very high profile and it is also extremely profitable with the high multiples mentioned earlier. These guys are incredibly well connected and a "conviction" for false accounting would be shattering to them They would survive it obviously, but their standing in boardrooms of companies where their investment is placed would be diminished, so doing what we think they are accused of at City would be an incredibly high stakes game and I don't think that's in their DNA.
About a year or so ago, the UK Government staged an investment forum chaired by the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. On the small panel to talk about investing into the UK and deriving value, was Khaldoun. Here we saw our Chairman, with charges effectively for fraud hanging over him still selected as a blue chip panelist. Hunt even congratulated him on the brilliant job he had done with City. Politicians are always careful who they endorse and at the time I thought it was very significant that Khaldoun was selected, despite what was going on in the background. They didn't invite the Glazers or FSG (with their own shady history) and they certainly didn't invite Simon Jordan or Jamie Carragher! Ok i'm joking with the last two, but my point is that sometimes we don't really grasp just who our Chairman is or how he is perceived outside of the halfwit riddled football bubble.
Now given all that we know about Khaldoun and the Sheikh, do we think they can spot a trap? A trap so obvious that it couldn't be more unsubtle if it had the words "THIS IS A TRAP" written on it ten feet high in luminous paint? The trappiest trappy trap ever made? Do we really think they are that stupid, because from the very day that FFP was announced it has had one target and one target only and that is to trap City. I simply cannot reconcile anything that they have done or any of their other behaviour with such a level of stupidity that would be best placed in a road runner cartoon from the 60s/70s. It's inconceivable.
If we follow the money, everything points straight at the market incumbents (G14 and the red tops) protecting their position and revenues at all costs. Regulate and litigate. Unfortunately for them they are up against some of the smartest operators around who, as they have done elsewhere, have sought the best people to do their best work in a world-class business environment. The biggest clue for me throughout this whole sorry saga has been the use of the word "impartial". Khaldoun and co have clearly always believed that the deck has been loaded against then, but as soon as they get an impartial panel, the facts become irrefutable. When the vested interests are removed they say that the facts speak for themselves and given their track record, I have no reason to doubt or disbelieve them.