Political relations between UK-EU

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bluethrunthru said:
By not applying any rules to our imports from the EU aren't we already in breach now? We have trade deals and apply checks limits and tariffs on trade from everywhere else based on trade deals yet not on stuff from the EU therefore should anywhere else complain to the WTO about this they would have to step in. I guess so far everyone else is staying out of a local spat
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The individual trade agreement dictates tariffs and how to enforce and remedies so we can’t really compare one to another. If they decide to rip up the withdrawal agreement (A16 isn’t the clause to invoke, apologies) then WTO kicks in. But it would surely have to be something pretty serious, damaging and sustained to make the agreement unviable . Any specific/ individual breaches the injured side would seek recourse in court first if they can’t be resolved through dialogue - obviously going to court isn’t ideal for cordial relationships but we have two sides that are largely displaying hostility to each other for their own reasons.
 
metalblue said:
The individual trade agreement dictates tariffs and how to enforce and remedies so we can’t really compare one to another. If they decide to rip up the withdrawal agreement (A16 isn’t the clause to invoke, apologies) then WTO kicks in. But it would surely have to be something pretty serious, damaging and sustained to make the agreement unviable . Any specific/ individual breaches the injured side would seek recourse in court first if they can’t be resolved through dialogue - obviously going to court isn’t ideal for cordial relationships but we have two sides that are largely displaying hostility to each other for their own reasons.
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I thought one side was happily implementing the signed off agreement and its only hostility is in relation to the other side’s stated intention not to abide by the agreement. Naturally this U.K. manufactured crisis is being used by politicians on both sides to further their own domestic agendas.
 
BobKowalski said:
If A16 is triggered by the UK then a dispute mechanism comes into play. The UK has to demonstrate ‘harm’ to NI as evidence of its decision. Note: the UK not ‘liking something’ is not sufficient. Additionally, Cummings telling the world that the UK Govt signed the protocol in bad faith and never intended to honour it, is not going to help.

The US and EU are very fond of using targeted trade tariffs - Scotch Whisky, Harley’s etc - designed to hurt politically as much as anything.

Triggering A16 after the EU presents a raft of measures in response to its consultations with NI business leaders and politicians and giving then some of the things they had been asking for (details TBA), will simply worsen relations with Europe even further.

But, it will get good headlines in the Express and keep the ‘little Englanders’ happy, which I guess is the point.
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Cummings is a horror child. I wouldn’t trust him to tell me the time of day.

Agree that there has to be evidence of harm be it economically or socially - I can’t see a solid argument for economic harm so that leaves social harm - and that’s something the political “elite” know full well they can create, they’ve already proven as much.

It natural that when tariffs are used as a form of punishment they will go for the most damaging they can get away with domestically. I can’t see, for example, the UK going after the German car manufacturers which would cause most damage to them simply because it fucks us up here as well. But french cheese? Yes! me not being able to enjoy my raclette isn’t going to be damaging to the British economy plus its also symbolic which plays well to those who enjoy that sort of tit for tat, stick it up the French, take that Pogba you **** drama
 
west didsblue said:
I thought one side was happily implementing the signed off agreement and its only hostility is in relation to the other side’s stated intention not to abide by the agreement. Naturally this U.K. manufactured crisis is being used by politicians on both sides to further their own domestic agendas.
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I think it’s more about one side realising they fucked up. They should have acknowledged they needed more time (and used COVID as an oven ready excuse) but it appears egos or arrogance got the better of them and they left far too many loose ends. The problem as I see it is that it’s almost impossible to reach a pragmatic solution when the environment is becoming increasingly hostile.
 
metalblue said:
Cummings is a horror child. I wouldn’t trust him to tell me the time of day.

Agree that there has to be evidence of harm be it economically or socially - I can’t see a solid argument for economic harm so that leaves social harm - and that’s something the political “elite” know full well they can create, they’ve already proven as much.

It natural that when tariffs are used as a form of punishment they will go for the most damaging they can get away with domestically. I can’t see, for example, the UK going after the German car manufacturers which would cause most damage to them simply because it fucks us up here as well. But french cheese? Yes! me not being able to enjoy my raclette isn’t going to be damaging to the British economy plus its also symbolic which plays well to those who enjoy that sort of tit for tat, stick it up the French, take that Pogba you **** drama
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The problem is Cummings claims are given wide publicity and credence because he was in the heart of Govt at the time. Dublin have already referenced it and it matches what they already suspect.

If the UK reject EU/Dublin attempts to make the protocol more workable with yet more unrealistic redlines then they will just point to what Cummings has said and plan from that.

The UK triggering A16 will be seen as bad faith and other countries can not negotiate on that basis. All that is left is retaliation.

This Govt fought and won an election on the basis Brexit is done. Cummings words make this a lie. The Govts actions make this a lie. The election like the referendum, was won on lies, and countries run on lies always crash and burn. The only question is how much damage is done on the way.
 
The Irish political establishment right now...



And,

Bertie Ahern: ‘The whole game is go try to kick the can down the road they’ve (Britain) been at it since 2016. It’s been in their sights to rip up the protocol.’
 
Chris in London said:
Just a recap on the news from the last few months.



Our care homes are struggling to recruit staff. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

The hospitality sector is struggling to recruit staff. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

The retail sector is struggling to recruit staff. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

Our petrol stations have been running out of fuel. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

We are short of 100,000 HGV drivers. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

The port of Felixstowe is logjammed. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

Our supermarkets are running low of some types of food. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

There is a major problem with the production of CO2 with serious consequences for various sectors of the economy. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

150,000 pigs will need to be slaughtered. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

Fruit and vegetables have been left to rot in the fields because there are insufficient numbers of people willing to work as fruit pickers. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

A trillion pounds of investment funds has left the UK economy and moved to mainland Europe. This is nothing to do with Brexit.

Our fishing industry is in worse state than ever. This is nothing to do with Brexit.


It is perhaps fortunate that our economy has been so remarkably unaffected by our decision to deprive ourselves of unlimited access to the goods, services, labour and capital across the 27 states of the European Union. Things might have been quite bad, otherwise.
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Most of this is not affecting NI and hence the concentration on the NI protocol. This government can’t have one part of the UK suffering from Brexit and another part not. The public will, eventually, twig that NI as part of the EU is not suffering like us and so the reason why this government want to scupper it.
 
west didsblue said:
EU being clever here.
Not going to look great when business leaders and politicians in NI welcome the proposals and Frosty says no.
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Which he will do of course. This government want this protocol scrapped. These issues will make it even more important for Frosties to sat no. No way do they want NI to be in a better position than the rest of the UK.
 
west didsblue said:
Nothing more predictable than the DUP acting like cunts.
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They are always a 2/3 party.
Don’t understand how they can have the ‘Democratic’ part in their name.
Go back to ‘69 and watch Paisley early interviews and they have always openly said they would fight with whatever means against a United Ireland. They now have a Democratically gained way of staying British whatever the future outcomes, guaranteed within the GFA, but that is not enough for them.
Why?
For the same reasons it’s always been. They can’t stomach the Democratic will of the North ever affording the Nationalist community the same possibilities, let alone certainties.

Business?
Economics?

Forget it.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
They are always a 2/3 party.
Don’t understand how they can have the ‘Democratic’ part in their name.
Go back to ‘69 and watch Paisley early interviews and they have always openly said they would fight with whatever means against a United Ireland. They now have a Democratically gained way of staying British whatever the future outcomes, guaranteed within the GFA, but that is not enough for them.
Why?
For the same reasons it’s always been. They can’t stomach the Democratic will of the North ever affording the Nationalist community the same possibilities, let alone certainties.

Business?
Economics?

Forget it.
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What do they do when come next election they are no longer the largest unionist party in NI and Sinn Fein have a majority in Stormont? What happens then when their bat shit crazy " no, no. no" stance gets them no fucking where
 
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