Premier League Champions Calculation

[NQCitizen]

After last night, and accounting for us winning every remaining home game, we stand currently on 77 points?

I would be stunned if we could not accumulate another ten points from Norwich, Palace, Hull, Everton, Liverpool, United and Arsenal?

Home form is so crucial.

No team has ever won every single home game it seems wildly ambitious that most people are assuming we'll manage to.

We nearly did it in 2011/12. Two points only dropped all season long, and that was to the Indian Sign, luck of the devil Mackems.

No I know and a few other teams match that record. But all indicators suggest no matter how good you are you drop a couple of points at home at some point.

Purely on the weight of probability it's a stretch to bank on that. That said I'm sure we can cancel that out with our away form.

 

[mcfcirlam]

Since our defeat against Chelsea and our draw against Norwich the situation is now as follows
Assuming we win our 7 home games this will give us 54pts home, we have 21 away points already
Winning Target 80pts 5 pts from 6 games
Winning Target 83pts 8pts from 6 games
Winning Target 86pts 11pts from 6 games

With a target of 86, wins at Hull and Palace will mean 5 points from Rags, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.
We play Rags and Arsenal within 5 days at End of March, 4 points from these two games should do it.

 

[Manchester33]

Since our defeat against Chelsea and our draw against Norwich the situation is now as follows
Assuming we win our 7 home games this will give us 54pts home, we have 21 away points already
Winning Target 80pts 5 pts from 6 games
Winning Target 83pts 8pts from 6 games
Winning Target 86pts 11pts from 6 games

With a target of 86, wins at Hull and Palace will mean 5 points from Rags, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.
We play Rags and Arsenal within 5 days at End of March, 4 points from these two games should do it.

Interesting stuff. Another good thing to see would be Chelsea's alternative of this to see how easy/difficult it will be for them to reach the 86 point mark.

 

[supercity88]

Since our defeat against Chelsea and our draw against Norwich the situation is now as follows
Assuming we win our 7 home games this will give us 54pts home, we have 21 away points already
Winning Target 80pts 5 pts from 6 games
Winning Target 83pts 8pts from 6 games
Winning Target 86pts 11pts from 6 games

With a target of 86, wins at Hull and Palace will mean 5 points from Rags, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.
We play Rags and Arsenal within 5 days at End of March, 4 points from these two games should do it.

Interesting stuff. Another good thing to see would be Chelsea's alternative of this to see how easy/difficult it will be for them to reach the 86 point mark.

I think that is spot on. I did a bit of a prediction myself. That was before Norwich and had us and Chelsea tied on 85points going off previous results this season in corresponding fixtures and also over the past two seasons. Chelsea have struggled at the Hawthorns so I put them down as drawing. I think if we win our remaining home games the away games will take care of themselves - in pressure situations we generally do pretty well. I would look at it differently though. I think we will more likely get 4 points from hull and palace but win at the swamp and Goodison. From our remaining away games I think we will get 10 - 12 points though so it works out the same!

 

[RP2]

I've said it before on another thread, and I'll say it again.

80 points will win the premier league this season.

 

[mcfcirlam]

From a Chelsea stand point, they can get a maximum of 93 points.
Home - Everton, Spurs, Arsenal, Stoke, Sunderland, Norwich
Away - Fulham, Villa, Palace, Swansea, Liverpool, Cardiff

They have 4 London Derbies( would have been 5, but they've played Rags twice)

I wouldn't like to predict how their results go but they have recently drawn against West Ham and West Brom so it just goes to show.<br /><br />-- Wed Feb 12, 2014 12:45 pm --<br /><br />

I've said it before on another thread, and I'll say it again.

80 points will win the premier league this season.

If it is 80 points, then lets get the Champagne and Cigars out now. I hope it is, but the last 2 weeks have changed my opinion.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Since our defeat against Chelsea and our draw against Norwich the situation is now as follows
Assuming we win our 7 home games this will give us 54pts home, we have 21 away points already
Winning Target 80pts 5 pts from 6 games
Winning Target 83pts 8pts from 6 games
Winning Target 86pts 11pts from 6 games

With a target of 86, wins at Hull and Palace will mean 5 points from Rags, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.
We play Rags and Arsenal within 5 days at End of March, 4 points from these two games should do it.

I like your logic but I am not sure 86 is enough. If Chelsea only do as well as last season in their remaining fixtures, they will finish on 87. But that fails to take account of three factors, 1 they are a better side than last season, 2 they are in great form (last 10 games P10, W7, D3. GF16, GA3) and 3 they have manager who knows how to win. It strikes me as unlikely that they will "only" do as well as last season.

Last night's draw at West Brom was pleasing, but in fact they lost that game last year, so they are now +12 points up on last year, hence projecting 87 (they finished on 75 last year). I can see them getting 87 at least and 88, 89 as being a distinct possibility.

EDITED to correct the numbers, which I got wrong.

 

[moomba]

I think it will depend on each sides tough games. We've got to match their results agsinst Everton, Arsenal, Spurs at home and Liverpool away with our results away at rags, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton.

I suspect we'll both drop points were we don't expect to.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Regards my post above, I got my maths wrong. If Chelsea perform just the same as they did last year in their remaining fixtures, they will finish on 87.

I agree Moomba that teams will slip up where you don't expect them to. But they will also win where perhaps a win was not expected. There's nothing certain in any of this and predicting the outcome on a game by game basis is fairly pointless. But what you can do is look at trends and patterns and aggregrations. If Chelsea got 31 points from the remaining 13 games last season, it's a reasonable projection that they will get around that number again this season. Especially bearing in mind current form and who their manager is etc. The fact that they are already +12 up on last season tells you that for them to do worse than last season on the remaining games would be a surprise. We should be expecting them to get 87 points or more.

 

[Skip Donoghue]

I think Liverpool have still got a chance and they will have a big say.....it's not just between us and Chelsea