President Joe Biden

[SebastianBlue]

Is it true that #45 has closed the average national pct gap to around 9 pts?

I am not sure that has much to do with our conversation, especially given BIPOC voters tend to be woefully underrepresented in national polling, but according to Fox News (which I only reference so it can’t be claimed I am using a favourable poll to Biden) it is 10 points.

But quite a few analysts think the shrinking gap, regardless of the poll, is due to some voters being unhappy about the delay in VP announcement and will likely shift back up for Biden after the Harris selection *and* the democratic convention.

Oh, and just letting Trump talk more about the “1917 pandemic” ending the Second World War.

 

[Bigga]

I am not sure that has much to do with our conversation, especially given BIPOC voters tend to be woefully underrepresented in national polling, but according to Fox News (which I only reference so it can’t be claimed I am using a favourable poll to Biden) it is 10 points.

But quite a few analysts think the shrinking gap, regardless of the poll, is due to some voters being unhappy about the delay in VP announcement and will likely shift back up for Biden after the Harris selection *and* the democratic convention.

Oh, and just letting Trump talk more about the “1917 pandemic” ending the Second World War.

It's all relevant.

Let's see how it shapes up in a month. I have a feeling the Orange One is going to be desperate enough to offer things to the working class. We'll see, though.

It's a long time 'til Nov.

 

[cjn]

I am not sure that has much to do with our conversation, especially given BIPOC voters tend to be woefully underrepresented in national polling, but according to Fox News (which I only reference so it can’t be claimed I am using a favourable poll to Biden) it is 10 points.

But quite a few analysts think the shrinking gap, regardless of the poll, is due to some voters being unhappy about the delay in VP announcement and will likely shift back up for Biden after the Harris selection *and* the democratic convention.

Oh, and just letting Trump talk more about the “1917 pandemic” ending the Second World War.

It's especially dumb because that margin would be the largest since 1980. I'm not sure Trump should be excited it's down to "only" nine.

 

[SebastianBlue]

It's especially dumb because that margin would be the largest since 1980. I'm not sure Trump should be excited it's down to "only" nine.

I agree, but to be fair to @Bigga, speaking as a data scientist, trends are where real information lives (i.e. context is king), and I think that is what he was referencing.

But, again, this is a relatively short-term trend that many more learned in this than I believe will reverse soon enough.

Not that any of it may matter in the end if Trump and co are successful in their current efforts to subvert the election.

 

[domalino]

That’s a convenient filter given you get to define who is “neolib”.

And I have a feeling your identification of “neolib” heavily overlaps with people that support the choice and/or you disagree with.

By the way, I was including leaders that have previously spoken about their concerns with Harris during the presidential primaries, some even referencing them this afternoon when expressing their support for her selection.

I think you are confusing “Black support” with Harris being everyone’s top preference.

Politics does not operate in absolutes like that.

Neolib is a catch all for everyone @Bigga doesn't like.

 

[Bigga]

I agree, but to be fair to @Bigga, speaking as a data scientist, trends are where real information lives (i.e. context is king), and I think that is what he was referencing.

But, again, this is a relatively short-term trend that many more learned in this than I believe will reverse soon enough.

Not that any of it may matter in the end if Trump and co are successful in their current efforts to subvert the election.

Correct that was my thinking and, thus, why I said we'll see where we are in a month. Once the love dies down and #45 sees who he's up against, we'll see what tactic he uses to try and damage the opposition.

 

[Bigga]

Neolib is a catch all for everyone @Bigga doesn't like.

'Neolib', for your information is the term used for politicians that accept money from big business and give them a pass further down the line, when it's people that should come first.

Is that okay with you...?

Only knobheads think it's 'catch all'.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Two pieces of interesting info related to fund raising — Act Blue raised $6 million in the two hours after Harris was named the VP candidate, and Donald Trump and Ivana Trump donated (separately) to Harris’ California AG campaign in 2013.

 

[cjn]

I agree, but to be fair to @Bigga, speaking as a data scientist, trends are where real information lives (i.e. context is king), and I think that is what he was referencing.

But, again, this is a relatively short-term trend that many more learned in this than I believe will reverse soon enough.

Not that any of it may matter in the end if Trump and co are successful in their current efforts to subvert the election.

I really wouldn't chalk these 1% moves up to anything more than noise in the polls as of yet but if you're looking at the short term trend it's actually back upwards in the last 4-5 days. Either way, I think it's pretty obvious things are going to tighten between now and election day. No one actually thinks Biden is winning by 9-10 points in November.

Polling average here:

National : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[SebastianBlue]

I really wouldn't chalk these 1% moves up to anything more than noise in the polls as of yet but if you're looking at the short term trend it's actually back upwards in the last 4-5 days. Either way, I think it's pretty obvious things are going to tighten between now and election day. No one actually thinks Biden is winning by 9-10 points in November.

Polling average here:

National : President: general election Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

That was my point, mate: trends are where we actually derive insight and this is too limited to discern anything of real value. I was just being fair to Bigga’s intention with his post.

Though, I was referring to the 10 day national polling gap trend which, going off anti- or neutral-Biden surveys (just to be above reproach for the purposes of this specific discussion) had sloped slightly downward. And Trumpers were running with that, as they usually do.

But I also pointed out, for the sake of our specific discussion, that BIPOC voters are historically underrepresented in national polling, so it’s not a trend that would be especially helpful for arguing for or against Harris having “Black support” or how her selection would or would not shift the polling.

I am also not convinced the objective poll national aggregate point gap will ultimately tighten that much.

But that’s also completely separate from the ultimate vote pct gap. Biden could go in to Election month (we’ll be lucky if it only takes four weeks this cycle) with a 10 point lead and still lose, and badly if Trump is successful in his current efforts.

I know I sound like a broken record in that regard, but I do think it is very important to remind everyone that many of these discussions are mostly academic when one candidate has no intention of playing by the rules (or abiding law) and largely has control over many of the mechanisms of the election process itself (for this cycle specifically, given what is likely to come in the pandemic in October/November due to Trump and co’s at times intentional mismanagement).