President Joe Biden

[cjn]

The fivethirtyeight election forecast came out this morning and gives Biden at a 71% chance of winning, which feels about right. They were one of the few that gave Trump a decent shot in 2016, so worth keeping an eye on. I'll feel much, much better about Biden's lead if the polls look the same after Labor Day.

2020 Election Forecast

Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[pudge]

...Pence but, really, who couldn't tear him a new arsehole...?

I reckon he'd quite like that too

 

[mat]

"I chose Kamala not just for her colour, but also her great ass! Now let me eat that peach!"

 

[Dax777]

What matters is whether she has the Black support.

She does not.

The Democratic Party doesn't really court black votes. Since black voters vote 90 to 94% Democratic almost every elections they don't need to be courted.

With the black vote all you need is to trigger us emotionally every 4 years. It was reparations 4 years ago, this year it Black Lives Matter. I'm sure they'll have something in store for us in 4 years.

Kamala Harris represents an appeal to Suburban Liberal Whites voters with a woke edge but not so woke that they'd consider socialism. That's the vote this is trying to capture.

 

[Dax777]

None of this is evidence for why she does not have “Black support”.

And, as someone that lives in the US, I can say most evidence (from reactions of Black American leaders to the announcement, to polling about the VP candidates prior to selection, to conversations I have had with Black Americans personally) seem to point to the opposite of your assertion. In fact, I have quite literally gotten a few messages off mates and acquintences talking about how great it is to finally have something to be happy/excited about, especially as they are convinced Biden will not finish his term if Trump doesn’t end up stealing the election (and the country).

I can post a selection of leaders’ tweets regarding the selection if that would be helpful?

But I am sure you know more about what all of those people think than they do.

A selection of leaders tweets AFTER she has been nominated is pointless. Any leader with any common sense had best be positive once the nomination had happened. Frankly any tweet by them is less about Kamala and more about them safeguarding their own interest. I'd have thought that would be self evident.

Kamala Harris doesn't excite black people. That doesn't mean black folks won't vote for a ticket she is on. Most black folks vote Democratic Party anyway. So they'll continue to.

I don't know what black people you are talking to, but in so far as they are aware of who she is politically, most black people are lukewarm at best about her. Biden is probably more popular amongst black people than Kamala is.

Her record of threatening to jail poor black parents for truancy by their kids doesn't sit well.with any black group. Probably shouldn't sit well with anyone.

One can forgive her though, as her heart was in the right place. She was simply trying to get black kids to take the opportunity of education and the doors it opens. "But using the ignorance of poor folks against them is kinda ratchet."
That's a direct quote from a NY rep I know. And it's not uncommon.

But her policy to block nonviolent offenders from parole in order to use them as cheap labor for California is just beyond the pail. And the kinda stuff Democrats would have to spend the whole fall blurring to the best of their abilities. Good thing bthe media is behind the Dems...

All that said, I think she's an Ok choice. The people that don't like her will often still vote Democrats anyway. And the Woke-ish suburban soccer mom's would find her an acceptable enough representation of their dreams and support In droves.

You know she is a smorgasbord of Identity excellence. Immigrant child, Black, Indian, Woman, Feminist. Multi-Diversical! I mean what's not to like....


I'll save that for another post.

 

[SebastianBlue]

A selection of leaders tweets AFTER she has been nominated is pointless. Any leader with any common sense had best be positive once the nomination had happened. Frankly any tweet by them is less about Kamala and more about them safeguarding there own interest. I'd have thought that would be self evident.

Kamala Harris doesn't excite black people. That doesn't mean black folks won't vote for a ticket she is on. Most black folks vote Democratic Party anyway. So they'll continue to.

I don't know what black people you are talking to, but I'm so far as they are aware of who she is politically, most black people are lukewarm towards her. Biden is probably more popular amongst black people than Kamala is.

Her record of threatening to jail poor black folks for truancy by their kids does sit well.woyh any black group. Probably shouldn't sit well with anyone.

One can forgive her though, her heart was in the right place, but using the ignorance of poor folks against them is kinda ratchet.

But her policy to block nonviolent offenders payroll in order to use them as cheap labor for California is just beyond the pail. And the kinda stuff Democrats would have to spend the whole fall blurring those facts.

All that said, I think she's an Ok choice. The people that don't like her will often still vote Democrats anyway. And the Woke-ish suburban soccer mom's would find her an acceptable enough representation of their dreams.

A poll of leadership AFTER her selection being pointless makes no sense in the context of the discussion we were having. It is the point, just like any poll. What is now the sentiment of Black leaders is most important for assessment of current “Black support”, with what was the sentiment less important.

And of course they are guarding their self-interest. That is blatantly obvious and also completely separate from whether Biden/Harris have their support, which was the crux of the discussion. I thought those two things being separate from one another would be self evident.

So — and forgive me for the pun — you have no point there.

Otherwise you seem to have spent quite a lot of time and effort simply agreeing with me that she likely has “Black support”, only offering sweeping alternative (and unsourced) assessments of what “excites most Black people”, which is again separate from the conversation Bigga and I were having about “Black support” *and* the point that I made.

Or were you arguing against a point I wasn’t making?

In which case your post was... pointless?

 

[Dax777]

Two pieces of interesting info related to fund raising — Act Blue raised $6 million in the two hours after Harris was named the VP candidate, and Donald Trump and Ivana Trump donated (separately) to Harris’ California AG campaign in 2013.

Duuuuuuh! That's coz Donald Trump is a Democrat. Only ran as a Republican coz he was an opportunitist and saw one in the Republican party.

 

[Dax777]

[

Your opinions are worthless , they're all based on pre determined bias . Listen to what the people want not just media driven inflammatory action groups. American people of all race and creed want Trump, you just have to deal with it.

In fairness, this is no more factual than @SebastianBlue nonsensical claims of an election being stolen.

 

[SebastianBlue]

[

In fairness, this is no more factual than @SebastianBlue nonsensical claims of an election being stolen.

And with that, I again disengage with you, @Dax777.

Anyone that thinks that it is nonsense that Trump and his camp are attempting to use his presidential powers and authority to unduly influence, if not subvert, the presidential election, despite the daily mounting evidence supporting such an assessment (shared by many, many more learned souls than I), isn’t available for a good faith discussion.

 

[kaz7]

Good speech from him and his running mate tonite