Maybe a little much, but certainly intimidate and scare them straight. Every time Taylor sets foot on the Edihad campus, he should be afraid for his safety. Maybe then he will ask to avoid out matches, or the FA will push to have him reassigned.
well.... if we all want to get back at taylor... there is a simple and most effective way to do it......!
Take out the big wins which Pawson cant realistically stop and it all falls apart. Mason seems awful but i'm not 100% convinced. The only one i'd really bet against City with is Taylor (not that I can bring myself to do it..!). The data sample with Pawson is really compelling but I think more evidence is needed.
Tight games under Pawson since 2011 - W2-1, 1-1 (L2-1 AET), L1-0, 2-2,0-0,0-0. May just be random chance but 1 win out of 6 tight games.....
Another good sign is to look at the league tables using results from the games the referee has been in charge of. The data is all there. I work out the points each team would have and then adjust for a 38 game season. So if a referee has had 20 games for one team, I work out their points from those games, multiply by 38 and divide by the number of games (ie 20). This is not an exact science but over several seasons shows some interesting and alarming stats.
First we need a reference point, so lets work out the average points per season for the teams over the last 6 years.
City 82
Chelsea 75
Utd 75
Arsenal 72
Spurs 72
Liverpool 67
So one team is clearly well ahead over that period and therefore over a 6 year sample we'd expect the games witheach of our referees under study to reflect that with some variance... or not as it happens..
Based on Pawson's games in this period the table would be :
Utd 90!!!! (+15)
Liverpool 74 (+7)
City 73 (-9)
Alarm bells start to ring especially as ALL OF THOSE GAMES ARE POST TAGGART when they have been awful!!!!!. It may just be random chance of course and it's not based on lots of games. Lets have a look at Taylor...
Utd 85 (+10pts)
Arsenal 81 (+9)
Liverpool 75 (+8)
City 72 (-10)
Starting to see a pattern yet??
Next let's look at Mason's league table
Chelsea 98 (+23)
Arsenal 85 (+13)
Utd 81 (+6)
Spurs 76 (+4)
City 73 (-12)
Doesn't look like a rag supporter despite our fears about him. City well below expected levels though. This could be an anomaly though (see below)
Of course there was a massive change in 2013 when Taggart retired so Utd's numbers may have been skewed by his two years in our study. So looking at the tables since Taggart, the average points are as follows:
City 82
Chelsea 77
Arsenal 73
Liverpool 72
Spurs 72
Utd 70
Pawson in these 5 seasons:
Utd 90!! (+20!!!)
Liverpool 74 (+2)
City 73 (-9)
Taylor
Utd 81 (+9)
Liverpool 78 (+6)
Arsenal 76 (+3)
City 65 (-17)
Mason
City 101
Chelsea 95
Arsenal 88
Utd 76
Suggests that in recent years, despite appearances Mason maybe isn't as awful as we think, but Taylor and Pawson just look like rag sympathisers....
The above is not actually 100% accurate as the referee based tables include cup games whereas the reference table are based on league points. To be really accurate I should have looked up all cup games for the teams and added to the reference data but I didn't have time.
Cheers. Interesting, but I think we're looking at things differently.
For Pawson, I don't see how he can be blamed for 0-0 away draws (Villa, Leicester in 2015) and drawing at WHU, plus the obligatory defeat at Liverpool. He's not gone mad with cards either.
I also think that his pool of matches is too small to be a statistical pool.
I don't think Pawson is terrible or biassed.
Mason is terrible but not especially biased.
Some of the others look more dodgy, but I don't have time now to think about them further.
Show me the law that says this. It doesn't exist.MillionMilesAway no sorry but you are wrong, he did state that once you have pulled out the yellow card and have made a note of the player, you then cannot go back and change your mind and send the player off. It is against the laws of the game. So as I stated we have a serious grounds for appealing that red card, because you can clearly see Mr Taylor writing Fabain 's name on the yellow card and therefore he has been booked so you cannot then send him off, when you have the yellow card in your hand and have written his name on the card.
Eli Panic once a players has been booked you cannot appeal the booking, but you can appeal a red card offence. Therefore that is why I said that the club should appeal the sending off. The reason is that Anthony Taylor's judgement has been influenced by some outside source, either the 4th official who is not allowed to interfere with the ref's running of the game, or by the players of Wigan football club who can clearly be seen trying to get the ref to change his mind and send off Fabian Delph again which is not allowed.
Cheers. Interesting, but I think we're looking at things differently.
For Pawson, I don't see how he can be blamed for 0-0 away draws (Villa, Leicester in 2015) and drawing at WHU, plus the obligatory defeat at Liverpool. He's not gone mad with cards either.
I also think that his pool of matches is too small to be a statistical pool.
I don't think Pawson is terrible or biassed.
Mason is terrible but not especially biased.
Some of the others look more dodgy, but I don't have time now to think about them further.
As I said it's just an analysis, i'm not going through games match by match, decision by decision. I suppose psychologically, seeing a referee in charge that you dont trust must effect the way a player performs, that is very evident whenever we get into a close match with Taylor in charge. So in theory a referee can impact a game just by his presence.
When studying for possible referee bias the signs are usually very subtle - if they were obvious the official would lose his job or never progress far enough to worry us. A big sign though is where one team's results seem to significantly outperform expectations and their bitterest rivals do the complete opposite. I do not have a clue where Pawson's allegiances really lay, but I can use the data to make a guess and then see if subsequent data backs that theory up. With Taylor there is no doubt, but if we trust his data, then Pawson has to also come under scrutiny as his numbers are statistically worse. I use data not my eyes.
For Pawson the data sample is quite small - those with Taylor and the now departed Clattenberg are bigger. It could just be a coincidence with Pawson but i'm immediately suspicious of any referee whose league table looks distorted towards Utd, when based on overall results the "neutral" table should look different. It's an anomaly and all anomalies deserve investigation for me as they are potential betting edges. Now, I dont bet on City games as my judgement is biased, but if this study was for a team I would bet on/against I wouldn't need his trends to continue for many more games to start getting involved.
You are right of course in that his data could just be natural variation but it is already outside of what I would term normal deviations which is why i'd be interested. It is possible that his league table could show bias to Utd because he had some of their cup games against lower league sides and the numbers may be skewed, but the differential to what i'd expect and what I see with most of the other experienced officials is very big, so i'm suspicious. Before betting i'd look into that to make sure my numbers are robust, but one thing I learned a long time ago is that data tells a better long term story than relying on my eyes and in the case of a City game my biased blue tinted emotions. On a similar tack I guess that's why clubs and other major sporting teams now have so many analysts involved looking for little gains.
I would definitely have Pawson on my "watch with suspicion" list though. As I have said before, when we win easily we dont notice the refereeing as much, but in the close games it's worth keeping an eye. Pawson's data sample is still small, but if we fail to win the next few tight games with him and Utd keep winning similar games him then my suspicions would get very dark and into Taylor territory. Maybe i'm a paranoid blue, but I have used this strategy very successfully to find value bets on other club games. It's amazing what you can find when you look hard enough!
As you can tell, i'm an exciting night out.......