Using the scientific method we know that Jesus and Muhammad both almost certainly existed, the latter is more confirmed but the former isn’t even debated now among mainstream scholars.
We know that Greek, Roman and Egyptian gods were used to explain very regular celestial movements that we now can explain via quantum mechanics.
Buddhism isn’t really a theism as such so I don’t think you can put it in the same box as all of the above.
With this in mind, and the verification of the two holy people being so central to Christianity and Islam, I would say that if… and it’s the biggest if in the world… that there is a God and one belief system we have on earth is true (which is a huge if as well on its own), then I would say these two religions are the likeliest to be true, out of the lot you’ve mentioned… and probably many others.
My personal belief is that it’s either no god, one of these two or deism… and I think point 1 and 4 are much more believable on paper.