Russian invasion of Ukraine

I live in Ukraine.

I have to say I am very surprised you've not mentioned this at all in your previous 200 posts in the thread.

Also a bit odd that you said this earlier -

Seen the price of fuel recently?

This is going to impact all of us I am afraid, it doesn't mean we are going to have tanks rolling down our streets - but more holistic impacts.

Weird thing for someone who lives in Ukraine to say.


I believe Russia has 900k active military personnel.

Yes. They aren't moving every single Russian soldier in the world into Ukraine and leaving Russia empty. The invasion force is 200k and it's outnumbered.
 
I would have expected someone who lives in Ukraine to know that Russia's invasion force of 180-200,000 is significantly less than Ukraine's 215,000 active army + 200,000 called up trained reserves. We won't mention the 60,000 new territorial guards as they're not much more than a last resort although they are freeing up trained soldiers to go elsewhere.

I don't live in Ukraine, I was posting something from a friend who a friend of a friend who lives in Ukraine.

Hence the quotes.
 
No, we get a confused, patchy sense of what is happening on the ground. I may be cautiously optimistic, but this conflict is by no means over, hence the caution.

But you cannot take a country the size of Ukraine, with a population of 45 million with 200k troops. Especially as they are facing a well equipped modern force of comparable size in the conflict area. The Russians can capture a city here and there, but is that city under their control and subdued? How many troops do they need to station per city? What is the overall strategic plan here? Is eventually levelling every city one by one going to secure any thing other than eternal enmity? Can Russia sustain the current level of losses even accounting for Ukraine over estimating them?

And that’s not even taking into account sanctions starting to bite.

In the Iraq war the Americans said they needed 300k to control it they had 50k
 

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