Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BlueMoonday]

*raped Berlin

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Don't disagree but Ostpolitik has to be judged in the long term and its legacy is what we have now. Sure it took a Looney Tune to upset it but the lesson of history is that a Looney Tune will always appear. Germany, of all countries, should know this and should have taken it into account. They finished up behaving as though Russia was a stable partner on whom they could rely for half their energy. The take over of Crimea and the fostering of civil war in Donbas should have warned them to diversify their sources. They didn't and I don't think it's too fanciful to suggest that the mind set of Ospolitik was responsible for some self deception. Against that, of course, we should weigh the politically westward movement of Russia's ex client states and the reunification of Germany. Ok, ostpolitik not failed, but flawed.

We're still sweeping up the mess left by the cold war really, which in itself was part of the containment of the mess left by WW2. I suspect we'll see some redrawing/settling of the post USSR world now. China may be a natural russian ally, but as others have said is just as likely to sit back and just act opportunistically maybe buying up cheap russian energy, supplying military hardware (putting russia in debt), or going for Taiwan while the west is focussed on Putin
The re armament of Germany is significant. As the biggest/wealthiest country in Europe they should naturally be the most powerful militarily, but they are still dealing with guilt for past naughtiness.

 

[BobKowalski]

Dont think it is in China is it?

Seems to be. It’s part of CCTV 4 which covers China and HK. It is also on YouTube (which is weird as YT is blocked in China), but it isn’t illegal to watch Youtube with a VPN.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Many years into the future when this is a distant memory I do think we, the west will look back with a sense of shame that we didn't do more sooner. A no fly zone would have and still would save many many innocent Ukrainian lives.

It doesn't automatically have to mean Nato declares war on Russia, it will be in their court to decide if they want to ignore it and take on Nato, and considering Russia can't even manage to successfully invade a country right next to them that was vastly inferior in numbers and equipment and very underprepared, they wouldn't stand a chance against all of Nato,They'll be obliterated almost instantly and they know it, they'll never go there

Whilst it's not currently Nato's fight, if Putin is left to do what he wants to Ukraine, its almost inevitable it becomes Nato's fight eventually when he moves onto his next target after Ukraine, or the one after that.

I disagree with your last paragraph because of two things. One is that Putin clearly underestimated how difficult it would be to invade and take control of Ukraine, and having actually started it he doesn't have to speculate about it, he has real hard evidence and can see for his own eyes what a cluster fuck it is. He's not going to want to walk into another cluster fuck again. And the second point is that Ukraine is not like Sweden etc. Ukraine was actually part of Russia and indeed more so, it was the birthplace of modern Russia. Many Russians have relatives there. Many people in Ukraine are native Russian speakers. Many people in Ukraine - especially in the east or in Crimea actually want to be part of Russia still. So Ukraine is special case. This does not justify Putin's actions, but it does play a part in explaining it. He has no such "justification" with respect to e.g. Sweden.

As to the rest of your post, what you say is logical. But it is not incontrovertible nor impossible to be wrong. No-one in their right mind would launch a nuclear attack on a Nato country. But no-one in their right mind would have started WW2 either and yet we did have a WW2. You cannot gamble hundreds of millions of lives on an assumption or calculations and predictions of what someone else might do or not do. To say that would be reckless, is an understatement of incredible proportions.

So we must employ whatever measures we can to ensure Putin will not want to do this again, and hopefully that he will back down and withdraw his troops. But we cannot escalate this further, because no matter how logical it might be that it would not result in WW3 and nuclear Armageddon, that cannot be ruled out as a possibility.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

China will always follow money and the majority of that comes from the west

Yes, Russia really is small fry trade wise.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

I always thought if you watched a bit of RT, Al Jazeera and Fox then between all the bollocks you could discern the truth (if you have the time)

Al Jezaeera is quite a good watch.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

*raped Berlin

Let's not forget who signed a pact with the Nazis and also invaded Poland in 1939, murdering thousands of Polish Officers. Let's not forget the communist purges that murdered millions under soviet rule. Putin is an utter clown, and this Alvaro Silva fella needs to learn his history.

 

[marco]

well said, Arnie.

must be coming on 80 and still a beast

 

[mosssideblue]

must be coming on 80 and still a beast

75 this year, but yes, still a beast.

 

[west didsblue]

I always thought if you watched a bit of RT, Al Jazeera and Fox then between all the bollocks you could discern the truth (if you have the time)

It would be easier to choose three news channels that have a fairly decent reputation for being truthful. Al Jazeera could be one but I wouldn’t touch the other two with a barge pole as they are news outlets in name only. RT is a Putin propaganda tool and Fox serves the same purpose for Trump.