Russian invasion of Ukraine

[cleavers]

It was on the TV news this morning I’ve not heard it mentioned this afternoon but they did say it missed, our plane was unarmed they did say we were delivering assistance to Ukraine
May be old news Russia letting us know Crimea belongs to them.

Our plane was/is a spy plane, and it is unarmed. The incident seems to have been on Septenber 29th, it flys parralel to the Crimean coast, (and/or the Ukraine and Balurus border occasionally) in long mainly straight lines. It flys regularly there, and you can see it on flight radar when its flying. It flies nearer the coast than any commercial flights.

 

[domalino]

Can see Ukraine settling for a regroup for 3 or 4 months - NATO will re equip them more quickly than Russia can replenish its losses. Ukraine will probably continue the precision targeting of Russian strategic positions and Russia will retaliate with drones aimed at civilian targets. A long cold winter could possible finish what’s left of Russian morale.

This would surprise me because, as poorly equipped as they will be, as badly trained, as low their morale, ~1,000,000 Russians are going to hit the front lines in a few months and that’s a frankly absurd number of troops that will make an impact if they’ve got supplies sorted out because of a 3/4 month regroup.

I think Ukraine will push on with their counterattack and try to finish this war before those soldiers really arrive.

 

[BlueAnorak]

So if Russia blows the dam, yeah it will flood downtown Kherson but generally it's East of the Dnipro (Russian held territory) that gets it. Even Nova Kakhovka gets back flooded by water seeping back up from the dam due to the sheer volume of water that will be released.
Some other Russian occupied towns get it big time: Hola Ptystan, Nova Zubarysta, Stava Zubarista. Chulakiva, etc..

And then after two weeks or so there will be 350 miles of new front up from Nova Kakhovka that the Ukrainians can attack througha... into Occupied Southern Ukraine.

No the Russisns haven't thought this one out too well

Topographical map of the Dnipro basin round Kherson...

Kherson topographic map, elevation, terrain

Visualization and sharing of free topographic maps. Kherson, Херсонська міська громада, Kherson Raion, Kherson Oblast, 73000-73480, Ukraine.

en-ca.topographic-map.com

 

[Kirkstall Blue]

I didn’t get the type of planes other than Russian C ?? but it did sound serious I’m glad it missed though it sounded like a near thing.

 

[west didsblue]

I didn’t get the type of planes other than Russian C ?? but it did sound serious I’m glad it missed though it sounded like a near thing.

It was a Rivet Joint (Boeing RC-135W) which is a spy plane based on the same 1950s prototype airframe as the 707, which replaced the Nimrod R Mk 1 after it went out of service in 2011, although it did not enter service with the RAF until 2017. It is a very high value asset with just 3 in service with the RAF. The loss of one would have a major impact on UK intelligence gathering.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

They use something called IFF (Identification Friend or Foe). One of my jobs in the first gulf war, was setting up firstly mechanical (boxes with the top half alphabet and bottom numbers connected with cables) then digital using a device which was setup using murray code tape which were given out daily to our helicopters…

You worked in ComCen?

 

[Delboy352]

You worked in ComCen?

Nah. Did crypto re supply for Support Helicopters and the Signals that supported them…some funny and not so funny stories from those times…

 

[cleavers]

I didn’t get the type of planes other than Russian C ?? but it did sound serious I’m glad it missed though it sounded like a near thing.

BBC report (the 2 planes in the picture are the russian one)

 

[nmc]

This would surprise me because, as poorly equipped as they will be, as badly trained, as low their morale, ~1,000,000 Russians are going to hit the front lines in a few months and that’s a frankly absurd number of troops that will make an impact if they’ve got supplies sorted out because of a 3/4 month regroup.

I think Ukraine will push on with their counterattack and try to finish this war before those soldiers really arrive.

The million conscripts will likely have one rifle between 5 - I’m not sure Russia has the means to equip a million soldiers in a few months.

 

[domalino]

The million conscripts will likely have one rifle between 5 - I’m not sure Russia has the means to equip a million soldiers in a few months.

Iran, China, India and North Korea have enough rifles to equip those conscripts 100x over.

Arms deals will have happened in the month since Putin mobilised them. Give them another 3/4 months of regrouping and they'll be equipped.

I believe Ukraine will try to finish the counteroffensive and leave the war all but won by Christmas.