Russian invasion of Ukraine

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Do you need to occupy the country though or do you need to occupy Moscow?

It’s an interesting question. My guess (because that’s all it can be) is that occupying Moscow wouldn’t be sufficient.

As far as I understand it the present federal arrangement is based on a combination of largesse and two way Nelsonian blindness that allows regional governers to rule their fiefdoms as long as they toe the Moscow line. I think that arrangement would be pretty fragile when you factor in the huge distances and cultural divergence, along with human lust for power, especially with the prospect of a resurgent Russian military being vanishingly small. Think those regions would feel far more emboldened (and probably already do).

This war will have accelerated the break up of the Russian Federation and made the situation you suggest being feasible less likely imo.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Ukrainian breakthrough at Novoselivs'ke,Luhansk.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[Mon Autre]

I am aware Russia has been invaded on numerous occasions but without any meaningful success by those invading. Their fear isn’t rooted in experience or logic.

It’s a akin to City fans going on about ‘typical City’ fourteen years after a takeover that has delivered six PL titles.

Like I said, it doesn’t bear up to objective scrutiny.

You say without any meaningful success, but the human cost and the economic cost of those invasions was big enough for it to be understandable how it could form part of their national psyche. It's part of their history. The British national psyche doesn't bear up to objective scrutiny either really, because we're selective in what we choose to remember and we decide to frame it.

 

[aguero93:20]

It’s an interesting question. My guess (because that’s all it can be) is that occupying Moscow wouldn’t be sufficient.

As far as I understand it the present federal arrangement is based on a combination of largesse and two way Nelsonian blindness that allows regional governers to rule their fiefdoms as long as they toe the Moscow line. I think that arrangement would be pretty fragile when you factor in the huge distances and cultural divergence, along with human lust for power, especially with the prospect of a resurgent Russian military being vanishingly small. Think those regions would feel far more emboldened (and probably already do).

This war will have accelerated the break up of the Russian Federation and made the situation you suggest being feasible less likely imo.

Imagine the country being invaded though, best way to unify them imo. Nothing makes a nation pull together like an external threat.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

You say without any meaningful success, but the human cost and the economic cost of those invasions was big enough for it to be understandable how it could form part of their national psyche. It's part of their history. The British national psyche doesn't bear up to objective scrutiny either really, because we're selective in what we choose to remember and we decide to frame it.

That’s fair comment - however we were last subject to a meaningful attack on our territory around the same time as the Russians and we aren’t constantly haunted by a fear of invasion, or perhaps more pertinently, a successful one.

It’s not so much that it’s part of their national psyche, but more that it seems to dominate it to an unhealthy extent.

 

[Grassland Blue]

Gianni Infantino has called for a ceasefire in the war (which is admirable) so that diplomatic talks can take place between the 2 countries.
It's a very slim chance that this will happen though, I think.

1.) Putin would see an organised withdrawal of forces as a defeat and loss of face.

2.) His forces being overwhelmed and kicked out of Ukraine would also be seen as a loss of face. (Possibly even moreso.)

3.) Although well meaning, a cessation of hostilities would enable the Russians to re-arm and recuperate, prolonging the war.

The ball is in Zelenskys' possession and he too has a face to save.
He needs to be cautious and be prepared to make a grand conciliatory gesture to end the war.

 

[Semper aggressus]

Gianni Infantino has called for a ceasefire in the war (which is admirable) so that diplomatic talks can take place between the 2 countries.
It's a very slim chance that this will happen though, I think.

1.) Putin would see an organised withdrawal of forces as a defeat and loss of face.

2.) His forces being overwhelmed and kicked out of Ukraine would also be seen as a loss of face. (Possibly even moreso.)

3.) Although well meaning, a cessation of hostilities would enable the Russians to re-arm and recuperate, prolonging the war.

The ball is in Zelenskys' possession and he too has a face to save.
He needs to be cautious and be prepared to make a grand conciliatory gesture to end the war.

Why should the Ukrainians make any conciliatory gesture though? Their land has been invaded and pilfered, destroyed and innocents killed, etc as everyone knows. No-one should then expect them to concede anything.

All they want is their whole country back. Ideally once this disgraceful invasion is over, the UN should be forcing Russia to pay for as much of the clean-up, repatriation and damages as is feasible.

 

[Eebo]

Gianni Infantino has called for a ceasefire in the war (which is admirable) so that diplomatic talks can take place between the 2 countries.
It's a very slim chance that this will happen though, I think.

1.) Putin would see an organised withdrawal of forces as a defeat and loss of face.

2.) His forces being overwhelmed and kicked out of Ukraine would also be seen as a loss of face. (Possibly even moreso.)

3.) Although well meaning, a cessation of hostilities would enable the Russians to re-arm and recuperate, prolonging the war.

The ball is in Zelenskys' possession and he too has a face to save.
He needs to be cautious and be prepared to make a grand conciliatory gesture to end the war.

WTF has the Ukraine war got to do with Gianni Infantino? is it getting in the way of his football or something?

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

WTF has the Ukraine war got to do with Gianni Infantino?

It’s a childish comment.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

It’s incredible that the nation on earth (that has significant resources and population) which is the hardest to invade and conquer (that has proven repeatedly to be so) has such a paranoid national fear of that (almost impossible) event happening. And yet their national psyche is defined by it.

One of my best friends is married to a Russian and he has frequently talked for some considerable time (from well before this war) of the Russian people’s innate fear of NATO expansion representing an existential threat to their nation, which this conflict has underlined is a truly preposterous notion. The idea that any military force could invade and conquer a country that size through the prism of modern warfare is simply absurd, and yet domestic support for Putin’s aggression in Ukraine is rooted in that notion.

I’ve tried to distance my thoughts from those of negativity towards Russian people since this February, but I confess it’s become increasingly challenging. I have found the juxtaposition of their paranoia and cynicism towards the West with their ostensible gullibility towards their own establishment, along with their general lugubrious disposition as a people to be increasingly unattractive to me.

And against all that, I agree, there are people within our society who have (and continue to) revere them as a society. This isn’t limited to left-wingers either. I know of right-wing people who admire their authoritarian society and truculence. I always found that a bit weird tbh.

There are lots of reasons to celebrate the way this conflict has turned, and among those which encompass the defence of freedom and stability on our continent, and the more unified approach of NATO nations to help achieve that, is the wake up call this will have provided to this vain, truculent and paranoid nation that has threatened the use of nuclear weapons in order to cause fear amongst ordinary people about the safety of their children.

I, for one, will always struggle to look past this invasion of Ukraine, and the Russian narrative that has surrounded it, and the people in whose name those deeds and words were carried out. And if I, someone who likes to think of themselves as balanced and fairly moderate in his outlook on the world feels like that, then I expect it’s going to be a long, slow road back to redemption for the Russian people.

It fills my heart with joy that they are getting such a fucking kicking, and although it is truly tragic that it has come at such a cost, the alternative would have been such a terrible thing to witness.

Russia is a country that has never faced up to its shitty past. They have a very very warped view of world history.

Why should the Ukrainians make any conciliatory gesture though? Their land has been invaded and pilfered, destroyed and innocents killed, etc as everyone knows. No-one should then expect them to concede anything.

All they want is their whole country back. Ideally once this disgraceful invasion is over, the UN should be forcing Russia to pay for as much of the clean-up, repatriation and damages as is feasible.

Agree - Russia is facing prolonged and steady defeat. They need a way out but all options look like defeat for Putin. He has no good options and I don't expect him to make any decisions based on the best interests of anyone but himself. Long drawn out stalemate seems like all he can do when withdrawal would be better for literally everyone else.

So why would Ukraine offer him anything. At best I see them offering a cease fire to withdraw. But then what about Crimea? And what about Russia paying for the cost of the clean up.