Russian invasion of Ukraine

The point I was trying, and obviously comprehensively failing to make was that unless you invade Russia, at some point, you have to negotiate. However unpalatable.
You weren’t failing to make it, it’s just that I don’t necessarily agree with you, at least not in a sense that would involve meaningful negotiations. I guess if the Treaty of Versailles was a negotiation, then I’ll agree with you (although that doesn’t mean I’m advocating for reprisals and isolation being imposed on Russia).

Not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but I would say your confidence that it was inevitable was misplaced.
 
The point I was trying, and obviously comprehensively failing to make was that unless you invade Russia, at some point, you have to negotiate. However unpalatable.
Russia has nothing to negotiate with. They are sending their people to their deaths, the West will continue to supply Ukraine, the borders will be secured.

Russia needs to negotiate in order to rejoin the international world community, or forever remain a pariah on the world stage, isolated from everything from world sports, international events, co-operation and aid.
 
You weren’t failing to make it, it’s just that I don’t necessarily agree with you, at least not in a sense that would involve meaningful negotiations. I guess if the Treaty of Versailles was a negotiation, then I’ll agree with you (although that doesn’t mean I’m advocating for reprisals and isolation being imposed on Russia).

Not saying you’re necessarily wrong, but I would say your confidence that it was inevitable was misplaced.

The treaty of Versailles was a surrender. Russia will not surrender, because nobody is threatening them.

But I think we basically agree tbh.
 
Russia can be pushed back to where it was in 2013 without any negotiation. No-one is sensibly talking about invading Russia so not sure why you’ve raised that.

Sevastopol is the massive elephant in the room for me.

You're not going back to pre-2013 unless Russia's black sea fleet is in Sevastopol, and you can't have a fleet that's fired hundreds of cruise missiles at Ukraine sitting at dock in Ukrainian territory.

Russia won't give it up easily, and you can say "tough shit" but I'm not sure that's a long term option. There's also half a million Russians that have lived there for 250 years.

Hopefully the Russians scupper the fleet or Ukrainian special forces do, because it's a much simpler equation if there's no Black Sea Fleet.
 

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