Russian invasion of Ukraine

[domalino]

Hungary‘s membership of the EU must Be called into question… they are sitting in one camp but backing the other.

Nah, this is an "inside the tent pissing out" vs "outside the tent pissing in" situation. Eject them and they just form another bloc with Russia and Belarus and deal with India and China instead.

Also while this is about as extreme an example as possible (other than war between 2 EU states) it's important to have ways in which countries can disagree or have completely different policies without being ejected from the Union.

Hungary is getting overruled at every turn and they're getting their EU funding sanctioned - that's enough.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

half a million Russians that have lived there for 250 years

What's their secret?

Mediterranean diet?

 

[domalino]

What's their secret?

Mediterranean diet?

Radioactive fish from the nuclear subs.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Sevastopol is the massive elephant in the room for me.

You're not going back to pre-2013 unless Russia's black sea fleet is in Sevastopol, and you can't have a fleet that's fired hundreds of cruise missiles at Ukraine sitting at dock in Ukrainian territory.

Russia won't give it up easily, and you can say "tough shit" but I'm not sure that's a long term option. There's also half a million Russians that have lived there for 250 years.

Hopefully the Russians scupper the fleet or Ukrainian special forces do, because it's a much simpler equation if there's no Black Sea Fleet.

I think tbf, I’ve oversimplified things a little by including Crimea in the equation. One of my best mates, who is married to a Russian, lived in the Crimea and I am aware that pro-Russian sentiments are pretty well entrenched amongst a decent proportion of the population.

Plus the naval situation complicates things further, but my point still broadly remains. What’s the point in substantively negotiating with a nation that doesn’t stick to what it purportedly agrees? It’s a complete waste of time. The only language they understand and respect, is force.

 

[KS55]

Read somewhere the other day that for russia to rebuild Ukraine as it was ....... $60 billion, as for lives, some sources are saying 1 for 1 ratio, other sources are say 1 for 7 ( russians )

600 billion euros.

 

[KS55]

I think tbf, I’ve oversimplified things a little by including Crimea in the equation. One of my best mates, who is married to a Russian, lived in the Ukraine and I am aware that pro-Russian sentiments are pretty well entrenched amongst a decent proportion of the population.

Plus the naval situation complicates things further, but my point still broadly remains. What’s the point in substantively negotiating with a nation that doesn’t stick to what it purportedly agrees? It’s a complete waste of time. The only language they understand and respect, is force.

There will have to be an international enforcement mechanism. Stuff like de-militarised zones, UN inspections and so on.

 

[KS55]

Nah, this is an "inside the tent pissing out" vs "outside the tent pissing in" situation. Eject them and they just form another bloc with Russia and Belarus and deal with India and China instead.

Also while this is about as extreme an example as possible (other than war between 2 EU states) it's important to have ways in which countries can disagree or have completely different policies without being ejected from the Union.

Hungary is getting overruled at every turn and they're getting their EU funding sanctioned - that's enough.

The EU suspended Austria a few years ago due to racist policies. Maybe that will happen again.
Generally speaking, the EU is not sanguine about any country breaking core policies. They are not inclined to give countries wiggle room to accommodate differences in policy. See e.g. N.I. protocol.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

The EU suspended Austria a few years ago due to racist policies. Maybe that will happen again.
Generally speaking, the EU is not sanguine about any country breaking core policies. They are not inclined to give countries wiggle room to accommodate differences in policy. See e.g. N.I. protocol.

Are you sure that the EU suspended Austria? I had a quick search online and couldn’t find a record of it? We spent a lot of our time in the EU blocking policy initiatives favoured by the majority of Member States and were never close to suspension. Many Countries have been subject to infraction proceedings (investigation and fines) for not implementing EU agreements but haven’t come close to suspension.

 

[KS55]

Are you sure that the EU suspended Austria? I had a quick search online and couldn’t find a record of it? We spent a lot of our time in the EU blocking policy initiatives favoured by the majority of Member States and were never close to suspension. Many Countries have been subject to infraction proceedings (investigation and fines) for not implementing EU agreements but haven’t come close to suspension.

I was using shorthand for a complex situation.
What happened, in short, was:
1. A suspension of Austria under Article 7 was proposed.
2. Several countries felt that the use of Article 7 was a sledgehammer to crack a nut.
3. A process was begun to amend Article 7. There is now an obligatory three stage process leading eventually to suspension.
4. Meanwhile, all EU countries suspended bi lateral diplomatic relations with Austria in place of formal EU suspension, but threatening suspension once Article 7 had been amended.
5. The right wing party in Austria lost support in their next round of elections and the new gov rowed back from the original policy.
6. Diplomatic relations restored.

 

[KS55]

@Tim of the Oak you will find an article (summary) called Fourteen against One if you look at Wiki/Freedom Party of Austria/Further reading (in the reference section). Sorry, my tablet is refusing to post links!!