I wonder if the threat of Ukraine potentially having access to Tomahawks is bringing the nonce in the Kremlin to the table. If they have a system like that to go after Russia’s oil refineries even more destructive than they have done previously, Russia as a country will be fucked. The military will grind to a stop in Ukraine first of all, then we have the civilian population back home up in arms when they can’t drive their cars or use oil for heating when the winter kicks in.
There must be something going on in the background in Russia with their economy on the brink for Trump to change direction from where the situation was carving Ukraine up between the US and Russia for mineral production a few months back to now potentially giving them a system that could enable Ukraine to inflict damage deep inside Russia more efficiently and devastatingly than they have done before.
Trump is transactional, if he can get a bigger piece of the pie on minerals by Ukraine giving Russia a bloody nose with cruise missiles. It probably means there is less he has to give to Putin and more for him to keep for himself.