Russian invasion of Ukraine

Fair comment, however it seems likely that Putin was emboldened to some extent by having what he thought was a compromised PM in the UK. His miscalculation was that most people in the UK didn’t care about Johnson’s shenanigans so he had no hold on him.

Maybe. I think it was more likely he saw how the bots could manipulate public opinion as a way of winning the PR war on Ukraine, not just here in UK but the same playbook had been used elsewhere. Coupled with Russian money in UK/EU and EU reliance on Russian oil/gas he thought we’d not dare do much more than offer objections. Johnson, Macron, and the rest the cherry on the cake, the extra insurance. He was almost right.
 
His perfect time to invade would have been end of 2019, wonder if covid stopped him from doing it. Would have had Trump and Johnson.
Yes, it’s very clear that support from a Trump led US would have been far less than what actually happened so it may well be that Covid played its part in a delay. The other alternative was that Putin was banking on a Trump win and a subsequent withdrawal from NATO which would have weakened the western response immeasurably. Either way Putin miscalculated hugely.
 
Maybe. I think it was more likely he saw how the bots could manipulate public opinion as a way of winning the PR war on Ukraine, not just here in UK but the same playbook had been used elsewhere. Coupled with Russian money in UK/EU and EU reliance on Russian oil/gas he thought we’d not dare do much more than offer objections. Johnson, Macron, and the rest the cherry on the cake, the extra insurance. He was almost right.
I think it all adds to the mix. His successes in the propaganda wars and the relative inaction over Crimea, the Donbas, MH17 and Salisbury emboldened him and his influence over Trump and the GOP, and his perceived influence over Johnson were also significant.
 
All Russian Armour is Obsolete along side the challengers a lot depends on how quickly crews can be trained to get the best out of them. They decimated Russian made AFVs in the gulf.
The T90s are pretty good. Except for storing Ammo inside the turret of course.
 
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Invade Poland, invade NATO. Ain't going to happen

If Putin successfully invaded and annexed Ukraine his next target would not be a NATO member, it would be a country like Georgia.

Georgia is a close ally of NATO and has been promised future membership but isn’t protected.

Invading them would cause even more internal conflict in NATO.
 
You’d think the German arms industry would be putting a lot of pressure on Schulz, this fiasco is going to do them so much damage.

Korea, Israel and Turkey all have booming arms industries that provide alternative options for countries who want to…you know…use the things they spend billions on without Germany spending a year deciding if it’s ok or not.
 
Maybe. I think it was more likely he saw how the bots could manipulate public opinion as a way of winning the PR war on Ukraine, not just here in UK but the same playbook had been used elsewhere. Coupled with Russian money in UK/EU and EU reliance on Russian oil/gas he thought we’d not dare do much more than offer objections. Johnson, Macron, and the rest the cherry on the cake, the extra insurance. He was almost right.
I watched Rise of the Nazis over the Christmas break, which was filmed well before last February, and near the beginning of the first episode one of the historian talking heads said that, without fail, dictators eventually end up completely surrounded by acolytes and yes men, none of whom dare challenge the thoughts and ideals of their leader. And it is this that leads to their eventual downfall. Without fail.

It really struck a cord with me. Putin would not have had anyone telling him that he was taking a huge risk in invading Ukraine. Whilst the west had hitherto been far too effete and supine in dealing with Putin, the response from NATO nations to this invasion was actually foreseeable to anyone stepping back and applying logic.

Just because someone doesn’t retaliate when you hit them five times, doesn’t mean they won’t if you hit them again. Especially if the sixth time is harder than what preceded it.

He has overplayed his hand and completely fucking blown it. His country’s standing has been reduced to an overwhelming extent and its people will be ostracised for decades as a consequence.
 
You are aware that the US has sent more military aid than any other country...... by a long way
Not in terms of GDP%. UK deliveries are virtually identical with the US on a GDP% basis. Estonia is and Latvia are top of the pile, then Poland then the US and UK.
 
Yes probably a poor choice of wording, think he was referring more to the supply of Abrams which are at least the equal of the Challenger 2s and much more plentiful, these MBTs could well eject the Russians from Ukraine. Or at the very least put the shits right up the Russian military.
Totally impractical for Ukrainian Logistics and Maintenance. It has a Gas Turbine jet engine power plant and burns 5 US gallons to move 1 mile.
 

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