Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LGWIO]

Is @SPIDERBOY ok, not seen him post for a day or so?

Either @oscbarcelona has found out where he lives and gone round there ...or @therealzelensky has ordered him into radio silence....
Or maybe he was just out on a bender celebrating Brightons win?

 

[metalblue]

If this lofty ambition to capture all of Ukraine is correct then I do wonder how the russian strategy will differ from last Feb when they had at their disposal significantly more military hardware, their best fighting batallians and an element of surprise they could leverage on (assumption being someone high up actually had a military plan).

Are they hoping that the Ukrainians will just run out of bullets, missiles and artillery munitions to fire at the new inexperienced Mobiks?

It beggars belief mate. When the Russians had high morale and equipment that was in plentiful supply and working against a Ukrainian army that had heart but let’s be honest little else in the way of equipment to match the Russians they got their arses handed to them. Now they are up against a far more mobilised, motivated and equipped Ukrainian army it won’t suddenly be any easier. The Russians are learning by all accounts but I can’t see them breaking the Ukrainian lines to a point it fundamentally changes the outcome of this war, the Ukrainians on the other hand I think will be able to. The Russian army simply isn’t mobile enough and any build up of force will be plainly obvious to the west who will tell the Ukrainians.

Unfortunately a lot of people are dying to one man’s pride.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

French defence minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said the two countries had agreed to cooperate to make “several thousands” of 155-millimetre shells to help Ukraine, which he hoped could start being delivered in the first quarter of this year.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Russia never tells the truth and Boris lies when it suits.
The fact that Boris is now irrelevant politically, yet Russia has gone overboard on this leads to the first option being the most likely probability.

Most likely by far is that both are lying.

 

[jrb]

Some good updates on CNN. Always worth a daily read.

Bakhmut has been "a living hell" as paratroopers replace Wagner fighters, Ukrainian commander says

The "constant" fighting in and around the eastern Ukraine city of Bakhmut has been "a living hell" as Russian forces try to take control of the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway, a Ukrainian commander said in an interview on Ukrainian television Monday.

"Because for five or six months, near Bakhmut has been a living hell. The enemy is constantly attacking. And we can observe more about how the weather is changing, which, by the way, has a great impact on the combat capability, morale, and living conditions of each soldier," said Volodymyr Nazarenko, deputy commander of the "Svoboda" battalion of the 4th Rapid Reaction Brigade of Ukraine's National Guard.

He said he couldn't say for certain whether Russian forces are making a full-scale offensive and whether their tactics have changed, but that it seems Wagner fighters have now been replaced by Russian paratroopers.

Nazarenko went on to say the Ukrainian fighters "are doing an incredible job" and are "real heroes."

"The enemy is trying to take control of the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway. They are not successful in it. Our fighters are doing their best: The Armed Forces and the National Guard are doing an incredible job; they are real heroes. And the enemy is suffering huge, huge losses," he said.

CNN has not been able to independently verify the claims about the losses.

"What we see is that Wagner is almost completely destroyed. They have now been replaced by paratroopers, who also suffer losses almost every day, not only in manpower but also in armored vehicles," he added.

——-

Warning of Russia’s continued attempts to encircle Bakhmut, a local Ukrainian commander has said that any possible Ukrainian withdrawal from the embattled eastern city would be done with the sole aim of saving Ukrainian military lives.

“If our command decides to withdraw from Bakhmut, that would be with the only purpose of saving lives of our servicemen,” said Denys Yaroslavskyi, who commands a unit currently in Bakhmut.

Yaroslavskyi also warned that “super qualified” regular Russian military troops are now assisting Wagner private military contractors in assaulting the towns surrounding Bakhmut. That was echoed by another local Ukrainian commander, Volodymyr Nazarenko, who said that Russian paratroopers were taking part in the Bakhmut fight.

“They are just coming forward, they do not take cover, they are coming all-out,” Yaroslavskyi said on national television on Monday.

More on Moscow's eastern offensive: Russian forces have been making slow but steady gains both north and south of Bakhmut. The last remaining routes under Ukrainian control into the city have come under heavier Russian fire in the past week, according to Ukrainian officials and commanders.

He said that the road north of Bakhmut, towards, the town of Krasna Hora, is almost entirely under Russian control. The Wagner group on Sunday claimed to have taken control of the town of Blahodatne, further north along that road.

“It is way too dangerous for volunteers to enter the city now,” Yaroslavskyi said. “There are locals who remain there but they live in the basements now. Everyone who wanted to leave the city has already left. There is no electricity, no water supply, no sewage or gas, no connection, no nothing. There won’t be a single surviving building in Bakhmut.”

 

[jrb]

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine

Fighting is fierce in eastern Ukraine, where towns face constant Russian bombardment and troops battle Wagner mercenaries near the city of Bakhmut. Follow here for the latest updates.

edition.cnn.com

 

[jrb]

Tanks running out of ammunition/shells.

Video report from a Ukrainian tank unit.

 

[cleavers]

If this lofty ambition to capture all of Ukraine is correct then I do wonder how the russian strategy will differ from last Feb when they had at their disposal significantly more military hardware, their best fighting batallians and an element of surprise they could leverage on (assumption being someone high up actually had a military plan).

Are they hoping that the Ukrainians will just run out of bullets, missiles and artillery munitions to fire at the new inexperienced Mobiks?

I think it's likely that this is NATO 'propganda', hoping to get governments to offer more support to Ukraine than is currently being offered.

It's hard too see that any "new offensive" would be any more effective than last February's was, and in the intial stages it was quite effective, and they got a long way to start with. They will need a new strategy for me, and that could be very unpalatable.

However they'll quickly run into exactly the same issues with supply lines, and with fewer ways to supply them, as I doubt many of the train lines out of russia into unoccupied areas of Ukraine are currently intact, and even some of those into (or through) occupied areas have been damaged.

If they do the long road conveys again, they'll just be bigger sitting ducks than they were by March.

 

[west didsblue]

TBF for all his wrongs he can hold his head high on Ukraine.

There’s more than a good chance that his showboating about Ukraine was primarily as a distraction to his numerous scandals at home. With most people I’d be prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt. In Johnson’s case there’s little doubt that it was all about him, although if the end result was that Ukraine received the backing they need it doesn’t really matter. It’s difficult to give credit to Johnson though with his track record on everything else.

 

[CTID1977]