Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Nethermoor]

There were dozens of attempts on Hitlers life. I'm just waiting for the headline "Putin taken ill"

In the end the allies gave up on trying to get Hitler as he was doing more damage alive.

 

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Maybe a little cop on is required when asking people in politically sensitive environments to provide opinion on a public forum

 

[dickie davies]

I can't tell you what's going on inside the government or what may happen to the economy in the coming months, though I suspect difficulties may lie ahead. At the moment, while the rise in the cost of living is noticeable to me as I go about my day-to-day life, it's not catastrophic. My impression is that things are probably worse in the UK in this regard. For now, at least.

Is that what you were asking? I'm writing rather in haste and if I've misunderstood, I'm sorry - I'll try to respond again in that event.

A couple of extra points, while I'm here, just based on things that . Please note that in the below, I'm just trying to outline how the Russian Government actually views things. Don't @ me, as they say. I'm telling you how they think and not how I do. There are sound reasons why I don't want to get into discussions about my own views of this.

First is that, every working day, I'm involved in producing a short newsletter in English for clients summarising the latest legal developments in Russia. The fact that it's still going out daily more than a year on should tell you something. The Government here is gearing up for a long military campaign, and the kind of measures it's taking make clear that it's focused on the strategy of pursuing an attritional war, even at the cost considerable loss of life to his own military forces and damage to his country's economy, waiting for the west to get tired of supporting Ukraine.

Second, the reason Putin began this war is that he believes that other countries should respect that, while its own boundaries have shrunk, territory that used to be the Russian Empire is in his view Russia's sphere of influence. In other words, he won't accept foreign interference to take them away into the orbit of the west. And he regards western assistance to Ukraine in attempting to achieve that goal as an attack by the west on Russia's fundamental national interests, which in his view makes this an existential struggle for Russia.

Sometimes people don't seem to get his thought processes at all. However, that's what I think they are, if anybody's interested.

In terms of the population rising up against him, there are a number of things to remember. One is that the war as presented to people here is very definitely not the war you see. Another is that opinion polls here are notoriously unreliable (I saw an excellent Twitter thread about that yesterday). And a further point is that people are a lot less likely to express dissent when doing so is subject to strong criminal penalties.

But I also think it's important to note the circumstances in which he came to power. Russia was just over a year on from a complete economic collapse after a decade in which many people experienced quite shocking poverty and all but a fairly small number suffered really badly. Economic reforms enacted by politicians following western advice saw the state coffers looted by an unscrupulous bunch of crooks while most people saw their savings crash.

I knew people who literally (and I mean literally) quite reasonably thought they'd saved enough for a 30-year retirement and ended up being able to buy a new telly. At the end of the decade, the rouble was worth just over 1% of what it had been at the start. And the West really didn't cover itself in glory, providing emergency IMF loans solely on condition that the disastrous reforms continued and the madness carried on.

That's a bit of a back-of-a-fag-packet analysis and I'm not really interested in debating it further, but it was certainly how a lot of people here at the time saw things and I have quite a fair degree of sympathy for them. After Putin came to power, the 2000s in relative terms represented a return to stability and even prosperity. That was why he became so popular, and it explains a lot of people's attitudes towards him.

Pretty well everyone I know here thinks that the war is a bad thing and they'd desperately love it to be over. However, a large contingent are inclined to trust Putin and to believe that Russia should end the war when he says. I don't think you can understand this position without the above background - even if you decide it's ultimately bollocks.

Thanks for taking the time to reply
Two further questions
Are there any shortages of basic foodstuffs and is there any concern over government workers not being paid, or is that a made up story from our side?

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I can't tell you what's going on inside the government or what may happen to the economy in the coming months, though I suspect difficulties may lie ahead. At the moment, while the rise in the cost of living is noticeable to me as I go about my day-to-day life, it's not catastrophic. My impression is that things are probably worse in the UK in this regard. For now, at least.

Is that what you were asking? I'm writing rather in haste and if I've misunderstood, I'm sorry - I'll try to respond again in that event.

A couple of extra points, while I'm here, just based on things that . Please note that in the below, I'm just trying to outline how the Russian Government actually views things. Don't @ me, as they say. I'm telling you how they think and not how I do. There are sound reasons why I don't want to get into discussions about my own views of this.

First is that, every working day, I'm involved in producing a short newsletter in English for clients summarising the latest legal developments in Russia. The fact that it's still going out daily more than a year on should tell you something. The Government here is gearing up for a long military campaign, and the kind of measures it's taking make clear that it's focused on the strategy of pursuing an attritional war, even at the cost considerable loss of life to his own military forces and damage to his country's economy, waiting for the west to get tired of supporting Ukraine.

Second, the reason Putin began this war is that he believes that other countries should respect that, while its own boundaries have shrunk, territory that used to be the Russian Empire is in his view Russia's sphere of influence. In other words, he won't accept foreign interference to take them away into the orbit of the west. And he regards western assistance to Ukraine in attempting to achieve that goal as an attack by the west on Russia's fundamental national interests, which in his view makes this an existential struggle for Russia.

Sometimes people don't seem to get his thought processes at all. However, that's what I think they are, if anybody's interested.

In terms of the population rising up against him, there are a number of things to remember. One is that the war as presented to people here is very definitely not the war you see. Another is that opinion polls here are notoriously unreliable (I saw an excellent Twitter thread about that yesterday). And a further point is that people are a lot less likely to express dissent when doing so is subject to strong criminal penalties.

But I also think it's important to note the circumstances in which he came to power. Russia was just over a year on from a complete economic collapse after a decade in which many people experienced quite shocking poverty and all but a fairly small number suffered really badly. Economic reforms enacted by politicians following western advice saw the state coffers looted by an unscrupulous bunch of crooks while most people saw their savings crash.

I knew people who literally (and I mean literally) quite reasonably thought they'd saved enough for a 30-year retirement and ended up being able to buy a new telly. At the end of the decade, the rouble was worth just over 1% of what it had been at the start. And the West really didn't cover itself in glory, providing emergency IMF loans solely on condition that the disastrous reforms continued and the madness carried on.

That's a bit of a back-of-a-fag-packet analysis and I'm not really interested in debating it further, but it was certainly how a lot of people here at the time saw things and I have quite a fair degree of sympathy for them. After Putin came to power, the 2000s in relative terms represented a return to stability and even prosperity. That was why he became so popular, and it explains a lot of people's attitudes towards him.

Pretty well everyone I know here thinks that the war is a bad thing and they'd desperately love it to be over. However, a large contingent are inclined to trust Putin and to believe that Russia should end the war when he says. I don't think you can understand this position without the above background - even if you decide it's ultimately bollocks.

Very insightful post from someone actually on the ground that can give objective opinions from both sides. Totally agree with the reasons why putin started this war, the idea of a functioning and prosperous Ukraine on his doorstep must be abhorrent to him and would lead to inevitable questions from russian citizens due to the strong connections between the two countries.

Agree also that the whole IMF and American led rehabilitation packages after the fall of the Berlin wall were far too rigid (Troika like on Greece) and we missed an opportunity to try and win some hearts and minds then but there was always going to be a risk with russia and its history. Other Warsaw pact countries were given far more fiscal and structural support needed for the transition to a democracy than russia ever were which led to power vacuums and the rise of the oligarch and the disintegration of russian society, but I suspect that was more the Americans keeping their foot on the russian throats after winning the cold war.

Either way none of that excuses the actions putin has embarked upon in my opinion since coming to power, as ultimately he has run the country for the benefit of the very few instead of the masses which is a shame with all the natural resources they have, the citizens of russia should have a far higher standard of living than the vast majority do have.

Stay safe...

 

[petrusha]

Thanks for taking the time to reply
Two further questions
Are there any shortages of basic foodstuffs and is there any concern over government workers not being paid, or is that a made up story from our side?

There's no shortage of basic foodstuffs where I am, but I live in one of two cities in the country that are far richer than anywhere else so they might be better placed to ride this kind of thing out than people in some other places.

I haven't heard stories of government officials not being paid, but that doesn't mean there aren't any. I'd be surprised if the central government doesn't pay its people, but there may be regions and municipalities that don't have the resources to do so in the current climate.

Of course, part of the issue is that, watching state TV here (which I don't do very much), I won't see reports on the above even if they are happening. Not a very informative answer, I'm afraid, but the best I can do!

 

[CTID1977]

russia's not happy ;)

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

That suggests that Putin’s wheezes are not succeeding, locals not trusting the rouble. It is practicalities like this that will bring him down. I see they failed to pay government workers this month. Other shortages will reach the cities soon, already widespread in the stix.

#smalltimecunts

 

[Blue.Roys.Son]

There's no shortage of basic foodstuffs where I am, but I live in one of two cities in the country that are far richer than anywhere else so they might be better placed to ride this kind of thing out than people in some other places.

I haven't heard stories of government officials not being paid, but that doesn't mean there aren't any. I'd be surprised if the central government doesn't pay its people, but there may be regions and municipalities that don't have the resources to do so in the current climate.

Of course, part of the issue is that, watching state TV here (which I don't do very much), I won't see reports on the above even if they are happening. Not a very informative answer, I'm afraid, but the best I can do!

Whilst I wish you and your family all the best I'm hugely disappointed to hear that things aren't starting to hurt in Russia after a year of this evil war.

Every day that the Russians remain comfortable is another day that many Ukramians die needlessly.

I'm currently in Thailand and there is thousands of Russians over here spending like nothing has ever happened.

Really thought it would have hurt them by now.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I can't tell you what's going on inside the government or what may happen to the economy in the coming months, though I suspect difficulties may lie ahead. At the moment, while the rise in the cost of living is noticeable to me as I go about my day-to-day life, it's not catastrophic. My impression is that things are probably worse in the UK in this regard. For now, at least.

Is that what you were asking? I'm writing rather in haste and if I've misunderstood, I'm sorry - I'll try to respond again in that event.

A couple of extra points, while I'm here, just based on things that . Please note that in the below, I'm just trying to outline how the Russian Government actually views things. Don't @ me, as they say. I'm telling you how they think and not how I do. There are sound reasons why I don't want to get into discussions about my own views of this.

First is that, every working day, I'm involved in producing a short newsletter in English for clients summarising the latest legal developments in Russia. The fact that it's still going out daily more than a year on should tell you something. The Government here is gearing up for a long military campaign, and the kind of measures it's taking make clear that it's focused on the strategy of pursuing an attritional war, even at the cost considerable loss of life to his own military forces and damage to his country's economy, waiting for the west to get tired of supporting Ukraine.

Second, the reason Putin began this war is that he believes that other countries should respect that, while its own boundaries have shrunk, territory that used to be the Russian Empire is in his view Russia's sphere of influence. In other words, he won't accept foreign interference to take them away into the orbit of the west. And he regards western assistance to Ukraine in attempting to achieve that goal as an attack by the west on Russia's fundamental national interests, which in his view makes this an existential struggle for Russia.

Sometimes people don't seem to get his thought processes at all. However, that's what I think they are, if anybody's interested.

In terms of the population rising up against him, there are a number of things to remember. One is that the war as presented to people here is very definitely not the war you see. Another is that opinion polls here are notoriously unreliable (I saw an excellent Twitter thread about that yesterday). And a further point is that people are a lot less likely to express dissent when doing so is subject to strong criminal penalties.

But I also think it's important to note the circumstances in which he came to power. Russia was just over a year on from a complete economic collapse after a decade in which many people experienced quite shocking poverty and all but a fairly small number suffered really badly. Economic reforms enacted by politicians following western advice saw the state coffers looted by an unscrupulous bunch of crooks while most people saw their savings crash.

I knew people who literally (and I mean literally) quite reasonably thought they'd saved enough for a 30-year retirement and ended up being able to buy a new telly. At the end of the decade, the rouble was worth just over 1% of what it had been at the start. And the West really didn't cover itself in glory, providing emergency IMF loans solely on condition that the disastrous reforms continued and the madness carried on.

That's a bit of a back-of-a-fag-packet analysis and I'm not really interested in debating it further, but it was certainly how a lot of people here at the time saw things and I have quite a fair degree of sympathy for them. After Putin came to power, the 2000s in relative terms represented a return to stability and even prosperity. That was why he became so popular, and it explains a lot of people's attitudes towards him.

Pretty well everyone I know here thinks that the war is a bad thing and they'd desperately love it to be over. However, a large contingent are inclined to trust Putin and to believe that Russia should end the war when he says. I don't think you can understand this position without the above background - even if you decide it's ultimately bollocks.

Thank you.

I hope the "all Russians are cunts" crowd on here listen to you.

 

[Tuearts right boot]

There were dozens of attempts on Hitlers life. I'm just waiting for the headline "Putin taken ill"

He's not going to fall for the old ' meeting on the 6th floor ' trick is he