Russian invasion of Ukraine

When I went to St Petersburg (twice) the locals wanted payment in dollars, did not want their own currency at all.
That suggests that Putin’s wheezes are not succeeding, locals not trusting the rouble. It is practicalities like this that will bring him down. I see they failed to pay government workers this month. Other shortages will reach the cities soon, already widespread in the stix.
 
Russian base destroyed,Kurdyumivka,about 12km Southwest of Bakhmut.
Ammo warehouse destroyed at Nyzhni,Kherson Region,about 35km South of Enerhodar.
Ukrainian forces have advanced towards Zaitseve,Donetsk Region,in between Horlivka and Bakhmut...not quite at Zaitseve yet.
Building up troops and equipment in this area.
Looks like they are preparing for summat,but thats me guessing.

Slava Ukraini.
 
That suggests that Putin’s wheezes are not succeeding, locals not trusting the rouble. It is practicalities like this that will bring him down. I see they failed to pay government workers this month. Other shortages will reach the cities soon, already widespread in the stix.

Take away money you can earn by having a job in Russia and give their population the only choice to join the army or the Wagner group to get paid a wage. Not being able to pay civilians pushes more people towards being used as target practice by the Ukraine army to use up their ammo. Dark times in Russia where the population is expendable and no value placed on life.
 
Take away money you can earn by having a job in Russia and give their population the only choice to join the army or the Wagner group to get paid a wage. Not being able to pay civilians pushes more people towards being used as target practice by the Ukraine army to use up their ammo. Dark times in Russia where the population is expendable and no value placed on life.
True but despetation also pushes the people who will ultimately try to take him out.

There will be many people willing to take a shot at him, the number will only grow as things deteriorate. People closer and closer to him accepting they would be better of if he was dead. More being open about it and willing to take the risk. Like a wall closing in around him.
 
True but despetation also pushes the people who will ultimately try to take him out.

There will be many people willing to take a shot at him, the number will only grow as things deteriorate. People closer and closer to him accepting they would be better of if he was dead. More being open about it and willing to take the risk. Like a wall closing in around him.
There were dozens of attempts on Hitlers life. I'm just waiting for the headline "Putin taken ill"
 
Calling @petrusha to the thread
Can you update us on what's truly happening?

I can't tell you what's going on inside the government or what may happen to the economy in the coming months, though I suspect difficulties may lie ahead. At the moment, while the rise in the cost of living is noticeable to me as I go about my day-to-day life, it's not catastrophic. My impression is that things are probably worse in the UK in this regard. For now, at least.

Is that what you were asking? I'm writing rather in haste and if I've misunderstood, I'm sorry - I'll try to respond again in that event.

A couple of extra points, while I'm here, just based on things that . Please note that in the below, I'm just trying to outline how the Russian Government actually views things. Don't @ me, as they say. I'm telling you how they think and not how I do. There are sound reasons why I don't want to get into discussions about my own views of this.

First is that, every working day, I'm involved in producing a short newsletter in English for clients summarising the latest legal developments in Russia. The fact that it's still going out daily more than a year on should tell you something. The Government here is gearing up for a long military campaign, and the kind of measures it's taking make clear that it's focused on the strategy of pursuing an attritional war, even at the cost considerable loss of life to his own military forces and damage to his country's economy, waiting for the west to get tired of supporting Ukraine.

Second, the reason Putin began this war is that he believes that other countries should respect that, while its own boundaries have shrunk, territory that used to be the Russian Empire is in his view Russia's sphere of influence. In other words, he won't accept foreign interference to take them away into the orbit of the west. And he regards western assistance to Ukraine in attempting to achieve that goal as an attack by the west on Russia's fundamental national interests, which in his view makes this an existential struggle for Russia.

Sometimes people don't seem to get his thought processes at all. However, that's what I think they are, if anybody's interested.

In terms of the population rising up against him, there are a number of things to remember. One is that the war as presented to people here is very definitely not the war you see. Another is that opinion polls here are notoriously unreliable (I saw an excellent Twitter thread about that yesterday). And a further point is that people are a lot less likely to express dissent when doing so is subject to strong criminal penalties.

But I also think it's important to note the circumstances in which he came to power. Russia was just over a year on from a complete economic collapse after a decade in which many people experienced quite shocking poverty and all but a fairly small number suffered really badly. Economic reforms enacted by politicians following western advice saw the state coffers looted by an unscrupulous bunch of crooks while most people saw their savings crash.

I knew people who literally (and I mean literally) quite reasonably thought they'd saved enough for a 30-year retirement and ended up being able to buy a new telly. At the end of the decade, the rouble was worth just over 1% of what it had been at the start. And the West really didn't cover itself in glory, providing emergency IMF loans solely on condition that the disastrous reforms continued and the madness carried on.

That's a bit of a back-of-a-fag-packet analysis and I'm not really interested in debating it further, but it was certainly how a lot of people here at the time saw things and I have quite a fair degree of sympathy for them. After Putin came to power, the 2000s in relative terms represented a return to stability and even prosperity. That was why he became so popular, and it explains a lot of people's attitudes towards him.

Pretty well everyone I know here thinks that the war is a bad thing and they'd desperately love it to be over. However, a large contingent are inclined to trust Putin and to believe that Russia should end the war when he says. I don't think you can understand this position without the above background - even if you decide it's ultimately bollocks.
 

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