Prediction:
1. Putin orders the use of a tactical nuke.
2. Military refuse and let the fact be known.
3. Putin orders the refuseniks to be shot.
4. Military refuse.
5. Chaos in the Kremlin.
6. Putin falls.
It will be a red line for China too, I suspect.
There seems to be the regular news with Ukraine on the offensive and others I have seen on you tube (Gardner?) saying Ukraine is fast running out of men and the west are short of ammo to send them and they could collapse.They're fighting your war against Russia for you Idaho (You as in the US).
I think we've all had our eyes opened as to how powerful and proficient Russia really is. They are left to fight a war with 'meat grinder' tactics and nuclear threats (well, we have some of those as well........lots of them).
By putting sanctions in place and supplying the military hardware, you can seriously weaken your old adversary without putting boots on the ground and having the media revel in the body bags coming home.
As to where does it go.
I'd be surprised if NATO are drawn in, I can't see Russia wanting that.
How long can Ukraine keep fighting a war of attrition? I don't know.
How could an end to fighting be agreed without Ukraine keeping its lands?
Putin will not walk away from this emptyhanded by choice.
I guess if the US said at some point in the future, there would be no more support unless Ukraine agreed to give up areas of land for a peaceful solution, but I'm not sure what the reaction to that would be.
On cueIt will be a red line for China too, I suspect.
Agree. Just posturing from the nonceIt will be a red line for China too, I suspect.
China completely owns him, and China craves global stability (up to a point) as a matter of policy and instinct.Agree. Just posturing from the nonce
It would end the conflict quickly if he didChina completely owns him, and China craves global stability (up to a point) as a matter of policy and instinct.
The deployment of any nuclear weapon is not wholly in accordance with that aim!
Well done Blue. Austin is a nice place to end up as well with such a great music scene...and plenty of sunshine.We took a Ukrainian refugee in last July. She had a hard life. Birth defects from Chernobyl and the Russians paid just enough to keep the survivors alive and quiet. Hard to navigate the constant attacks on civilian targets back home and keep going forward. But she got a promotion this week (she’s a lab tech keeping blood supplies safe) and said she never dreamed she would ever have a job this good. Nice to have some sunshine in the midst of the gloom.
We differ in opinion. Time will tell. As you point out - using nukes isn't without risk - it's sort of a last resort option. I think he's nearly reached that point - further that he wants to use nukes - and finally - that no one in his orbit will argue against their use.No chance. He's not ordering it, because his regime is almost certain to fall if he does.
As pointed out above, if it were such a good option for him, why hasn't he done it already, given that his military has been decimated?
We differ in opinion. Time will tell. As you point out - using nukes isn't without risk - it's sort of a last resort option. I think he's nearly reached that point - further that he wants to use nukes - and finally - that no one in his orbit will argue against their use.