Your argument is entirely rational. But we're dealing with an irrational dictator, losing, or at least not making any progress in a war which is probably existential for him.Sure, but there's no evidence to support your opinion, and a lot that very clearly refutes it.
Nuclear blackmail has served Putin very well - Nato would long ago have entered the war without it.
Nuclear use by Putin has the opposite consequence; there's no way it would not engender a massive response, even if conventional.
Then there's the fact that it probably wouldn't work militarily. The front line is 100s of miles long and he can hardly nuke the whole of it. And his poorly equipped and trained troops are hardly in position to act with the discipline and material necessary to win on an irradiated battlefield.
But it's simpler that that.
We know how Putin reacts to losing on the battlefield, because he's shown us several times. He claims to be winning, changes his definition of victory, blames everyone else and continues regardless.
Unless Ukraine marches on Moscow, any should this change?
Your argument is entirely rational. But we're dealing with an irrational dictator, losing, or at least not making any progress in a war which is probably existential for him.
In truth - I think that deployment of nukes is maybe 30% likely or so - but for me - it's really conceivable that he'd use them.
You are rather assuming that Putin acts logically!No chance. He's not ordering it, because his regime is almost certain to fall if he does.
As pointed out above, if it were such a good option for him, why hasn't he done it already, given that his military has been decimated?
You are also assuming that he will still have the authority to do so when it reaches that stage.Your argument is entirely rational. But we're dealing with an irrational dictator, losing, or at least not making any progress in a war which is probably existential for him.
In truth - I think that deployment of nukes is maybe 30% likely or so - but for me - it's really conceivable that he'd use them.
—The murder of senior managers in state enterprises.What part of Putin's actions have been irrational?
Ill- informed, perhaps, but irrational?
That’s not irrational. He’s acting like every Russian dictator ever. He’s working to his plan, it might seem illogical to us but it’s not to him. He’s a cold blooded sociopath who needs stopped asap.—The murder of senior managers in state enterprises.
—Witholding ammo from the mercenaries in Bakhmut
—Launching army call up but leaving the borders open.
—Using that big table to keep Covid away.
—The murder of senior managers in state enterprises.
—Witholding ammo from the mercenaries in Bakhmut
—Launching army call up but leaving the borders open.
—Using that big table to keep Covid away.
That could actually be the most rational thing he's done ;-)—Using that big table to keep Covid away.
Fair point!