China's game may well be waiting for Russia to break up in a few years. They would take the mongolian states as part of the PRC. The rest? Who knows what might happen. TBH, on the quiet.... I think the west has done extraordinarily well for itself in a short period of time - in geopolitical terms, anyway.
I wish I could say I felt the same about the UK, but it looks too me like Brexit will be associated with us a period that sees us falling off the pace. It was incredibly silly of Russia to start this fight. They are dwarfed on either side by the west, and China. Why pick a fight? They needed to forge an economic and political approach to using good relations with us AND China to their advantage. It's sad that Putin's methods, and the needs of his kleptocrats, meant he was anathema to us, meaning he only sought to protect himself from our style of democracy and justice.
But it's also very silly of us to have given up our position as America's obvious stepping stone towards dealing with the EU.
I can't help but think how significant Taiwan is. In name, it's part of China. But really, it is the world centre for semiconductor manufacture, performing cutting edge technical manufacturing jobs almost exclusively for the West. Even the pro-CCP politicians in Taiwan - once firmly pro-reuniting with the PRC - are now backing down from that aim. There's no political path for the CCP gain any real influence and/or control. The next generation of Taiwanese voters would seem very unlikely to favour it.
It's that sort of thing, plus the west succesfully blocking China's access to cutting edge chip manufacture tech, that makes me think maybe reuinting the Chinese ethnic populations in the Mongolian states with the homeland would be the sort of popular achievement that would help secure the Chinese leadership's position if the population started feeling their nation was at a technological disadvantage to the west.
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