The Russian winter offensive has entirely failed. We can see that in all sectors. No matter whether you look at Vuhledar, Kreminna, Kupyansk, Zaporizhzhia and, yes, even Bakhmut the Russian advances were little or not even existent. Russia wasted huge amount of resources and gained almost nothing in return. In the contrary, they are no more than ever under threat to lose more. But that's the next episode.
Based on all Russian attempts I have drawn maps of their intention. The operation, indeed, was aimed to take the entire Donbas, as well as all areas east of the Oskil river. I believe that Russians intended to execute this in 4 phases:
PHASE 1: Strike and breakthrough Ukrainian lines at Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avidiivka, Marinka and Vuhledar and encircle the cities of the 1st defense line
PHASE 2: Break the resistance of those cities and move deeper into Ukrainian space. Starting to encircle the 2nd line of defense, most notably Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
PHASE 3: Break Ukrainian resistance at 2nd line of defense. Take over of Kramatorsk/Sloviansk, clear out all remaining Ukrainian units east of Oskil river and launch attack on Pokrovsk and Dobropillya
PHASE 4: Strike and take over of Pokrovsk and Dobropillya. Clear out all remaining pockets and conquer the rest of Donetsk Oblast. End of all offensive operations and fortify this position.
Political Conclusion: Declare victory and offer cease fire and demand this to be the new border or line of contact. The areas of the Kharkiv Oblast stay under Russian rule, in exchange for Ukraine keeping Kherson and Zaporizhzhia city.
If this Russian operation would have succeeded Russia would have not only gained 13,000 km² of land but also would have neutralized the bulk of the Ukrainian army.
Reality: A bold plan which never made it even over phase 1. Epic disaster for Russia
