Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jrb]

Thanks for all the updates everyone. Add a few myself when I find some interesting stuff.

Question, if anyone has an idea?

How downgraded is the Russian army in reality? Nuclear missiles aside, they‘ve still got a substantial airforce and navy. They must have 100,000’s of troops still in reserve as they’ve been using prisoners and recruits as canon fodder. I appreciate their tanks and other vechicles have taken a pounding since the war started. Many thanks if anyone can answer the question.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Ammo depot destroyed in the centre of Luhansk.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[CTID1977]

 

[CTID1977]

 

[CTID1977]

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Wonder who was in the middle of the explosion....NO ESCAPE.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[FlemishDuck]

Should Ukraine really hit targets on the scale that ex Russian commander predicts deep in Russia, I wonder if Russia respond with something really nasty in Ukraine like a tactical nuke?

The point where Russia might start using tactical nukes, is when Ukraine drives into Russia propper with massed forces. It is simply a whole different matter, diplomaticly atleast, if you nuke youre own country and in supposed self defense or atleast against what could be construed as an existential threat. Every country afcourse has the right to nuke itself, there is few to argue against that. Typically nuclear powers will abhor the offensive use of nukes in any scenario and especially in one where they have no interrest in, but by doctrine accept that they have a defensive purpose against a existential threat (at which point you dont wait to use them by the time they are at the gates of Moscow, or the red square itself, or inside the Kremlin) and that besides this their purposse is also to act as a detterent to such a existential threat. So even as a point to make, Russia would want to confirm that nukes are valid as a detterent to Ukraine pushing army's into Russia propper, probaly atleast use a nuke to make a point, and few Nuclear powers would want to deny that nukes can validly be used in this fashion or they would feel having nukes is kinda pointless. it would probably be overkill, but merely meant symbolicly anyway, and cerntaintly give pause to it's enemy's as how to go further.

All this is rather frustrating, it means that beyond Ukraine Russia is kinda untouchable, they have this line of safety behind which they can retreat. It's extremely heartbreaking knowing that Russia likes to deport and abduct Ukranians to Russia including children, and there is few in terms of leverage to be gained by Ukraine as to ever get those people back.

I'm glad btw. that the UK gives such strong support to Ukraine, and that this is wholeheartedly supported by it's citizins. Even when reflecting on the break in Europe that was Brexit, it's good to understand that we remain united versus this kind of dirtbags, if even that the Uk gives some further stimulation to France and especially Germany to do more, which can make us in part reflect on what it means to take a Leadership role in Europe in this context. I think it's a very positive development for the reputation and stature of the UK within Europe.

 

[Plays By Sense Of Smell]

The point where Russia might start using tactical nukes, is when Ukraine drives into Russia propper with massed forces. It is simply a whole different matter, diplomaticly atleast, if you nuke youre own country and in supposed self defense or atleast against what could be construed as an existential threat. Every country afcourse has the right to nuke itself, there is few to argue against that. Typically nuclear powers will abhor the offensive use of nukes in any scenario and especially in one where they have no interrest in, but by doctrine accept that they have a defensive purpose against a existential threat (at which point you dont wait to use them by the time they are at the gates of Moscow, or the red square itself, or inside the Kremlin) and that besides this their purposse is also to act as a detterent to such a existential threat. So even as a point to make, Russia would want to confirm that nukes are valid as a detterent to Ukraine pushing army's into Russia propper, probaly atleast use a nuke to make a point, and few Nuclear powers would want to deny that nukes can validly be used in this fashion or they would feel having nukes is kinda pointless. it would probably be overkill, but merely meant symbolicly anyway, and cerntaintly give pause to it's enemy's as how to go further.

All this is rather frustrating, it means that beyond Ukraine Russia is kinda untouchable, they have this line of safety behind which they can retreat. It's extremely heartbreaking knowing that Russia likes to deport and abduct Ukranians to Russia including children, and there is few in terms of leverage to be gained by Ukraine as to ever get those people back.

I'm glad btw. that the UK gives such strong support to Ukraine, and that this is wholeheartedly supported by it's citizins. Even when reflecting on the break in Europe that was Brexit, it's good to understand that we remain united versus this kind of dirtbags, if even that the Uk gives some further stimulation to France and especially Germany to do more, which can make us in part reflect on what it means to take a Leadership role in Europe in this context. I think it's a very positive development for the reputation and stature of the UK within Europe.

I wonder if the rashists did nuke Ukraine, whether they may as well invoke contingency plans and push into the country pretty directly to cut the symbolic head off the snake? (i.e get to Moscow and proclaim the government broken/banished.)

Sounds simpler than it is of course, but if the red army is so crap, and all bets are off, would it be an option to (tactically) berserk them?

If you've nothing to loose, but lots to dish out...?

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Klishchiivka,Southwest Bakhmut.....there will be Russian POWs.

Slava Ukraini.

 

[FlemishDuck]

I wonder if the rashists did nuke Ukraine, whether they may as well invoke contingency plans and push into the country pretty directly to cut the symbolic head off the snake? (i.e get to Moscow and proclaim the government broken/banished.)

Sounds simpler than it is of course, but if the red army is so crap, and all bets are off, would it be an option to (tactically) berserk them?

If you've nothing to loose, but lots to dish out...?

Any breakup of Russia into a number of smaller yet all nuclear armed states would likely appear as a worse scenario to all outsiders, probably the same applies to the idea of a perpetually Rogue Russia. Whereas the way to end the war from within is fairly simply = Putin out. The more likely scenario is that the elite enabling Putin would safe their beans with some change at the top, forced if needed, at the end of the day it wouldn't be too hard to pass this whole war off as "Putin's Idea", "Putins fault" and while that might not change much to Russias leadership, for the west this would likely suffice (from a stoic and pragmatic pov) if it also comes with a withdrawel of the Russian army from Ukraine and some further settlements trough peace negotiations. It's rather that it would be expected that for the Russian leadership it would be easiest to sell a defeat in Ukraine domesticly "as long as they can all blame it on Putin", while still being able to retain their own interrests.

I'm pretty sure btw that China, although having expressed some support to Russia, also made a threat to Russia so to refrain from using nukes in an offensive fashion. It never benifits an outside nuclear power to see the potential of a global nuclear exchange increase for a matter that is not of their national interrest. One of the best example's of such restraint to Nuclear warfare is imho Brittains war with Argentina over the falklands, as it is really the only scenario in which a non nuclear power dared declaring war on a Nuclear power. Afaik, the USA did support the Uk to some extend, though on the understanding that no nukes would be used, the more so because it appeared as a "geographicly limited conflict, with limited stakes". Why did the Uk not threaten to nuke Beunos Aires, starting off by vaporizing some smaller Argentinian town or some army base as example, and rather risk sending a task force on a somewhat hairy mission? Even taking in mind that this was a defensive war for the UK.