Russian invasion of Ukraine

[BlueAnorak]

But again any deal is pointless. Russia will see it as a Western weakness and just break it at some point in the future. They have to be driven out of UKR, including the Crimea, and handed their arse. Putin needs to suffer defeat and hopefully Russians finally get some degree of freedom from oligarchs robbing them blind.

You know the last bit isn't going go happen.
Russian people are cannon fodder for the elites.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I don’t think anyone has suggested a deal is something Ukraine should be seeking, more that if the Ukrainian offensive this summer we’re to fail, it will become politically impossible for the US, UK, France and Germany to support at the same level going forward, which ultimately would necessitate a ‘deal’.

That ‘deal’ would of course be Ukraine giving up a chunk of their land and likely Russia accepting NATO forces on the border, which Putin can still sell internally as a ‘win’.

But Russia won’t keep to any ‘deal’. This has been proven again and again. I don’t understand what is difficult to grasp about this.

Or do you actually believe they will?

 

[BlueAnorak]

I don’t think anyone has suggested a deal is something Ukraine should be seeking, more that if the Ukrainian offensive this summer we’re to fail, it will become politically impossible for the US, UK, France and Germany to support at the same level going forward, which ultimately would necessitate a ‘deal’.

That ‘deal’ would of course be Ukraine giving up a chunk of their land and likely Russia accepting NATO forces on the border, which Putin can still sell internally as a ‘win’.

Well they haven't started the offensive they've simply determined that the Mobik wave is exhausted and have stopped defending 24x7 now they can be more mobile with the mud drying up.
The Russians are struggling to cope.

 

[Koniec]

You know the last bit isn't going go happen.
Russian people are cannon fodder for the elites.

True dat. And we all suffer for it, the whole fucking globe. They came close in the 90s but Russia gonna be Russia. If the Republicans win the next USofA election shit will get worse.

 

[Iassel]

It would be very surprising if the Ukrainian offensive were to fail. The Russians have had all their best kit destroyed or captured and their best troops decimated. We even have the spectacle of Russian troops and Wagner mercenaries killing each other. Once the Ukrainian offensive starts in earnest with modern western weaponry and western trained troops the Russians will collapse faster than anyone can imagine. In my opinion of course. At that point I don’t see how Putin will be able to stay on. Whether it will be civil war or a plot from within the higher echelons of the Russian military I don’t know but I suspect the sixth floor awaits.

I wasn’t suggesting the offensive will fail, simply that that would be the point at which a deal would become inevitable - certainly right now nobody is talking about a deal which is what the original question was.

But Russia won’t keep to any ‘deal’. This has been proven again and again. I don’t understand what is difficult to grasp about this.

Or do you actually believe they will?

Well any deal would mean NATO troops on the new border, so it’s pretty certain they would keep to the deal - Putin is mental, but not mental enough to directly attack NATO.

He will write the deal off as a huge win for Russia and then go back to working on installing puppets in Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

He will write the deal off as a huge win for Russia and then go back to working on installing puppets in Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova.

The last part of your sentence is why we shouldn’t do business with the ****. He only understands one language.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Things not going so well fror Ukraine in Bakhmut proper. The Russians are raising what's left of the place block by block.

 

[west didsblue]

I wasn’t suggesting the offensive will fail, simply that that would be the point at which a deal would become inevitable - certainly right now nobody is talking about a deal which is what the original question was.



Well any deal would mean NATO troops on the new border, so it’s pretty certain they would keep to the deal - Putin is mental, but not mental enough to directly attack NATO.

He will write the deal off as a huge win for Russia and then go back to working on installing puppets in Latvia, Lithuania and Moldova.

You do realise that Latvia and Lithuania are in NATO?

 

[aguero93:20]

You do realise that Latvia and Lithuania are in NATO?

So are Hungary, so it doesn't stop him installing puppets tbf, just limits what he can do with them.

 

[west didsblue]

So are Hungary, so it doesn't stop him installing puppets tbf, just limits what he can do with them.

When this is over his influence over other countries will be more or less gone. If he stays in charge he’ll have to focus on keeping the Russian Federation together. I can see several of the republics that make it up using Putin’s weakness to their advantage and will look to breaking away, some with covert Chinese help.