Russian invasion of Ukraine

[SkyBlueFlux]

In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.

According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-western-assessment/index.html

Unfortunately, the sad fact of war is no matter how seemingly incompetent your enemy is, they are human and so given enough time they will learn from their mistakes.

People talk a lot about lack of fighting experience but if you throw enough men in the meat grinder then the ones who survive will be like the super bacteria who are more wily and cunning.

That said, I hope the above is more a symptom of preparedness and once the main front line dissolves the reserves go back into undisciplined panic mode. It could just be a grind to get that initial break.

 

[BlueAnorak]

It's the shear volume of mines to get through.
Slowly, slowly catchy monkey.

 

[CTID1977]

@Tendar
https://twitter.com/Tendar
I think it is no secret any more that one of the primary objectives of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been the strategic decimation of Russian supply bases and vital intersections. You just have to look at the map. All major targets are along the primary supply lines and many of them are only dust now.

The Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblast are getting methodically isolated and degraded, similar to how Kherson has been engaged and eventually liberated. The difference, however, is the magnitude which is several times bigger than back in November 2022.

This is exactly how you would pummel an enemy on a strategic scale before sending in the heavy cavalry.

 

[JamesMCFC]

I know the Russians have said crossing a certain line results in an escalation but surely at one point a line is going to get crossed?

 

[mosssideblue]

I know the Russians have said crossing a certain line results in an escalation but surely at one point a line is going to get crossed?

The Ruskies have been threatening escalation for ages. They are bluster

 

[CTID1977]

@Tendar
https://twitter.com/Tendar
In order to illustrate the impact of the (de facto) destruction of the Chonhar bridge we see the original path of a supply truck coming from the Dzhankoi to Melitopol in red and the remaining two alternatives in blue and yellow going through Armiansk. The supply lines have been almost doubled and they lead now through less useful roads then the main artery before.
https://twitter.com/Tendar
Double the time or half the supply in the same time equals to strategic degradation, not mentioning Ukrainian partisans having now their chances doubled to interfere.
https://twitter.com/Tendar

 

[JamesMCFC]

The Ruskies have been threatening escalation for ages. They are bluster

I hope so mate. I just can't see how this is going to end no side will give up

 

[mosssideblue]

I hope so mate. I just can't see how this is going to end no side will give up

Ukrine will prevail, but I can see Putin blowing the NPP before his withdrawal

 

[CTID1977]

a moment before...looks like ATACMS, no?

 

[metalblue]

Apologies if already posted. Couple of videos from the trenches here.

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-06-21/inside-the-trenches-on-the-ukrainian-frontline