Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorton_Tubster]

Most of these points were made in Feb/Mar 2022.

Their economy would collapse with all the sanctions.
The airline industry would collapse within weeks with no spares.
The people wouldn't be able to eat or cloth themselves.
Putin wouldn't survive long.

Yet here we are 18 months on, and they still have a working economy, their airliners are still flying (albeit to a far smaller audience).
The people don't seem to have suffered (apart from the poor buggers sent to the front line).
Putin is still in charge, surrounded by many of the same cronies he was the begining.

Their demise was greatly exaggerated sadly.

18 months ago the Russian economy was a lot healthier. The rouble is now trading at 100 dollars, it's worth nothing, and even the new trade with China and India etc doesn't cover the loss through sanctions and that's without also the loss due to the continued global slow down in trade in oil. They're literally selling their goods cheaply just to be able to sell.

Coupled with the political pressure for putin and Russia... its looking like he/ they have got nowhere to turn.

The scene was very different 18 months ago.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Most interesting is how Rusia are going to cope internally. Its clear the rouble is tanking I am not sure how much more economic damage they can take.

But also Putin now attacking his far right nationalists, putting Girkin in jail, killing Prygozhin, these were guys that the russian people listened to. That leaves Putin on his own now.

Putin has gone from control via ideology to control through fear. Everyone has to love Putin, or else.

I think he#'s toast in a few months.

A Russian retirement plan is in order.
The problem is who replaces him? The successor could be worse.

 

[JOGAMIGMOG]

Most of these points were made in Feb/Mar 2022.

Their economy would collapse with all the sanctions.
The airline industry would collapse within weeks with no spares.
The people wouldn't be able to eat or cloth themselves.
Putin wouldn't survive long.

Yet here we are 18 months on, and they still have a working economy, their airliners are still flying (albeit to a far smaller audience).
The people don't seem to have suffered (apart from the poor buggers sent to the front line).
Putin is still in charge, surrounded by many of the same cronies he was the begining.

Their demise was greatly exaggerated sadly.

Probably because the sanctions are too lenient!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

A Russian retirement plan is in order.
The problem is who replaces him? The successor could be worse.

Any successor will come under immediate pressure to change things and make life better. Only withdrawal from Ukraine and talks with the west can do that.

Assuming the successor is a right wing nut job who wants to double down then they are very quickly going to be under more pressure than Putin. Russia could go through various leaders in a short timescale.

 

[cleavers]

18 months ago the Russian economy was a lot healthier. The rouble is now trading at 100 dollars, it's worth nothing, and even the new trade with China and India etc doesn't cover the loss through sanctions and that's without also the loss due to the continued global slow down in trade in oil. They're literally selling their goods cheaply just to be able to sell.

Coupled with the political pressure for putin and Russia... its looking like he/ they have got nowhere to turn.

The scene was very different 18 months ago.

I'm aware of that, but was just pointing out that all these things were said 18 months ago, and very little seems to be different for those inside russia, they still work, they still eat, they still buy, and they still go on vacation, so whilst the rouble might have tanked towards the dollar, it seems business as (near to) normal inside russia.

 

[cleavers]

Probably because the sanctions are too lenient!

Doesn't help that they export oil to India, then we import it into the UK.

 

[CTID1977]

 

[RadcliffeRick]

I'm aware of that, but was just pointing out that all these things were said 18 months ago, and very little seems to be different for those inside russia, they still work, they still eat, they still buy, and they still go on vacation, so whilst the rouble might have tanked towards the dollar, it seems business as (near to) normal inside russia.

If you want to keep the population onside, keep them well fed with both food and propaganda.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I'm aware of that, but was just pointing out that all these things were said 18 months ago, and very little seems to be different for those inside russia, they still work, they still eat, they still buy, and they still go on vacation, so whilst the rouble might have tanked towards the dollar, it seems business as (near to) normal inside russia.

I suspect its dropping though. The initial response to the war with increased energy costs would have helped them. But over the last 12 months everything has been moving against Russia.

If you want to keep the population onside, keep them well fed with both food and propaganda.

Agree. But maybe the food will start to run out....

 

[RadcliffeRick]

I suspect its dropping though. The initial response to the war with increased energy costs would have helped them. But over the last 12 months everything has been moving against Russia.

Agree. But maybe the food will start to run out....

Possible but the shelves,are still well stocked with western foods and chocolate